In Pyongyang, when discussing the possibility of sitting down to discuss denuclearization, there is one example that is repeatedly cited: that of Muammar Gaddafi and the fate of Libya. In 2003, the Libyan dictator decided to abandon his program of weapons of mass destruction and hand over his nascent nuclear project to the West in exchange for normalizing relations with the United States and the lifting of sanctions. For a few years, the gesture was presented as a diplomatic success. But in 2011, during the Arab Spring, a NATO-led military intervention supported the rebels who eventually overthrew and killed Gaddafi. For Kim Jong-un, that outcome became a permanent warning: giving up the nuclear arsenal does not open the door to security, but to vulnerability. Since then, every time Washington raises the issue of denuclearization, North Korean propaganda recalls Gaddafi's "fatal mistake" as proof that surrendering the bomb is akin to signing a death sentence.
The bombings on Tehran and the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, have reinforced North Korea's conviction that countries challenging the US without a credible nuclear umbrella may eventually be exposed to operations aimed at decapitating their leadership. For Kim, his arsenal is not just power: it is survival. The centerpiece that ensures no force with technological superiority dares to execute a surgical strike against the regime's leadership.
While global attention focuses on the Middle East, Pyongyang has responded with its usual ritual: propaganda photos. This week, Kim Jong-un inspected his new5,000-ton destroyer, supervised missile tests with his teenage daughter, and pledged to accelerate the incorporation of nuclear weapons into the navy. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), North Korea may have around 50 nuclear warheads and enough fissile material for several dozen more. Its nuclear complex continues to grow, and its long-range solid-fuel missiles are becoming increasingly difficult to detect and even more challenging to neutralize.
The show of force coincides with joint US-South Korea exercises on the peninsula, but Seoul's real concern is elsewhere now. Local media captured on Wednesday how US troops dismantled THAAD and Patriot systems at Osan Air Base, 70 kilometers south of the capital, to send them to the Gulf. Shields designed to cover the South from Northern missiles are now being loaded onto C-17s bound for the Middle East, with the aim of protecting US bases from Iranian drone attacks.
There is much concern in Seoul that its main ally is dismantling Pacific air defenses for its war against Iran. "It is a precautionary measure in case Iran drastically increases its rate of retaliatory attacks," say US officials quoted in a Washington Post report.
This news has revived doubts about Donald Trump's security commitment to South Korea and Japan, key allies in East Asia. Tokyo is also on alert as they have seen guided-missile destroyers based at Yokosuka Naval Base, a southern port city, heading towards the Arabian Sea. "We cannot accept US bases in Japan becoming a launchpad for war in the Middle East," states a Japanese legislator. A statement also echoed by another South Korean politician, concerned about the uncertainty in their country regarding a potential reduction in defensive capabilities.
To what extent are the defenses of East Asia being sacrificed for the war in the Middle East? "China is also monitoring all these movements in real-time. Over 1,060 intelligence satellites of the People's Liberation Army track every move in Osan. They know which systems departed, which aircraft transported them, which routes they took, and which Gulf bases received them," says defense analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera. "Chinese military analysts have already linked the decrease in US interceptors to contingencies in Taiwan: if the US depletes its missile defense arsenal against $20,000 Iranian drones, what remains for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait where China can deploy the world's largest hypersonic arsenal?".