The far right has confirmed its rise in the local elections of May 15 in France, considered as a test for the 2027 presidential elections and whose impact could be felt throughout Europe. "The French people have risen to the occasion and have expressed their deep aspiration for change," declared Jordan Bardella, the heir of Marine Le Pen, upon learning of the first favorable estimates for the National Rally (RN) in the first round.
Bardella took advantage of the favorable wind to extend a hand "to the lists of the true right and to all those who reject the chaos of the far left and the dilution of their message within Macronism." "What has happened is the result of serious work and honest management in the service of the public interest," emphasized the co-leader of the RN, which some analysts interpreted as the launch of his own presidential candidacy.
Paris provided a contrast for the night, with the victory in the first round of the socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire over the hard-line candidate from The Republicans, Rachida Dati (37% to 25%). Despite the overall contraction of the left, the Socialist Party managed to revalidate at least 350 councilors in the first round and take the lead in cities like Strasbourg, Lens, or Montpellier.
Meanwhile, the battle continued to be fierce in Marseille, where the National Rally candidate Franck Allisio and the mayor of the left-wing coalition Benoît Payantied at 35.4%, in the most hotly contested battle that will have to be settled next Sunday in the second round.
The initial estimates meanwhile gave a crushing victory to the RN candidate Louis Alliot in Perpignan, with 51% of the vote in what was considered until now the main stronghold of the far right. In Toulon, the RN spokesperson Laure Lavalette was also the most voted with 42% of the preferences.
In Nice, the former leader of The Republicans Eric Ciotti was leading with almost 40% of the votes over the outgoing mayor, the centrist Christian Estrosi. Ciotti ran under the Union of the Rights of the Republic (UDR) banner, in alliance with Marine Le Pen's National Rally in several cities. The result in Nice was seen as a testbed for a supposed unity of right-wing forces for the presidential elections.
Despite the general failure of centrist candidacies, the mayor of Le Havre and presidential hopeful Édouard Philippe seemingly emerged victorious with 43% of the vote. "We are starting the campaign!" were Philippe's last words, who stands out in the polls as the only moderate candidate capable of facing Le Pen or Bardella.
The turnout was relatively higher than usual for local elections, slightly above 50%. 90% of the municipalities presented only one or two lists, so a second round was not necessary. In large cities, lists that received support exceeding 10% guaranteed participation in the second round, where alliances are usually common.
Traditionally, moderate right and left parties (The Republicans and the Socialist Party) tend to perform better in municipal elections than in legislative elections thanks to loyal votes in their strongholds and voters' interest in local issues. However, on this occasion, the national political background - with Macron's unpopularity and ongoing government crises - may have had a significantly greater influence.
In Paris, the earliest to cast her vote was Rachida Dati, the candidate from The Republicans who will have to wait for the second round on March 22 to try to recover from the defeat in the first round against Emmanuel Grégoire, who voted at noon in an electoral college in the 12th district.
Two other candidates in Paris surpassed the threshold to participate in the second round: Sophia Chikirou, candidate for La France Insoumise (LFI) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who garnered over 13% support, and the moderate center candidate Pierre-Yves Bournazel reached 11%. The fifth candidate, Sarah Knafo, candidate of Reconquest (the far-right party in the parliamentary spectrum), fell behind with 9.9%.
In Marseille, under the impact of recent raids against drug trafficking, the National Rally (RN) candidate Frank Allisio denounced "irregularities" early on Sunday in several polling stations where supposedly French ID cards were not required to vote. The outgoing mayor Benoît Payan, who called his rival a "neo-fascist" during the campaign, was confident in retaining his mandate at the helm of his left-wing coalition Project for Marseille in the second round.
The Greens, who were the big surprise in 2020, hoped to retain at least their stronghold in Bordeaux and held hopes for Lyon, the third largest French city, where the outgoing mayor Grégory Doucet tied in the first round at 37.5% with the millionaire and populist Jean-Michel Aulas, former president of Olympique Lyonnais. The elections in Lyon were marked by the background of the death of the young nationalist Quentin Deranque a few weeks ago at the hands of far-left militants.