For former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, the local elections have been a true rehearsal for the 2027 presidential elections. He ran for Mayor of Le Havre for the third time, the port city in Normandy, and before the electoral appointment, he made a high-stakes bet: if he was not re-elected in his own stronghold, he would finally withdraw his candidacy for the Élysée.
In the end, it won't be necessary. Philippe won comfortably this Sunday with 47.71% of the votes, compared to 41.17% for his eternal rival, communist Jean-Paul Lecoq, and 11.12% for the National Rally candidate, Franck Keller. This result serves as a springboard for the real contest against Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella in next year's presidential elections.
Centrist candidates have suffered more than ever before due to the growing polarization of the French electorate in the recent elections, but Édouard Philippe has emerged on his own as the best-positioned moderate candidate to confront the rise of the far right.
According to a recent Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, Jordan Bardella (with 36%) and Marine Le Pen (34%) currently vie for the top spot in the preferences of French voters. Édouard Philippe is the only one following them, albeit at a considerable distance (16%), while the rest of the possible centrist contenders (Gabriel Attal, Gérald Darmanin, Sébastien Lecornu) fall below the 11% threshold, along with The Republicans leader, Bruno Retailleau, and left-wing candidates: the unsubmissive Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the moderate Raphaël Glucksmann.
In 2021, Édouard Philippe launched his own political platform, Horizons, integrated into the array of centrist parties that support Emmanuel Macron. However, last year he began a calculated distancing from Macronism, accusing the Élysée tenant of the country's political crisis and even speaking in favour of bringing forward the presidential elections.
For most French people, his turbulent term as Prime Minister between 2017 and 2020 is now a distant memory, coinciding with the Yellow Vests insurrection, the initial push for pension reform, and the scandal of favouritism in Covid contracts. Philippe himself acknowledged the contrast these days between his fierce campaign for the local elections in Le Havre in 2020, where he had police protection at all times, and the more or less relaxed encounters with his voters in 2026, in those small municipal forums where he excels.
"Understanding local reality is a great help in understanding national reality", Philippe argued against those who criticised him for using his position as Mayor of Le Havre (which he once held simultaneously with that of Prime Minister) as a mere springboard for the presidential elections. "One can love and be committed to their city and country: seeing a contradiction in that is absurd," defended the potential Élysée candidate. "The truth is that a politician rooted in their community and land, who understands local realities, is likely to address the country's problems in a more serene and reasonable manner."
"The only reason I might stop being Mayor of Le Havre would be if in 2027, and this does not seem like an easy scenario, I were to become president," Philippe admitted to his potential voters. "I almost dare not say it, knowing how difficult the task would be. If that were the case, I don't think it would be bad for Le Havre."
Born in nearby Rouen in 1970, Édouard Philippe has proven to be, against all odds, a prophet in his own land, despite his personal vicissitudes (including vitiligo and alopecia areata, which have quickly altered his appearance) and despite the clear setback of centrist parties against the rise of the far right.
"Those who seek to boost the National Rally are producing an effect that is not what they intended", Philippe defended against attempts to sabotage his aspirations as Mayor to ultimately end his presidential candidacy, the only one that could currently overshadow Le Pen or Bardella in a second round.
In his own way, former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has also used the local elections to boost his candidacy as leader of The Republicans, rejecting Bardella's offer of a right-wing union. Justice Minister, Gérald Darmanin, a former protege of Sarkozy who defected to Macronism, also made headlines with the spectacular anti-drug operation in Marseille. Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, with the stamp of La France Humaniste, has also gained ground with his interventions against the Iran war. The lost centre has no shortage of suitors, but the polarization of the French electorate - with some local exceptions - is becoming increasingly evident.