May 7, 2025. Black smoke. Millions of faithful watch on television the outcome of the first vote of the conclave that must choose the next leader of the Catholic Church after a pontificate as charismatic and controversial as that of Pope Francis. What is disappointment on the outside turns into uncertainty inside the Sistine Chapel. The 133 cardinal electors, those members of the College of Cardinals who have not yet turned 80 and have the right to vote, are restless.
The reason is that 30 candidates received some votes, but only three exceed twenty. There is confusion due to the unexpected nature of the first ballot: the three most voted cardinals defy all predictions for one reason or another. Here is the ranking:
1. Peter Erdö. A 72-year-old Hungarian and representative of the most conservative theological wing, is the cardinal with the most support.
2. Robert Francis Prevost. An American with Peruvian nationality, 69 years old, and close to Bergoglio. His original passport had ruled him out.
3. Pietro Parolin. A moderate who has served as Secretary of State for the influential faction of the Italian cardinals. The same age as Prevost, he is the top favorite for many, so his third place is disappointing for his aspirations.
Under Michelangelo's frescoes, none of those present knows what will happen and if the successor of Peter, who will need 89 votes (two-thirds), will be able to unite the different sensitivities of the Church. Many will not sleep well that night facing what seems to be a long and very tough conclave.
Although this process, the most fascinating religious, spiritual, and political event in the world, is secret - cum clave in Latin means "under lock and key" - we know what happened in the most recent one. Journalists Gerard O'Connell and Elisabetta Piqué reveal in The Last Conclave (Ed. Arpa) the maneuvers, pressures, and intrigues experienced during the unexpected election of Leo XIV. They have sources that were part of the votes and demanded under oath that their identity not be revealed.
The two authors, who are a couple, talk about this real thriller via video conference from their home in Rome. They know a lot about the subject. These are their credentials: Gerard O'Connell is the Vatican correspondent for America Magazine and one of the most respected journalists in the English-speaking world on religious matters, while Elisabetta Piqué has been working as a correspondent in the Holy See and in Italy for the Argentine newspaper La Nación for over 20 years.
"It is very important to understand that this conclave has been the largest and most diversified in history, so anything could happen," announces O'Connell.
Undoubtedly, many things happened within its walls, even some surreal. Like when in a recount, more votes were identified than voters. The cardinal who confessed to accidentally slipping in two stuck ballots turned out to be Carlos Osoro Sierra, the emeritus Archbishop of Madrid. He apologized immediately, and the vote was annulled.
The first time these journalists heard the name of Cardinal Prevost as a possible successor to Francis was in March 2024, over a year before the conclave. Both were surprised. "He is papable because, although born in Chicago, he is not considered American," a cardinal participating in the conclave told them. At that time, Prevost was not on the radar of journalists covering the Vatican.
"Gerard was the only one among the major Vatican experts who had placed him in a prominent position in the conclave," proudly says Piqué. Following that tip, O'Connell began investigating Prevost's steps in Rome and realized that his influence was growing.
"Francis had noticed him, knew his pastoral work in a complicated diocese in Peru, and called him to Rome to place him in different dicasteries (ministries of the Vatican). He observed that he was someone skilled, calm, and very decisive," explains the Irish journalist. "Two years before his death, he appointed him prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, which is his elite group."
-Did Francis want him to be his successor?
-It is clear that a Pope cannot impose anyone for the next conclave, especially in one that seemed so complex, but there is no doubt that he wanted Prevost to have visibility and be known by the other cardinals, 80% of whom were appointed by Francis. That gave him support, but to be elected, how you behave within the conclave is also very important because you are being watched by everyone. From what we know, Prevost gained many votes from the undecided by showing great composure. That was well received.
No one knows what Jorge Bergoglio's intentions were, but there is no doubt that Prevost was "his final surprise".
As told in The Last Conclave, Bergoglio himself wanted to protect him. Aware of the Vatican saying "Who enters the conclave as Pope, leaves as a cardinal," he kept Prevost under the radar of the favorites. "That undoubtedly benefited him," acknowledges Piqué.
For this, he had the best shield: his nationality of origin. The Pope cannot be American. At least that was indicated by an unwritten rule that even the US cardinals acknowledged in their public statements, ruling themselves out before the conclave for fear that the Church would be identified with the interests or geopolitical influence of the great world superpower. That was Prevost's shield, but it remained to be seen what made him an attractive candidate for cardinals from all corners who had never seen him before.
His work in Peru as a pastor was undeniable and highly recognized, but he had another quality that put him ahead of some of his rivals. "The cardinals wanted someone with government experience, and Prevost had it, he had led a diocese and also served as head of the Augustinians for a couple of terms," says O'Connell. "A point that put him ahead of Parolin, who was a diplomat without management experience."
Prevost's good positioning for the crucial days of the conclave was not without difficulties. The American did not escape the Vatican's internal politics, which made Spanish politics seem like a schoolyard in the months leading up to the conclave when some cardinals identified him as papabile. That's where he was in danger.
"Prevost gained many votes from the undecided by showing great composure in the conclave. That was well received by many cardinals."
Those responsible for torpedoing his candidacy were the media linked to the Sodalitium Christianae Vitae, a powerful and controversial Catholic and lay movement founded in Peru in 1971, also active in the United States, which was dissolved by Francis. Their members spread "rotten" information about Prevost through their channels. Accusations circulated about him regarding possible cover-ups of sexual abuse cases in Peru and the US, although an investigation by the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith concluded that they were baseless.
He was luckier in this regard than another top favorite: the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, a representative of the thriving Asian Catholicism. Close to Bergoglio, his chances as a candidate vanished before entering the Sistine Chapel when a scandal erupted at Caritas Internationalis, which he led, following an external audit that revealed management problems, a poor work environment, and deficiencies in the organization's administration. It also did not help him in the eyes of the more orthodox cardinals that a video of him singing John Lennon's Imagine at a mass that seemed like a karaoke was leaked on the internet.
As the conclave progressed, Prevost became the main candidate, almost the only one. It remains to be seen if the conclave will be prolonged.
-Is it true that Parolin generously asked his supporters to vote for Prevost? -we ask the experts.
-That was leaked by the Italian media, but according to our sources, it is false.
O'Connell demonstrates by debunking that myth the constant fog that surrounds the information of the Holy See, always populated with many more rumors than certainties. "Italian journalists went through the same thing in 2013 with their candidate Scola, they only speak with sources from their country," says Piqué. "Gerard knew from the beginning that Parolin was not a favorite because the numbers didn't add up: he didn't have the votes that were attributed to him before the conclave."
One of the displays of the new pope's personality is evident in the book just before he was elected. That day, after lunch, a few hours before the vote that seemed definitive to reach 89 votes, many cardinals went to rest in their rooms. Then Prevost started writing the speech he would give from the balcony of St. Peter's that 1.4 billion Catholics would listen to. Unlike Bergoglio, he didn't want to improvise. "His meticulous character is evident in all his speeches: he doesn't change a single comma when he delivers them," says Piqué.
-Does the new Pope have many enemies within the Church?
-Internal struggles within the Church will always exist. There are always differences of opinions and many complexities. All the popes of the last century have encountered internal resistances and he will not be an exception. León XIV knows that polarization floods the world and also the Church, as from the most conservative sector, Francis was accused of polarizing. He wants to avoid that. That's why in his speech there are two key words: peace and unity.
His tone is indeed very different from that of Francis, but according to this couple, they share many common points: both in their fight against social injustices, as well as in other aspects, such as treatment of immigrants or concern for climate change.
The role of the new Pontiff in a world in flames is more reminiscent of The Shoes of the Fisherman, the novel by Morris West that was portrayed in the cinema by Anthony Quinn, in which a pope from a superpower - in this case the Soviet Union - is elected, than the internal tension in the recent Conclave at the Vatican.
"We liked Conclave, we watched it long before we came up with the idea of writing the book together and we found it entertaining, with excellent actors and setting, although with some exaggerations," admits Piqué, and then adds: "Although reality, as can be seen in the book, often surpasses fiction...".