In the frantic race that the months leading up to the Oscars have become -oh, Karla Sofía Gascón; oh, Timothée Chalamet- predicting the names that will be announced at the Kodak Theatre gala has become an almost titanic task. Nothing, not even the biggest success at previous galas, guarantees the golden statuette. But there are still some unwritten rules that bring a film closer to glory. And it is possible that in a few days, all of them will have been shattered.
Because The Sinners -Sinners in its original title- is determined to do so. The film by Ryan Coogler, already holding the record for nominations (16), has positioned itself as the top favorite for triumph in the final stretch of the Oscar campaign, with the gap with Another Battle After Another gradually narrowing. Of the few unwritten rules that are believed to still stand, the racial vampire film fulfills none. And its director knows it. "If I know that the statistics will sadden me, I don't think about them," he stated in an interview with Variety a few days ago.
The first of these rules is that the winning film has its premiere at one of the major film festivals: Cannes, Venice, Toronto, Sundance... Out of the last 20 Oscar-winning Best Pictures, only Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan's blockbuster, did not follow that path. The Sinners did not either. It went straight to theaters on April 16, grossing $200 million in less than a month at the box office between the United States and Canada, and a public screening was organized on May 29 at the Clarksdale Cultural Capital. Does that mean it went through a festival? Not exactly. Because that was a cultural event organized by the residents of this town of just 14,000 inhabitants in Mississippi - the same state that inspired the film - with a majority of Black residents. Coogler responded to their call after a letter went viral asking him to screen the film so that these same residents could see themselves on screen. No red carpets or photocalls.
The release date of The Sinners is another key to breaking the supposed rules that lead to an Oscar. Traditionally, favorite films hit theaters in September, October, or November to gain momentum towards awards season, which unofficially kicks off in early January. Although this has been changing in recent years, no film had premiered as early as this one and arrived so well positioned. The film will reach the gala 11 months after its theatrical release and just one month after the previous edition of the awards.
The genre of The Sinners, horror, also does not favor a winning candidacy, as history shows. In the 97 editions of the Oscars held so far, only one horror film has won the top prize: The Silence of the Lambs. And it wasn't even purely a horror film, but rather a psychological thriller. In fact, the last horror film nominated for Best Picture was in 2017, almost a decade ago, with Get Out by Jordan Peele. Another barrier that Coogler's vampires are willing to break.
And there is still the racial component. Exactly a decade ago, Moonlight won the most unexpected Oscar - even for those who announced it, as they first named La La Land - with Barry Jenkins as the director, the last Black director whose film was recognized. Two years earlier, Steve McQueen also achieved it with 12 Years a Slave. But Ryan Coogler aspires to a much higher ceiling with The Sinners: being the first Black filmmaker to win the Best Director award. The first in almost a century of awards. The first with a story that addresses Blackness from its core. The first with a film that breaks all unwritten rules.