It was of no use that Donald Trump promoted his tariffs during the electoral campaign that ultimately returned him to the White House: the stock market crisis was served yesterday from early morning, when European stock exchanges opened with declines that were maintained practically throughout the day. This was a continuation of the behavior of Asian stock exchanges, also in the red, and a prelude to Wall Street, which also did not take well that its president started his tariff war by targeting its trading neighbors, Canada and Mexico.
"The markets were counting on not facing high and widespread tariffs, but a more benign scenario of contained trade tensions and inflation," describes Roberto Scholtes, Chief Strategist at Singular Bank, who explains that "the stock markets now have to adapt to the new scenario, probably assuming lower growth, higher inflation, high Federal Reserve rates for longer, and corporate margins under pressure." He adds among his forecasts "high volatility and a tortuous consolidation process of the main indices until it becomes clear how the tariffs will actually end."
Precisely, volatility is a highlighted aspect by most analysts because it seems to be the only indisputable aspect of this situation: will Trump avoid taking measures that cause sharp declines in the stock markets and enter negotiations towards a less negative scenario, or will he continue to ignore its temporary (and immediate) impact on the markets?
"We will all be harmed if this scenario materializes, which threatens a combination of more inflation and weaker growth, loss of consumer purchasing power, and margins under pressure if companies absorb part of the tariff," concludes Scholtes. And although this remains a hypothetical scenario that has not yet materialized, subject to the decisions of the Trump Administration, analysts already identify potential losers: "The automotive, manufacturing, and technology sectors, due to their dependence on global supply chains and the rising cost of imported components," explains Armando Alvares, professor and researcher at the International University of La Rioja (UNIR). An effect confirmed in yesterday's stock market session, where major vehicle companies with plants in Mexico (Stellantis, BMW, Volkswagen, Renault, Ford, and General Motors) saw their market value decline.
"A negative impact is also expected in the energy sector, as tariffs on Canadian oil could disrupt prices and unleash inflation in the US, with the consequences of a domino effect." However, this effect will not apply to sectors such as basic consumption, luxury, and local production, "as tariffs promote import substitution and strengthen domestic demand," explains Alvares.
"Geopolitically, emerging markets and the BRICS bloc could seize the opportunity to consolidate new trade alliances outside the US. This opens a window of opportunity for the EU, a traditional trading partner of several countries in the group, such as Brazil. But for that to happen, a more pragmatic and less ideological approach would be necessary," concludes the university professor.
"In general terms, all companies with a presence in the US could potentially benefit from the expected tax cuts and in some cases could benefit from deregulation," explains César Sánchez-Grande, Institutional Director at Renta4, before explaining that "those financed in dollars would be negatively affected by the increase in costs (in a context of higher growth and greater inflationary pressures)." In the case of Spanish companies, although he points out that estimating effects at the present moment is complicated, he notes that for companies like Acerinox, the main stainless steel manufacturer in the US, the imposition of tariffs on the entry of stainless steel from Canada or Mexico would have a very consequent positive effect.
And as details are finalized or measures are finally implemented, "the markets will continue to be shaken by the flow of news," warn from Singular Bank, which will inevitably imply an "aggressive" positioning of speculative investors and in the midst of the publication of company results, "a risk of additional short-term declines."