The European NATO countries and Canada have decided to increase military aid to Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia so that the Kiev government can negotiate with Moscow "from a position of strength," as stated by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after the emergency summit in London that brought together the heads of state and government of 15 allied countries of Ukraine (United Kingdom, 12 EU countries, Canada, and Turkey). The prime minister also announced that the UK will provide new aid to Kiev to purchase over 5,000 missiles.
It is a four-phase agreement that must be presented to the United States and must be endorsed by Washington. At this point, it is uncertain whether this will happen, given the personal confrontation between the government of Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski, broadcast live to the world during the verbal altercation in the Oval Office on Thursday.
Zelenski has shown signs in recent hours that he wants to restore the situation. And, in a completely unexpected message on his social network Truth, Donald Trump posted a column published in the American press on Sunday that seemed to declare his willingness to reopen negotiations with Kiev for an agreement on the exploitation of mines in both countries.
In contrast to Trump's chaotic messages, the agreement reached in London has four very clear points, although without any specific commitments from the parties. Two of these points are the preliminary steps to negotiation and can be summarized as an increase in European military and economic aid to Ukraine, so that, in Starmer's words, it can "position itself in the strongest possible stance" to "negotiate [with Russia] from a position of strength."
The last two points are about the implementation of the peace agreement, or, as Starmer stated, "ensuring peace when it arrives", which clearly indicates that, at least in theory, Europe is not in a hurry to achieve a ceasefire at any cost (as long as Ukraine pays the price), as the United States desires. The British Prime Minister was very clear on this point. "We have to learn from past mistakes," he stated, before affirming that "we cannot expect a weak agreement like the Minsk agreement", referring to the pact forced by Germany and France on Russia and Ukraine in 2014, which Moscow never complied with and easily broke.
These measures to maintain peace include, first and foremost, security guarantees to Ukraine that it will be defended in the event of a third Russian invasion or destabilization attempts by Moscow, the training and modernization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the creation of a "volunteer coalition", which will have military forces deployed in Ukrainian territory to defend it if necessary, potentially leading to a war with Russia. Starmer reiterated the British commitment to send troops to Ukraine by stating that they would deploy "boots on the ground and planes in the skies".
The agreement includes concessions to Russia and the United States and represents an explicit lowering of Zelenski's positions. NATO membership is not even mentioned. The same goes for the return of the territories lost by Ukraine in the wars of 2014 and the ongoing conflict since 2022.
Additionally, there is the issue of details. Starmer did not explain how Europe will tighten sanctions on Russia at a time when German companies have found a loophole in Central Asia and the Caucasus to export to Russia, bypassing the measures imposed on Moscow, while Greek shipowners maintain a fleet of ghost tankers that trade Russian oil worldwide.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that Germany is in recession largely due to the end of Russian natural gas, which Moscow sold to them at a secret price, more than 50% below the international market price.
Added to this is the major uncertainty of the United States. The European plan, which must be refined at an upcoming summit, as stated by the British Prime Minister, will be presented to Trump for his approval. The problem is that what was agreed upon in London directly clashes with what Washington is doing. The United States is negotiating directly with Russia, above Europe and, above all, Ukraine. Therefore, it seems unlikely that an ultranationalist government like Trump's would view favorably a plan different from his own, negotiated by a group of countries he despises and with the input of one - Ukraine - that he detests, to impose tough conditions on a world leader he admires: Vladimir Putin.
However, without the United States, all that has been negotiated in London is meaningless. Firstly, because if European soldiers are deployed in Ukraine, they will have to be under the protection of the American nuclear umbrella. Otherwise, they will be at the mercy of a nuclear power, Russia, which already threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in September 2022.
On that occasion, only warnings from the Biden administration deterred Moscow. Now, of the countries that would intervene in the peace agreement for Ukraine, only the United Kingdom and France possess nuclear weapons. However, their arsenals are relatively small and do not seem to be in good operational condition, especially the French arsenal.
In any case, who in Europe would be willing to go to a nuclear war for Kiev? Perhaps for that reason, Starmer emphasized on Sunday that "this effort must have strong support from the United States, which remains a reliable ally." Next Thursday, the EU may decide on a significant investment in its defense and cooperation with Kiev, as the first step towards building European Defense.
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