The US economy was the rocket that every Spanish company wanted to board in the last two years. The prospect of stagnation in the European economy and the expansive programs of the Government for Joe Biden in fields such as industry, infrastructure, and renewable energies made the country a target for companies of all sizes and sectors, as the booming consumption in a country with low unemployment (and high prices) made it very attractive for Spanish retail giants.
The increasing possibilities of a Donald Trump victory did not change the trend, but rather increased it, with hopes of pro-business policies and greater protection against trade tensions. In these first four months of the term, only one of the two theses has proven to be true, and now with the United States contracting its consumption and on the brink of recession, strategies need to be revised.
"There is no need to rush. Decisions and conclusions must be made in the medium term," says Juan Pablo Riesgo, EY Insights' responsible partner. The executive acknowledges a significant slowdown due to the loss of confidence in the economy but points out that the existing incentives are different for companies that are not there, which may consider now producing in the United States to avoid tariffs, and those that have already made investments.
"For those already there, I suggest they wait and see. They have already made their investment, they are leveraged there, and would have to bear the transaction costs of leaving those markets. We are already seeing a significant slowdown as a result of the loss of confidence; hopefully, this is temporary, and in a few years, it could recover. I suggest perhaps making cost adjustments," the executive points out. "Companies need to strengthen their analysis and strategy departments to have a vision of what is happening in the world," says Riesgo, who believes that one should not lose sight of the opportunity to open other markets, diversify suppliers, and occupy in Europe the place that the United States is leaving.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) approved by Joe Biden in 2022 created a legislative framework that many Spanish companies took advantage of to land in the United States or strengthen their position and grow in an economy seen by many as healthier. Spain has a notable tradition of industrial presence in the North American country. Antolin, CIE, and Gestamp have around thirty factories in the country, although the Riberas family company was in the process of selling its facilities after a revenue setback.
They are not the only sector that responded to Uncle Joe's call. Acerinox invested nearly $800 million last year to acquire Haynes, specialized in manufacturing advanced steel alloys, and announced an investment of another $200 million to create four new plants in the country. The country accounts for 50% of its revenue, compared to 7% in Spain. "Everyone already knows that we are becoming more American. We are the largest manufacturer in the US, melting almost half of all stainless steel in North America," said its CEO, Bernardo Velázquez, a few weeks ago in an interview with Actualidad Económica. Tubacex has a similar image, with two factories in the country and has managed to become a defense supplier, with half of its revenue coming from the country.
In the energy world, the pace has not slowed down. Iberdrola is one of the most active in US soil. On March 11, it announced a $20 billion investment plan in the country. However, in regulated markets, a market that can be perceived as a refuge in these scenes of uncertainty and has protected the company's action. Other companies like Naturgy have also invested
The other major Spanish stronghold in the United States is construction companies. Ferrovial has been listed on the Nasdaq since 2024, and 80% of its business is already in North America. ACS has a similar exposure, generating 23,000 of its 41 billion euros in revenue in the land of the stars and stripes.
Other companies such as Acciona, Sacyr, or OHLA have also set their sights on the US market, where there are concerns that Trump's crusade against public spending may harm the level of infrastructure investments.
Mango, Inditex, and the consumption slowdown
The sector where more alarms could be raised is consumption; after all, airlines and IAG, for example, have been among the most affected. The two giants of retail and fashion in Spain have set their sights on the country and are committed to continuing to do so.
In the case of Inditex, its CEO, Óscar García-Maceiras, stated last Friday that the company was accustomed to dealing with geopolitics and would not slow down its ambition to open more stores in the United States. "This year, we will open new centers in Boston or Los Angeles, and in 2026, we will reach the 26th state with an opening in North Carolina," he pointed out. In March, he even opened the door to manufacturing in the country.
Mango is in a similar line. The company exceeded 30 stores last year and plans to make the United States one of its top three markets by 2026. "Mango will analyze and address in the best possible way, just as it does with the specific situations of the 120 markets where it operates," sources from the company point out.
The US is a strategic country for the company and a key market in our expansion plans in the coming years, and we are convinced that we have a differential value proposition with tremendous potential in the country.
In the Spanish financial sector, Banco Santander is the entity with the greatest and clearest exposure in the US. The group chaired by Ana Botín has bet in recent years on the North American country as one of the pillars of its future project. This commitment includes the launch five months ago of Openbank, the launch of its Drive platform - for car financing - or its recent alliance with Verizon, where the operator's customers who subscribe to Openbank savings products benefit from discounts on their bills.
In this context, Botín herself acknowledged at the shareholders' meeting held last Friday that the bank is "monitoring the implications of recent announcements in the United States regarding tariffs," that these announcements reflect an "increase in trade tensions," and that at the beginning of 2025, they have seen "an increase in geopolitical uncertainty and high volatility in markets worldwide." Nevertheless, the Cantabrian group trusts its "diversification" to face this scenario and maintains the growth objectives set for the year. In the US, Botín expressed confidence in the growth potential of Openbank, stating that it has already "exceeded our expectations" and that the bank is "optimizing" its funding base.
However, in a recent brochure sent to the CNMV (National Securities Market Commission), Banco Santander elaborates on the possible risks of the macroeconomic and geopolitical context. Among other aspects, it acknowledges that "the group's growth, asset quality, and profitability, among others, may be adversely affected by the slowdown in some of the economies in which it operates and by volatile political and macroeconomic environments."
It also points out that "the new US administration has significantly increased and is expected to continue significantly increasing tariffs on international trade, creating a new scenario for trade relations and supply chains, which could result in lower global economic growth." "Growing protectionism and trade tensions, such as those experienced between the United States and China in recent years, could intensify, which could have a negative impact on the economies of the countries where the group operates and affect its operating results, financial situation, and prospects," it continued, an uncertain diagnosis shared by the EY partner "We now live in an international order where nothing can be taken for granted," a bad thing for an asset as fearful as money.