On March 9, the economist Mark Carney, an outsider with no experience in frontline politics, won his first-ever elections, primary elections that made him the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and provisional prime minister, succeeding Justin Trudeau. This Sunday, just seven weeks later, Carney has won the federal elections, probably the most decisive in the contemporary history of his country.
Carney has made history, succeeding where other parachutists, like the philosopher Michael Ignatieff, had failed before. Turning around a 25-point polling deficit in less than three months, reviving a sinking and drifting party without a leader, program, or hope. He did it because of his managerial profile and expertise in crisis. He did it with barely any time for the campaign, simply presenting himself as the best alternative for change from within a country suffocated by economic and social situations. Above all, he did it thanks to Donald Trump.
The U.S. president has been the decisive figure, something unprecedented in modern democratic history. On Monday morning, after weeks of silence without openly interfering in his neighbor's politics, once his hated Trudeau had stepped down, Trump returned to pressure as the polling stations opened. "Good luck to the Canadian people! Choose the man with the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power for free to the highest global level, and quadruple your car size, steel, aluminum, wood, energy, and all other businesses, without tariffs or taxes," he said, asking for votes... for himself. "If Canada becomes the beloved 51st state of the United States of America, artificial lines will disappear. Look at how beautiful this landmass would be. Free access without borders. All positive with nothing negative. That's how it was meant to be! The United States can no longer subsidize Canada with the hundreds of billions of dollars we have spent in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a state!" he said once again, mocking the neighboring country.
Thanks to the Trump factor, the most repeated name of the night, the liberal triumph is indisputable, even if it is still unclear whether it will lead to a solid minority government or not. The conservatives, the top favorites at the beginning of the year, leading in all polls after Justin Trudeau's fall and internal divisions, have indeed achieved an exceptional result, with over 41% of the votes and improving by at least 27 seats, which in the past would have been more than enough to win. But Carney has mobilized undecided voters and achieved a lot of 'strategic voting', taking it away from social democrats, greens, or even the Quebec independence vote.
"The United States wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. These are not empty threats. Trump is trying to break us so that the United States can take over us. That will not happen. It will never happen," Carney said past 1 a.m. local time, calling for national unity and praising his rivals. "Canada is more than a nation. We are, and always will be, a confederation, a sacred set of ideas and ideals grounded on practical foundations. We know we are not always perfect, but we always strive to be good. We do things because they are right, not because they are easy; we consider kindness a virtue, not a weakness. And most importantly, we know that our strength lies in our determination to work together as a country," he said, urging to forget "divisions and anger," he pointed out.
"Canadians have opted for a minority government with little room to maneuver. Therefore, I congratulate Prime Minister Carney for leading this minority government," Poilievre said, accepting defeat with absolute institutional respect. Holding back his supporters when they booed the rival's victory, he stated that "tonight we all come together as Canadians. We will do our job. While we will fulfill our constitutional duty to hold the government accountable and propose alternatives, we will always prioritize Canada in combating Trump's irresponsible tariffs and other threats (...) Always putting Canada first," he concluded his speech promising to continue fighting and making it clear that he wants to remain at the helm of the party, which will not be easy.
At the time of the dissolution of Parliament, the Liberals had 153 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, the NDP 25, and the Greens 2. There were also four independents and one vacancy. The provisional result tonight, dependent on postal votes and the latest numbers from territories that closed later, leaves some uncertainty. The Liberals rise to 167 seats, and if this is maintained in the final count, they could form a more or less stable alliance with the NDP social democrats, who have only secured 7 seats, as the majority is at 172. But if two dance, it would lead to precarious balances. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, acknowledging the very poor result (he lost it himself), announced amidst laughter and tears his resignation, congratulating the new prime minister and advocating for "unity over hatred, optimism over pessimism, hope above all else."
In 2004, Liberal Paul Martin won 135 seats, 20 short of the majority, and the same NDP that now has 10 seats won 19, one short of maintaining the balance of power. This led to many back-and-forths, confidence motions, and stabs, resulting in the government falling and the Tories regaining power in 2006.
Poilievre had it in the bag after Trudeau's downfall
In the last two years, Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, had been building a strong, solid, winning candidacy. He had it all set, after Trudeau's progressive downfall and what he represented. Due to the poor economic situation, criticism of diversity policies, immigration, and the wear and tear of environmental policies. Until Trump won the elections and began to disdain Canada and fantasize about annexing it to make Canada the 51st state of the USA.
His critics and enemies have compared Poilievre to Trump. His tone, style, language, and character have absolutely nothing to do with those of the American billionaire. But the agenda, messages, and even the iconography had too many similarities. "Canada first," "freedom," "change." An anti-system and somewhat populist discourse, against bureaucracy, decarbonization policies, talking about regaining sovereignty, increasing the military, regaining control of borders, limiting immigration, protecting national identity.
When Trump attacked the country, the liberals came out in force, stirred up patriotism, national pride. They offered resistance, returned tariffs, did not avoid the clash or back down. Overwhelmed by the pressure of seeing himself as the winner, indecisive, Poilievre did not do the same, becoming the third consecutive leader of his party to lose to the liberals. He opted for a much more measured tone, saying that the Republican president was wrong, but not with the same firmness.After more than two years traveling the country and laying the groundwork, I was convinced I was going to win, and that I would have to work with Trump for four years to try to lift the tariffs and get the situation back on track. And that it was better not to irritate the one who attacked Trudeau with cruelty day in and day out. The tactic didn't work.
Carney's victory has many interpretations and nuances. These elections and this vote have been marked by patriotism, anger, pride, sovereignty, and identity. They have not at all been an endorsement of the policies of the Liberal Party and the legacy of the outgoing government. They are not a backing of economic or environmental measures. Carney, a former central banker, an outsider, has positioned himself as the economic manager, the expert in crises and hostile economic situations. But if climbing back 25 points in the polls seemed difficult, trying to straighten out a stagnant, demotivated, furious, and disappointed country will be much worse.
It is expected that Carney will appoint a new cabinet in less than two weeks and will reconvene Parliament shortly after to present a new budget that includes the promised tax reduction for the middle class and legislation to eliminate federal barriers to interprovincial trade, a way to create a stronger internal market to reduce dependence on the US. But at the same time, during the campaign, the new prime minister promised to immediately start trade and security negotiations with the Trump administration, trying to prevent the next round of tariffs on cars and components, expected on May 3.
"We find ourselves once again at one of those crucial moments in history. Our old relationship with the United States, based on increasing integration, has come to an end. The global free trade system, anchored in the United States, which is not perfect but has contributed to prosperity for decades, has come to an end. They are tragedies, they are also our new reality. We have overcome the shock of American betrayal, but we must never forget the lessons: we must take care of ourselves and, above all, take care of each other.