The sky of Rome once again becomes a witness to History. Starting this Wednesday, all eyes are fixed on the world's most famous chimney, the only means of communication between the cardinals locked in the conclave and the 1.4 billion faithful eagerly awaiting the white smoke. The ritual from which the successor of Francisco in the Petrine ministry will emerge is as fascinating as it is unpredictable.
This Wednesday marks the beginning of the process that will end the 'sede vacante' period opened by the death of Francisco. The day will start at 10:00 with the 'Pro Eligendo Pontifice' mass, and in the afternoon, at 16:30, the elector cardinals will enter and close in the Sistine Chapel of the Vatican for the only vote of the day, with black smoke expected around 18:00 or 19:00, barring a major surprise.
In the following days, there will be two morning votes followed by a fumata indicating the result, and two afternoon votes with another fumata. This process will continue until we see the white smoke over St. Peter's Square. The approximate times to look to the sky are after 10:30 and after noon; in the afternoon after 17:30 and after 19:00, as announced yesterday by the Vatican spokesperson, Matteo Bruni.
Francisco was elected in 2013 on the fifth ballot at 19:06.
THE CANDIDATES AMONG THE MOST DIVERSE CURIA
The College of Cardinals is composed of 252 members, of which 133 have voting rights in this conclave for being under 80 years old (two retired for health reasons). Diversity is the hallmark of this conclave thanks to Pope Francis, who during his 12 years leading the Church appointed 107 of the voting cardinals, compared to 21 appointed by Benedict XV and five by John Paul II. The Argentine leaves behind a multicultural Curia, with cardinals from 70 countries, although European nations remain the majority (as has been the case for centuries), with 52 cardinals, 17 of them Italian. Asia follows with 23; North and Central America with 20; Africa with 17; Latin America with another 17; and finally, four cardinals from Oceania.
Most are between 71 and 79 years old; only 15 are under 60. The youngest is the Ukrainian Mykola Bychok, a 45-year-old bishop in the Australian city of Melbourne, and the oldest is the Spanish Carlos Osoro Sierra, 79, and the cardinal archbishop emeritus of Madrid. The congregations or meetings held in the days before the seclusion in the Sistine Chapel have served for minimal introductions and getting to know each other. For a white smoke to appear, a candidate will need two-thirds of the votes, in this case, 89.
The security surrounding the world's most secretive election faces the challenges of its time. Artificial intelligence, drones, and cyber-attacks are just some of the risks in this increasingly digital era. To prevent not only leaks to the outside but also any information reaching the inside that could influence the cardinals' decision, all digital devices are prohibited, and frequency inhibitors are in place around the perimeter to prevent communications. The Sistine Chapel windows also have anti-drone and anti-laser opaque systems.
The cardinals are not completely isolated as they are accompanied by a group of staff during the days of seclusion. Doctors, nurses, cleaning staff, cooks... all swore to keep "absolute secrecy" on Monday in the Pauline Chapel, officiated by the Camerlengo, Kevin Joseph Farrell.
WHO ARE THE FAVORITES FOR POPE?
Will we have a black or Asian Pope? These are names being considered, taking into account that Asia and Africa are continents where the Church is growing, compared to the decline of followers in Europe. That's why names like Robert Sarah or the charismatic Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle are being mentioned.
However, the most talked-about names are closer to home. Italians Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Matteo Zuppi, and Pietro Parolin are on everyone's lips. The latter is the top favorite. The 70-year-old Secretary of State of the Holy See is the natural successor to Francis; he even stood in for him at several events. With a diplomatic profile, he is a great mediator of conflicts and is well known by all the cardinals. But if the saying holds true: "Who enters as Pope, leaves as a cardinal."
The conclave ritual has its own language full of symbolism that we will hear over the next few days. In fact, the conclave itself means 'cum clavis' in Latin, under lock and key. The powerful expression "Extra Omnes," also in Latin, means "Everyone out!" and is pronounced by the Master of Pontifical Liturgical Celebrations for all outsiders to leave the Sistine Chapel.
But undoubtedly, the Latin expression awaited these days is the one that puts the finishing touch to the whole process: "Habemus Papam." No explanation is needed. The one responsible for pronouncing the iconic phrase will be Dominique Francois Joseph Mamberti, the cardinal deacon with the most seniority within the cardinal deacon order.
The small chimney atop the Sistine Chapel becomes the protagonist. It is connected to two stoves where the cardinals will burn their ballots at the end of the morning or afternoon votes. Depending on the result, different chemicals are used to achieve the desired color: white if there is a majority around a candidate; black if the necessary 89 votes are not reached.
To break deadlocks in the voting, the cardinals have moments of interaction outside the Sistine Chapel. These are crucial talks and meetings to gather votes around one or more candidates based on the different ideological currents within the Curia.
WHEN IS THE 'WHITE SMOKE' EXPECTED?
If we look at the last two conclaves, it is not expected to take too long. In fact, Cardinal Ratzinger arrived at the conclave with such strength that he was elected in the fourth ballot, the fastest election since Pius XII in 1939.
In 2025, however, there are several strong 'papabili' being mentioned, so it is expected that the cardinals will take a little longer to gather their votes.
If we look even further back, to 1268, history still remembers the surrealism of the election of Pope Gregory X that lasted until 1271. To avoid another eternal 'sede vacante,' the Pontiff promulgated the Ubi Periculum, the Constitution that first introduced the term conclave. On the other end, the shortest in history, only 10 hours to elect Pope Julius II in 1503.
THE NEW POPE'S NAME
When a candidate reaches the necessary 89 votes, the cardinals will start applauding according to tradition. At that moment, the elected one will be asked if he accepts the Pontificate and under what name. Of the 10 most chosen names throughout history, the most common is John, with 21 Popes, and the least Urban, with eight Popes.
Francis said that his name comes from Francis of Assisi, the saint of poverty, because after being elected, Cardinal Cláudio Hummes - who sat next to him - hugged him and said, "Don't forget the poor."
After dressing in the papal robes in a small antechamber of the Sistine Chapel, known as the Room of Tears, the new Pontiff will present himself for the first time to the faithful to give the 'Urbi et Orbi' blessing (to the city of Rome, and to the world).