Miles Pattenden (Cambridge, 1982) is one of the leading experts on the Catholic Church in the United Kingdom. Historian associated with the University of Oxford, director of programs at The Europaeum, he is the author of books such as Electing the Pope in Early Modern Italy and a regular commentator in British media due to his in-depth knowledge of conclaves. This week he has arrived in Rome to contribute his expertise to the election of the new Pope.
Why has this conclave raised so many expectations?
All conclaves are in some way a referendum on the past pontificate. And in this case, it will also be a referendum on the future of the Church. Cardinals usually look for what they believe was lacking in the predecessor, focusing more on the deficiencies than the virtues of the old Pope to choose his successor. When voting, they will do so on the direction the Church should take and the speed of changes. Progressives celebrate many aspects of Pope Francis' papacy, such as his pastoral dimension and approach to the poor, but they are impatient because doctrinal changes have not been as many. Conservatives are anxious and nervous precisely for the opposite, they want to control the process and slow it down, or even return to traditional doctrines: more orthodoxy and less compassionAre we then facing the eternal rivalry between the two blocks: modernists and traditionalists?
That is just one of the axes that divide the cardinals. But the situation is more complicated: for example, we have African cardinals, who are progressives because of the importance they give to the fight against poverty, but who defend extremely conservative moral positions compared to European cardinals. Francis' genius was in building coalitions, but he is no longer here, and now the cardinals have to deal with each other.
To what extent did Francis' illness serve to open the debate about his succession? Do you think the cardinals already have two or three candidates in mind?
The cardinals are constantly talking about this, thinking about what will happen next. It was obvious in the last six months that, with Francis' illness, his papacy was coming to an end. The cardinals have been talking about all this informally for months, and maybe they don't come with a candidate in mind, but with political lines they want to defend.
To what extent can a Pope control the election of his successor? 80% of the conclave cardinals were appointed by Francis...
It is true, but the Pope did not necessarily appoint "ideological brothers". Many of the appointments were made adapted to the circumstances, as in the case of cardinals in Mongolia, Iran, Algeria, and other peripheral places. It is also true that the conclave is so diverse thanks to Francis, who was faithful to his condition as the Pope of the global south. But it must also be taken into account that many cardinals go, so to speak, with "the Pope of the day," and when the Pope dies, they change their minds.
Francis was bid farewell in the streets of Rome as "the Pope of the people," and there is consensus that the people have voted for continuity...
The displays of popular devotion at his funeral speak for themselves. Francis was also the first Pope to recognize himself as human and therefore admit his mistakes. His compassion towards the poor touched many hearts. He was a charismatic Pope, and that benefited the entire Church. But the cardinals will take into account other factors, such as the need for an administrator and governor Pope. I don't believe there is a candidate who combines both elements in the same profile...
Who enters the conclave as Pope comes out as a cardinal. Is the saying still valid?
There is another saying that after a fat Pope, a thin Pope comes... This can be interpreted in several ways. Does it mean that after a progressive Pope like Francis, a conservative Pope comes next? I don't think so much. But it may be that after a charismatic Pope, a bureaucratic Pope comes next. Francis was very temperamental and unpredictable, very inclined to get involved in political issues, and perhaps the cardinals will lean towards someone more predictable and who acts with more caution. Although the outcome is very open.
Parolin enters as a favorite...
It is the most obvious choice. He has been close to Francis and has been omnipresent in the Vatican, in charge of dealing with and receiving cardinals from other countries, he is the one who knows them best. But Parolin has been personally very involved in the agreement with China on the appointment of bishops. Many cardinals have criticized him, and that could cost him support.
The people's favorite is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the Asian Francis...
Tagle is perhaps the most charismatic: a candidate who does not hide his emotions. But he has a bad reputation on the administrative side, and that will also weigh on the cardinals. That and the famous karaoke, singing Imagine with those lyrics that also do not go unnoticed ("imagine there's no heaven").
Do you see the possibility of an Italian Pope after more than 50 years?
I believe that the election of an African or Asian Pope, for example, would help the image of the Church, but there are other factors to consider, such as the possibility of reconciling positions between Europeans and other parts of the world. In that sense, an Italian Pope, although European, could make that compromise more feasible. Pierbattista Pizzaballa is a figure who can obtain support and respect from all sides, a candidate acceptable to all groups.There is also the fear of an anti-Francis or a MAGA Pope, in the current context of populism... I would be surprised if an anti-Francis is elected. No Pope likes to criticize his predecessor. On the other hand, I do not see an American MAGA candidate, although the Hungarian cardinal Péter Erdö has qualities that can make him attractive beyond the conservative bloc: he is a man of rules and processes, predictable in his positions. However, the support of Viktor Orban will not help him among Europeans.Will the conclave be short or long? I would be surprised if it lasted more than five days, it would be going back to 1831. The average of the last conclaves is three days. The cardinals know that all eyes of the world are on them. And the longer the conclave lasts, the more it would project the image of a divided and crisis-ridden Church.