It is the sovereign state with the smallest size and army in the world and has only 900 inhabitants. But its influence transcends the borders of its 0.44 square kilometers and reaches every corner of the planet. Its highest authority is at once head of state and spiritual leader of 1.4 billion people. The Holy See has been for centuries the main power in Europe and the Pope remains a moral reference in an increasingly fragmented world.
On Thursday, on the second day of the conclave, the 133 cardinals elected the successor to Francis in the fourth round of voting. The American and Peruvian Robert Francis Prevost, 69, presented himself to the faithful as Leo XIV. If to outline the profile of a ruler one observes their first 100 days in office, a Pope only needs a few seconds, the time it takes to pronounce his first words in public. And Prevost uttered the word peace nearly a dozen times in front of the tens of thousands of faithful gathered in St. Peter's Square and before the world.
"Dear sisters and brothers. This is the first greeting of the resurrected Christ, the good shepherd who gave his life for God's flock. I also wish that this greeting of peace enters your hearts and reaches your families, all people everywhere, all peoples, all the earth. Peace be with you," he said.
In an increasingly polarized, tense, and unpredictable world, the words of Leo XIV are a statement of intentions: to continue the progressive path of Francis, who did not hesitate to use the global platform of the Vatican to take a stand on political issues.
However, the choice of his name has not gone unnoticed by international analysts, who already see certain differences with his predecessor. "He is not called Francis II, but Leo XIV", highlights Jacobo Ramos Folch, Director of Public Affairs at Newsline and visiting professor at the University of Navarra. The Argentine Pontiff focused his years at the helm of the Vatican on the most disadvantaged, he was the Pope of the poor, but Prevost leans more towards defending workers and social justice, he will be the Pope of peace.
"That social focus of Leo XIII [from whom Prevost takes his name] in his encyclical Rerum novarum is very interesting, especially in a context where the gap between North and South is increasing more and more, also the differences between urban and rural areas and the digital divide, which is another of the inequalities of the 21st century between those who have access to the skills to manage artificial intelligence and those who will be severely disadvantaged, which are millions of people," highlights Ramos Folch.
It is still too early to speculate on what profile Prevost will adopt when dealing with international leaders. We are discovering the personality of the new Pope, although there is already talk of a shy man, who was very emotional when appointed and who, unlike Francis, returned to the traditional attire for the presentation of popes, with the mozzetta and stole, and the golden pectoral cross.
"I don't think he will have a confrontational profile, he will be a decentralized Pope. He is the Pope of unity, of consensus. With his election, neither the progressives nor the conservatives have won, but that center. He is neither the global North nor the South, but both. However, he will exercise his influence as a voice of moral conscience, whether in the form of statements, encyclicals, or gestures with international leaders," says the analyst.
In his introduction to the faithful (a speech he had written instead of improvising, like previous pontiffs), León XIV spoke of "building bridges through dialogue, through encounter, leading us all to be one people always in peace". These are trademark words of Francis, who always spoke of "building bridges and not walls"; an exhortation that was recalled by the dean of the College of Cardinals, Giovanni Battista Re, in the homily delivered at his funeral on April 26, in front of the top leaders, including the president of the new Pontiff's native country, Donald Trump.
Here arises the big question: What relationship will Prevost have with the unpredictable Republican? Trump (who recently posted an image of himself dressed as the Pope generated with artificial intelligence) hastened to congratulate the first American Pope in History on social media and considered it "a great honor." He also said he was "looking forward to meeting Leo XIV."
Tensions between the Republican and Francis over their migration policies were constant. And we already know some of the opinions of the new Pope thanks to scrutiny of his X account, where the then cardinal shared critical articles about Vance and the attitude towards migrants and refugees of the US Government.
Is the new Pope anti-Trump? Certainly, he is not the Archbishop of New York, Cardinal Michael Dolan - Trump's favorite candidate - with a clear conservative profile who also led the prayer at the inauguration ceremony of the current US president. It has also not gone unnoticed that in his introductory speech, Leo XIV spoke in Italian and Spanish, but not in the language of the country where he was born.
"Just as it was electorally profitable for Trump to confront Francis, I do not foresee that he will seek direct confrontation with the new Pope," anticipates Ramos Folch, who is familiar with US politics, having worked for Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2026. "When analyzing political profiles in Washington, not only the leader is looked at, but those around him. And in that sense, the fact that Trump is surrounded by practicing Catholics can act as a counterweight."
Indeed, Trump's inner circle is among the millions of Catholics now led by Prevost: his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio; J. D. Vance himself since 2019; and the First Lady, Melania Trump. If Francis had global power and was admired even by non-believers, his successor has -a priori- the favor of Trump's circle. Cheers could be heard at the White House when the identity of the new Pope was revealed.
So, can Leo XIV appease the disruptive impulses of the president? "The Pope can present himself as the voice of the American conscience and contribute to Trump reducing tension and adopting a more dialoguing tone. But let's not deceive ourselves. Trump is Trump, and he wins with his ways. It's not that the new Pope can stop Trump, but he can influence his advisors to stop Trump. A political leader is stopped by his advisors, especially a person who lives off political and media showmanship," says Ramos Folch.
The president cannot miss the opportunity to capitalize on American global influence with the first American Pope in History when it seemed that the US was no longer a superpower. But Prevost's appointment has left many of his MAGA movement followers (Make America Great Again) bewildered, unsure whether to appeal to national pride because the Pope is American or to view him with suspicion due to his criticisms of Republican policies. "The choice of Prevost is a masterstroke. It seems that the USA is increasingly disconnecting from the global economy and looking inward, and suddenly a Pope appears who symbolizes that global spirit of the Church," the analyst emphasizes.
Inherited and Future Challenges
Pope Leo XIV faces a succession in which Francis initiated a process of openness that was far from being completed. We will see new international tensions and global crises in which climate change will worsen. These points that are always present are inherited in a more pronounced, more critical way by the successor of Peter. It is worth remembering that when Francis was chosen, Russia had not invaded Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East had not erupted, Trump was not in the White House, tensions with China were not the same, and the challenge of artificial intelligence was not being raised.
It is said that the Church lacks ideology and does not participate in politics. The Vatican may not have a voice in some countries, but it does have eyes and ears. And the missionary profile of the new Pope is a key issue in this regard. "When we talk about missionaries, we are talking about people who go to very remote areas, in very complicated environments, and in the case of the Augustinian order, founded in 1256, it has a clear experience in adverse environments. From a geopolitical perspective, one should not overlook the access that the Church has to on-the-ground information, probably the same or more than the major intelligence agencies," Ramos Folch points out.
The Holy See has one of the widest diplomatic networks in the world, with relations with 180 countries, thanks to which it often exercises silent diplomacy in international conflicts. It holds permanent observer status at the UN. There is no organization that has such deep roots in all social strata worldwide, the analyst warns. "Having agents on the ground is very expensive and risky, the Church has them and for free. I think of realities in complicated geopolitical environments like Cuba, Venezuela, China... The Church is on the ground and has that 360 perspective. Not only can it speak with high spheres to understand the political reality, but also the social reality."