When next Tuesday Donald Trump shakes hands with the Crown Prince and strongman of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, in Riyadh, he can savor the memory of the visit paid to him in July 2022 by the then President of the United States, Joe Biden. The Democrat greeted his host with a fist bump that made headlines worldwide. It was not an effusive or cordial contact, but a cold and inevitable encounter.
Biden's discomfort was evident as he publicly pardoned the heir to the Desert Kingdom, a figure too important in world geopolitics for the suspicions pointing to him as the mastermind behind the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi to sideline him on the international stage. Biden swallowed his pride, turned necessity into virtue, and, with the pragmatism and cynicism demanded by realpolitik, rehabilitated Bin Salman, albeit with some symbolic distance. With Trump, things will be quite different. The dismemberment of Khashoggi's body at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 is naturally a forgotten issue, not one that troubles the current White House occupant. On the contrary, a more than cordial handshake is expected with the future king of Saudi Arabia, one of the most important allies globally for the current American administration.
Donald Trump chose Riyadh in 2017, just a few months after starting his first presidential term, as his first international destination. His total harmony with Mohammed bin Salman was evident, not only due to the economic agreements they reached -including those benefiting the Republican's family circle- but also because of a personal feeling, of styles of understanding power and governance. If the death of Pope Francis had not forced Trump to fly on a lightning trip to Rome to attend the funeral at the Vatican, his upcoming tour of the Gulf Petro-monarchies next week would have also been his first foreign trip in this second term as president.
It is no mere coincidence, chance does not fill the agenda in Washington. For a Trump who has the slogan America First written boldly on his forehead and whose guidelines in international politics are still as confusing as they are bewildering, strengthening the alliance with Riyadh and with the rest of the wealthy Arab Monarchies is a crucial and well-defined matter. However, unlike the approach of US diplomacy since at least the 1970s towards these actors, which aimed to make them key players in the long-term stability of the entire region and in a multilateral puzzle, experts now agree that Trump will arrive in the Gulf with short-sightedness, with a very prioritized financial interest, and primarily concerned with signing lucrative commercial agreements and investments that will allow him to return to the US with a full wallet.
The authoritarian Petro-monarchies are willing to shell out a lot of money, but they do not want to miss the opportunity to strengthen the Gulf not only as the energy hub of the world, but also as a consolidated main player in geodiplomacy, an emerging technological power, and a well-protected island from all the winds that batter the region, especially due to the upheaval caused by the Israeli military offensive in neighboring countries since the terrible attacks of October 7th.
With his usual grandiloquence, Trump promised days ago that next week he will make a "major announcement" about the Middle East, of "the greatest possible magnitude, one of the most important in many years." But for now, in another of his great moves, and to charm Riyadh, he seems determined to embark on a new cartographic crusade, changing the name of the Persian Gulf to Arabian Gulf or Gulf of Arabia, as reported by two federal officials to The Associated Press.
For years, the Arab countries bordering the stretch of sea between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula rejected the name by which it is recognized worldwide. However, in the 1990s, the UN settled the debate after a vote in which many other Arab nations accepted it. The Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, Stephanie Tremblay, when asked about the issue at her daily press briefing, stated on Wednesday: "We will continue to refer to this area as we normally do."
Trump, however, has shown more than enough evidence that with him, anything is possible. Let's remember the ongoing controversy over the White House occupant's order to rename the Gulf of America to the Gulf of Mexico.
Even before flying to the Middle East, Trump has managed to bring together two irreconcilable enemies, the ayatollah regime and the opposition in the diaspora led by Prince Reza Pahlavi. Tehran has already labeled the possible name change of the Gulf as "hostile," while the son of the last Shah, from Washington -where he resides-, wrote on his social media: "All Iranians, regardless of our political orientation, beliefs, or perspective, must unite once and for all to raise the flag over the Persian Gulf." The prince feels disappointed by the recent movements of the Trump Administration regarding Iran.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, said this week that he hopes this issue is nothing but misinformation. He emphasized that the name Persian Gulf "does not imply ownership by any particular nation but reflects a shared respect for the collective heritage of humanity." "Iran has never opposed the use of names such as the Sea of Oman, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, or Red Sea. On the contrary, attempts for political reasons to alter the historically established name of the Persian Gulf are indicative of hostile intentions towards Iran and its people and are strongly condemned," he warned.
A megalomaniacal leader
Returning to Mohammed bin Salman, to whom Trump's idea surely brought a smile, it is not that he has long since lost the fear of Western powers daring to treat him as a pariah, but the ruthless Crown Prince who is transforming Saudi Arabia with a megalomaniac vision -his Vision 2030 represents a revolution for the Kingdom, although doubts about its economic viability have not yet been dispelled- touched by Trump's grace, he emerges as a figure whose influence knows no bounds.
He was the first leader with whom the Republican conversed after his inauguration on January 20th; they had already shared confidences and made plans at Mar-a-Lago (California), and Trump threw himself into his arms to try to resolve what represents as big a headache for him as the war in Ukraine.Saudi Arabia has once again become the stage where high-level meetings have taken place between delegations from Washington, Moscow, and Kiev. Riyadh, like the rest of the Gulf Petro-monarchies, can currently boast of having equally privileged dialogue with the West as with Russia, giving them unparalleled mediation capabilities. This, combined with their hydrocarbon reserves, makes the US and the EU indifferent to their human rights policies. The Gulf has also been courted by China for years. Trump's upcoming trip aims to limit Beijing's seductive deployment in an area historically under US patronage.
Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. It is noteworthy that he will step foot in the three nations that have already committed multimillion-dollar investments awaiting his signature. Countries like Oman, which have not yet yielded to filling the White House's coffers, are excluded from the tour. Despite Oman's growing mediation role and direct ties with Washington, Trump will meet with leaders from the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, all sharing a common stance fostered by Bin Salman.
For now, Saudi Arabia seems willing to increase oil production to please its American visitor, impacting a price war favorable to US interests and negotiations with Putin. While the Petro-monarchies may reject Trump's plan to turn Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East, Israeli actions in the Strip will not sour discussions with Gulf countries. Trump may sweeten the deal with a presumed agreement to provide humanitarian aid to devastated Gaza, imposed on Netanyahu.
Bin Salman seeks Trump's approval to advance Saudi Arabia's dormant civil nuclear program. Although Israel's conflict with Hamas will not overshadow Trump's visit to the Gulf, it hampers progress on the Abraham Accords, normalization of relations between Arab countries and Israel. Washington no longer considers this a prerequisite for Saudi Arabia to pursue its coveted civil nuclear plan to counter Iran. Despite recent Saudi-Iranian détente, their conflicting interests are clear, with current winds favoring Bin Salman.