Spain is in full economic slowdown. This is confirmed by the European Union, which on Monday published its spring forecasts, noting that in 2025 and 2026, the moderation in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be noticeable. After the 3.2% increase in 2024, the economy will grow by 2.6% this year and 2% next year.
These figures represent, on the one hand, an improvement of three tenths for this year and a 0.1% decrease for the next. Additionally, the country will be the eurozone powerhouse with figures much higher than those of Germany, France, or Italy. Particularly striking is the 0% growth forecast for the German economy, which also adds to the -0.2% from last year.
However, the lesser Spanish strength is evident, a situation that fits with the moderation that both the Eurozone and the EU will experience in a particularly complex geopolitical context. In the former case, Brussels estimates that the upturn will be 0.9% compared to the previous 1.3%, while the entire Union will grow by 1.5% compared to the 1.1% projected in the fall. "In today's forecasts, growth prospects are significantly revised downwards. This is mainly due to the weakening of global trade prospects and increased trade policy uncertainty," the Commission states.
In both cases, however, there will be an acceleration next year to around 1.5%, which is the opposite of what will happen in Spain. Considering the 2% growth forecast for the country in that year, the differences in growth rates will be significantly reduced. The Commission's data also show that Ireland, Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, or Lithuania will grow more than Spain this year, and next year Greece, Slovenia, or Portugal will also do so. Poland, not part of the Eurozone but increasingly influential in the EU, will increase by 3.3% this year and 3% next year.
"Downside risks to economic prospects are mainly related to a greater-than-expected slowdown in economic activity in the euro area and Spain's major trading partners, especially those with relatively high exposure to U.S. markets," the Commission adds, without providing a specific figure for the potential impact of Donald Trump's trade policies.
The Ministry of Economy, on the other hand, has emphasized that "the European Commission has revised upwards by three tenths the growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2025 to 2.6%, in line with the Government's estimates," and indeed "Spain will continue to lead growth among the main European economies." No sign of the slowdown.
In addition to the noted slowdown, Brussels also keeps Spain as the EU unemployment champion: by the end of this year, it will be the only nation above 10% unemployment, and in 2026, the forecasted rate will barely drop below this level to 9.9%. Similar to the growth situation but in the opposite direction, the data contrasts with those of the major European economies.
For example, France remains below 8% throughout the analyzed period, Italy does not exceed 6%, and Germany stays at 3.4%. Greece, usually the country with which Spain competes for the highest unemployment rate in Europe, will reduce its rate to 9.2% next year.
"The unemployment rate is projected to steadily decrease to slightly below 10% in 2026, from 11.4% in 2024, supported by additional job creation and a moderation in total labor force growth compared to recent years," the Commission notes. And again, the Government emphasizes that "by the end of next year, unemployment will be below 10% for the first time since 2007." The fact that it is the country with the highest unemployment is not mentioned in the Ministry of Economy's communication.