There will be no ceasefire. Ukraine is willing, but Russia is not. Donald Trump's requests are futile, and Vladimir Putin's refusals have no consequences. Since returning to power, Ukraine has been insulted, offended, and publicly humiliated by Trump, and Washington even cut off military and intelligence aid. Kiev has accepted a 30-day ceasefire, signed an agreement to give the United States access to its minerals, and agreed to negotiate directly with Russia, and even Zelenski gave the green light to meet with Putin. Meanwhile, Russia has not accepted anything, not even a 30-day ceasefire. It has ignored requests and demands, disregarded all messages, not budged an inch, and the most it has offered is to start talking, without bringing the top leaders to the table. And yet, Trump presented this Monday as a great success of American diplomacy
Today, the leaders of the two major nuclear powers have spoken on the phone, and once again the Russian has outmaneuvered his counterpart, apparently without the latter being aware. "I just finished a two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. I think it went very well. Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin negotiations for a ceasefire and, more importantly, the end of the war. The conditions for this will be negotiated between both parties, as it should be, because they know the details of a negotiation that no one else would know. The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn't, I would say it now, rather than later," Trump celebrated, but without being able to offer anything concrete to support the optimism.
The reason is that what Russia proposes is not a ceasefire to achieve an agreement that definitively ends the war, but rather that before stopping shooting, an agreement is reached to start thinking about a ceasefire. To work slowly on an abstract "memorandum" with many clauses, one of which could temporarily end the fighting.
"Russia is willing to work on a memorandum with Ukraine, including a ceasefire," Putin said at the end of the meeting. His position, as in recent months, is much vaguer, without any commitments, full of ambiguous or empty phrases. And above all, it is based on the same idea that justified the invasion. "The main thing is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis," Putin said. Which means "denazifying" Ukraine, demilitarizing the border, ceding territories, and installing a puppet government in Kiev.
In his interpretation of the call, the Russian leader said that "a ceasefire with Ukraine is possible if the relevant agreements are reached" and that "Russia is in favor of ceasing hostilities, but it is necessary to develop the most effective ways for peace," or that "Russia and Ukraine must find compromises that suit both parties." Gaining time to continue occupying and killing. What seems like good news to the White House, which threatens to withdraw completely from this issue, appears to be.
"Russia wants to trade on a large scale with the United States when this catastrophic massacre ends, and I agree. Russia has a huge opportunity to create huge amounts of employment and wealth. Its potential is unlimited. Likewise, Ukraine can greatly benefit from trade in the process of rebuilding its country. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will start immediately. I have informed President Zelenski of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb of Finland, during a call I had immediately after the call with President Putin. The Vatican, represented by the Pope, has declared its great interest in hosting the negotiations. Let the process begin!" Trump added in his statement.
As confirmed by The Wall Street Journal, Trump briefly spoke with Zelenski before the call to Putin and asked him what should be discussed. According to his sources, the Ukrainian leader suggested a 30-day ceasefire, a future meeting between Putin and Zelenski (which Trump could attend), and unifying the line and tone between the United States and Ukraine. But in practice, nothing.
Minutes before the call, Vice President JD Vance, still traveling in Europe, elaborated a bit more on the philosophy that seems to guide this strange negotiation, in which all the pressure is on the invaded and the United States repeatedly resists pressing the invader. A tactic by which Trump seems to be telling Putin that if he continues to avoid committing, Washington will turn its back, abandoning its ally. Exactly what Moscow has wanted from day one.
Sources cited this morning by Bloomberg indicate that the Kremlin considers it within reach for its troops to gain definitive control of the four regions it already considers de facto its own by the end of the year, so they do not have many incentives to stop the war right now.
"There is a fundamental distrust between Russia and the West. Frankly, the president considers it absurd that we cannot overcome past mistakes. But it takes two for that. I know the president is willing to do it, but if Russia is not willing, in the end we will have to say, 'This is not our war. It is Joe Biden's war, it is Vladimir Putin's war. It is not our war. We will try to end it, but if we can, in the end we will say: You know what? It was worth trying, but we will not do it anymore,'" Vance said bluntly, a disheartening message for Ukrainians that has been echoed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio ("we have no more time to waste"), or the White House spokesperson, complaining about the president's "frustration" with "both sides of the conflict."
"We are more than willing to withdraw. The president is supposed to speak with Russian President Putin and also with President Zelenski. And I am sure that today we will speak with several world leaders, as he always does. But look, the president has been very clear: the United States will not waste its will here. We want to see results. And the first important result we wanted to see, and that we are glad about, is that the Russians and Ukrainians put a real peace proposal on the table," Vance told reporters from Air Force 2. "They should accept direct talks between them because they hadn't spoken in years. We thought that was a shame. That has already happened, but there is a small impasse here, and I think the president will tell President Putin: 'Look, are you serious? Really? What do you think about this?' Because the U.S. proposal has always been that there are many economic benefits to thawing relations between Russia and the rest of the world, but they will not be obtained if so many innocent people continue to be killed. So, if you are willing to stop the killing, the United States is willing to be a partner for peace," the vice president insisted, explaining that he had just spoken on the phone with Trump. "I know he is looking forward to it and I wish him all the best. I think he is the right person to negotiate," he concluded about the imminent call.
The Administration continues to think, with enormous generosity towards its historical rivals and enemies, that "Putin has made some concessions" and that "he has taken significant steps" in these talks, although most have been for show in the one-on-one meetings with the White House special envoy. "But we feel we are at a standstill, and that is why the president will speak with him. I sincerely believe that President Putin does not really know how to end the war. If he thinks about it, he has a million armed men. He has redesigned his entire economy: what used to be factories that produced products for civilian life. Now they manufacture tank shells, artillery shells, and drones. So this is a bit speculative, but I think the president would agree that part of this is that I am not sure that Vladimir Putin has a strategy to dismantle the war effort," Vance pointed out.