On the night of November 5, when the count made it clear that Donald Trump had defeated Kamala Harris and would return to the White House, one of the happiest people on the planet was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Suffocated by disputes, corruption allegations, assaults on the rule of law, with a weak coalition and a clear inability to bring back the hostages from October 7, the veteran politician saw a unique opportunity to turn his situation around.
The joy was palpable among the entire Israeli right and far-right. The hosts of the most conservative media outlets toasted live to celebrate. Yinon Magal, the ultranationalist face of the main interview program, started singing with the audience. "Congratulations on the greatest comeback in History! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning and a powerful renewal of the commitment to the great alliance between Israel and the United States. This is a great victory!" wrote the Prime Minister euphorically on his social media that night.
He and his allies seemed convinced that a new dawn was coming, and they had good reasons, as in his first term Trump, who defines himself as the most pro-Israeli president in history and has been described by Netanyahu as "the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House," took historic and decisive actions, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem or recognizing sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Not to mention the Abraham Accords, to normalize relations with Gulf countries, or distancing from the nuclear agreement with Iran. The appointments of unconditional supporters of the Hebrew state for this second term, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, or the new ambassador, the evangelical Christian and Zionist Mike Huckabee, who believes that Palestine does not exist, further raised expectations.
Six months later, the balance seems to prove them right, but with a more than important caveat. Trump almost unconditionally supports his main ally in the region, excuses his excesses, and has a close relationship with its leaders. But the priority is America First and if Israel gets in the way, he evades it, ignores it, or overrides it in a way that none of his predecessors have done in decades.
Netanyahu has returned to Washington, to Congress, and to the White House in a big way. He has a direct line, access, and the respect of Trump, the vast majority of Republicans, and the establishment. He has seen how they gave him the green light for almost all his policies in Gaza, despite the destruction and tens of thousands of deaths. And a free hand in the West Bank, after the new Administration lifted sanctions on violent settlers who harass and torment Palestinians. Not a public reprimand, no nuance, no scolding.
Additionally, it was announced with great fanfare, in the Oval Office and flanked by Netanyahu, that the US would take charge of Gaza and that millions of Palestinians will be expelled to neighboring countries, such as Jordan or Egypt, but also to other places as outlandish as Libya. The Likud's golden dream, which has swept the territory and can rid itself forever of its inhabitants.
The same goes for actions in Lebanon or Syria, where Israel has deployed, occupied territories, and launched airstrikes after the fall of the Assad regime. Furthermore, the Government immediately lifted the (minimal) restrictions on the shipment of weapons that Joe Biden had imposed, considering the response against Hamas excessive. With Trump and his team, the (mild) mentions of civilians and innocent victims in the Gaza War disappeared from Government communications.
The US Administration has exacerbated its anti-Palestinian stance, targeting protesters who have demonstrated in the US, revoking visas, detaining activists without evidence, and attacking major universities for not doing enough against anti-Semitism. In late April, the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank linked to Project 2025, the roadmap designed years ago for when the Republicans and specifically Trump returned to power, sent a team to Israel to meet with high-ranking officials, including the country's Foreign and Defense Ministers and Ambassador Huckabee. The purpose of the trip was to delve into another controversial political document known as the Esther Project, the foundation's proposal to "dismantle the pro-Palestinian movement in the United States, along with its support in schools and universities, progressive organizations, and Congress."
As reported by The New York Times, "drafted in the wake of Hamas' attack on Israel in 2023 and the growing protests against the war in Gaza, the Esther Project outlines an ambitious plan to combat anti-Semitism by labeling a wide range of critics of Israel as 'effectively a terrorist support network,' so they can be deported, defunded, sued, fired, expelled, ostracized, and excluded from what they consider an 'open society'."
So Netanyahu had many reasons to be euphoric in November and even more now. But at the same time, Trump has given very clear signals that his agenda comes first, and that is not necessarily aligned with Tel Aviv's priorities. This has caused nervousness and cold sweats. The US seems to be taking the first steps towards a drastic change in its policy in the region and in the role its great ally plays in its design. For example, the Administration has started direct negotiations with Hamas, through its special envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, bypassing Israeli mediation and coordination, the first time Washington has been involved in this way, as they thought their partners were not doing enough, or the necessary, to release Americans.
Additionally, they are negotiating an end to hostilities, on their own, with Yemen, after the failed plan to bomb the Houthis, not only due to the Signalgate fiasco, when former National Security Advisor Waltz created a group on that messaging app, mistakenly included a journalist, and secret information was shared there. But also because the military objectives were not being met, Yemeni air defenses shot down several drones, and the Pentagon began to fear casualties. Trump announced the decision just two days after Yemeni missiles attacked Tel Aviv airport, a message that they are alone on that front.
Not to mention the direct negotiations with Iran to try to revive a nuclear agreement, probably on terms not very different from the one signed with Obama and that Trump sabotaged in his first term. Netanyahu learned of this decision while in Washington, and his expression while Trump communicated it to the media was telling. And his possible plans to attack unilaterally have irritated US officials.
The same goes for the decision, implemented last Friday, to lift economic sanctions on Syria, extending an olive branch to its leader, a man whom the US had until recently put a bounty on his head. "I don't think there is any administration, Democrat or Republican, that has even come close to undertaking the kind of independent outreach that the Trump administration has devised over the past three months," said Aaron David Miller, a veteran Middle East peace negotiator who served in several US administrations, in an interview with Vox. "He has little interest in containing or pressuring Israel in its war in Gaza, but perhaps even less interest in supporting Israel in broader regional issues or aligning the stance of both countries towards the region," said a specialist recently.
Trump lashes out at Israel's critics, from the International Criminal Court to the President of South Africa, but in practice, his foreign policy takes much less account of Tel Aviv than that of his predecessors. "Trump's only consistent message is: 'I have plans for the region. You are welcome if you want to be my partner, but if you prefer to be ignored, go ahead,'" said Nimrod Novik, former foreign policy advisor to Simon Peres.