Spain is the only major country in NATO that completely rejects the 3.5%+1.5% formula designed by the Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Mark Rutte, for all allies to reach 5% Defense investment by 2032. The Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, announced this last May before the latest EU Defense Ministers meeting, and this is the same position with which Spain will arrive in the European capital to participate in the last NATO meeting before the crucial summit at the end of the month in The Hague.
The Pedro Sánchez government maintains that it is not the time to discuss new military spending goals beyond the 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) already committed for this year, even though this is currently the central debate. No other country has expressed itself so categorically. Belgium at some point showed some reluctance to Rutte's model, and at some point Slovenia may have done the same. However, in neither of these cases is the rejection as frontal, categorical, and, above all, lacking the relevance and weight of Spain.
Italy, for example, faces significant debt problems, and its military spending is also at the lower end of the Alliance. But it has shown a commitment to that 5%. The same goes for Germany, even though reaching that figure will require a significant outlay given its GDP exceeds 4 trillion euros. A similar situation occurs with France, a country with significant budget imbalances but willing to increase spending, whose President, Emmanuel Macron, will also meet with Rutte tomorrow. And the United Kingdom announced its largest rearmament since 1980 earlier this week.
Subsequently, it will be seen how all these spending increases are implemented, what steps are taken, and what is negotiated between this week's Defense Ministers meeting and the end-of-month presidents' summit. But all these nations have avoided being labeled as a country unwilling to increase military spending, while Spain is currently under intense scrutiny.
The government refers to economic growth as a guarantee of commitment to NATO. A higher GDP means more investment in the 2% that they ensure will be reached this year and which, they argue in Moncloa, will be sufficient to achieve the agreed-upon capabilities. Furthermore, going beyond that would be very challenging given the tensions that the military issue generates within the government. So much so that some of its members believe Spain should leave the Alliance.
The government's situation is, therefore, very delicate, and it will be difficult to maintain its stance. Rutte will press with his 3.5%+1.5% formula: the first part corresponds to what could be defined as pure military spending, and the second part to investments related to hybrid threats and cybersecurity. His insistence stems from the belief that Russia is moving towards an economy of war and that it is necessary to have the tools to confront Vladimir Putin. Also, because he argues that the development of these agreed-upon capabilities requires a 5% investment. And, of course, it is a way to appease the United States and Donald Trump.
For the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, it is essential to maintain Atlanticism and for the US to remain committed to defending Europe. It is highly unlikely that it will do so at the same level as before, and that the approximately 80,000 soldiers the country has in European territory will be reduced to some extent. They may be partly deployed to the Pacific theater, which concerns Trump more. But what the NATO Secretary-General wants to avoid at all costs is further disconnection. This seems very challenging, yes, but with the current US President, one never knows.
In addition to these pressures, there are those from countries closer to Russia. Just yesterday, Poland and Lithuania announced that at The Hague summit, they will jointly advocate for all Alliance countries to move towards the 5%. It is true that both countries already have significant Defense investments, their economies are smaller than those of Spain, Italy, or Germany, and they are not major countries, but it is a significant stance.
Similarly, the position of the Nordic countries is significant, with Sweden announcing just a few days ago that the same 5% military spending is a medium-term goal. "We have a trajectory that rises to 3.5% for pure military expenses and then to 1.5% for defense-related army expenses. So, in total, 5%. We are willing to take responsibility," said the Defense Minister of that country, Pal Jonson, last Saturday. "I have never seen the sense of urgency in Europe that I see now," added the Swedish official in statements reported by Bloomberg.
In his opinion, once a possible peace agreement is reached, Russia will target the Baltic and Nordic countries. "Once there is a peace agreement, they will move their assets and capabilities closer to our area," he specifically stated. And if events unfold this way, Putin would be directly threatening NATO and the EU, which is what Brussels fears could happen in 2030.