The phrase "with current technology, it is easier to defend than to attack" had become a 'mantra' in all analyses of the war in Ukraine. It was a way of proclaiming that the 'meat grinder' of the trenches and bombings would continue until the conflict ended.
It was not entirely correct. On two occasions - in October and December 2022 - it was the Russian threat to use nuclear weapons that forced Ukraine, in the first of those cases, to halt its offensive in the northeast of the country and, in the second, to let thousands of trapped Russian soldiers escape in Kherson, on the right bank of the Dnipro River. But even with those exceptions, it seemed evident that, in an increasingly technified conflict, offensive operations were destined to fail.
Until Sunday, June 1. On that day, 117 Ukrainian drones attacked at least six Russian air bases. And they achieved it through what Florian Sebel, co-founder of the German drone company Quantum Systems, which provides these systems to Ukraine, calls the "gamification" of war, an expression impossible to translate but which could be equivalent to "turning the technology of armed conflicts into a game." Most of the systems used by Kyiv are very cheap or even free and can be obtained at any specialized store or online.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, it used to be said that chemical weapons were "the poor man's atomic bomb." Now, one may wonder if Ukraine has given drones that role. With just 117 of these devices, Kyiv has eliminated or put out of action between 30% and 50% of Russia's nuclear bomber force, according to Justin Bronk from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and two anonymous officials from the US Department of Defense, cited by the Reuters news agency.
The bold Ukrainian operation has made it clear that no critical military or civilian infrastructure is safe from becoming a target of unmanned aerial vehicles or a swarm of them. A terrorist group or a commando of soldiers dressed in civilian clothes can enter a country, buy drones and goggles, and launch a devastating attack against a military base, a power substation, or an office building. The consequences can be brutal - like the bombing of the Russian bases - but even if the attacks fail, they have the potential to cause a wave of panic, a crisis in financial markets, or the collapse of a country for hours or days. The British think tank specializing in international relations, Chatham House, issued a report this week warning that NATO countries are particularly vulnerable because "they have often left critical infrastructures in open and highly concentrated areas, making them vulnerable to long-distance drone attacks."
From what has been revealed about the bombing of the Russian bases, it was of a simplicity that is unsettling in case someone decides to replicate it in the West. According to the Bloomberg news agency, the Ukrainian drones were modified versions of devices sold online for between 350 and 430 euros. These are devices with First Person View (FPV), meaning they transmit through a video camera what they are doing to their operator, who sees these images with goggles similar in appearance to augmented and virtual reality goggles, costing between 70 and 700 euros, depending on the model. It is a technology that is almost 40 years old.
Chatham House believes they were operated with ArduPilot, a free software available online for 16 years that is downloaded directly onto a flight control device that anyone who enjoys flying drones can have - for example, the political scientist Francis Fukuyama - and costs between 20 and 100 euros. ArduPilot allows drones to follow a pre-programmed route in case the operator loses communication with the aircraft.
Although there are conflicting versions, it is possible that the drones were directed using Russia's own mobile phone and internet antennas. In fact, the Putin government has ordered these antennas to be turned off during drone attacks. The problem is that it is not easy to detect machines that, including their four propellers, measure about 75 centimeters long and weigh around two kilos, plus between 500 grams and 1.5 kilos of explosives.
Not everything was so pedestrian. It is very likely that the drones were equipped with Artificial Intelligence (AI) to distinguish between real aircraft and decoys placed by Russia on the runways, and also to avoid the tires that cover the aircraft to prevent direct impacts from the devices. Finally, the drones knew where they should crash: into the fuel tanks and the gondolas holding the missiles. That's why they were so devastating.
The world's major armies were already engaged in a race to develop drones and, at the same time, to design defense systems against these weapons. A RUSI report in January determined that, despite between 60% and 80% of Ukrainian drones being shot down (often by intercepting their electronic devices), these weapons were responsible for at least 70% of Russia's material losses.
Thus, after spending three years debating whether or not to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets or Abrams or Leopard tanks, it turns out that Ukraine's most destructive weapon is drones, many of which are manufactured in the country. At the beginning of the year, Ukraine was producing 20,000 unmanned aerial vehicles per month. Now, they claim the number is 200,000. By December, they expect to produce 400,000. As European countries adopt the model initiated by Denmark, providing funding and technical support to Ukrainians to manufacture their own weapons, the destructive capacity of these weapons is likely to skyrocket.
In fact, the development of drones has become a major political and strategic asset for Ukraine. Kyiv is now the most technologically advanced and experienced country in Europe in these weapon systems. Their knowledge is on par with that of the United States, which has been the pioneer and historical leader in drone development, China, the global leader in low-cost drone manufacturing, producing three million each year, and Russia, which has also quickly learned to manufacture and use these weapons. If in 2022 that country produced 140,000 drones, this year it expects to produce ten times that number.
Just as Ukraine has benefited from the support of the United States and Europe, Russia has had the support of China and another very advanced country in unmanned aerial vehicles: the Islamic Republic of Iran. In December, a drone launched by Houthi militias from Yemen came so close to its target, a US destroyer, that it had to be shot down with machine gun fire, because it was at too close a range to use anti-aircraft missiles.
So military forces around the world are very aware of the danger posed by these new weapons. Two weeks ago, Israel acknowledged deploying laser weapons within its US-funded missile defense shield Iron Dome to counter drone attacks. Last Monday, a day after the Ukrainian bombing, the United Kingdom published its 'Strategic Defense Review,' a document prepared by independent experts that theoretically will guide the security policy of that nuclear power. In the 112 pages of the Review, the word "aircraft carrier" appears twice; "tank," three times; "drone," 27 times. Only surpassed, with 33 mentions, is "submarine," the only weapon that is invulnerable to drones.
Of course, even submarines do not have their future entirely guaranteed. Thanks to a combination of aerial and naval drones, Ukraine has managed to eliminate the operational capability of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Five weeks ago, two naval drones - literally, two unmanned boats - shot down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets, another jewel of Vladimir Putin's armed forces.