"Tension is a good thing." This was Donald Trump's response when asked about how he would prepare for the 2026 World Cup, shared with Mexico and Canada, with whom he had triggered a trade war, after meeting Gianni Infantino in the Oval Office in March. The FIFA president, a diplomatic professional, maintained his smile, but the tension was palpable. Trump will have under his feet the two main stages of the sports circus, the World Cup next year, and the Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028, both powerful tools of geopolitics that Trump shakes up. The first dice, however, may roll starting this weekend with the Club World Cup, a test event for the World Cup, amid protests over immigrant raids.
The competition currently does not have the visibility or risks of the two major events that Trump will host during his term. It takes place entirely in the United States, so tensions with Mexico and Canada are set aside, but border control issues related to fan travel remain, especially in Los Angeles, a future Olympic city currently in turmoil due to immigrant detentions and deportations ordered by the president. Los Angeles is a strategic enclave for all competitions, with most venues located on the east and west coasts, areas that concentrate opposition to Trump.
Riot police disperse protesters in Los Angeles.RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP
The international sports world, very protective of its independence, is on alert not only for the tempting instrumentalization that Trump may make of the events but also for the fear of old boycotts, with China as a major commercial adversary in a current stand-by war, and decisions that compromise its competitive and political balance, such as legislation on transgender issues in sports, refusal to fund anti-doping efforts internationally, or the ambiguous relationship between Trump and Vladimir Putin, currently outside the Olympic space but eager to return.
Infantino did not visit the White House to discuss the 2026 World Cup or relations with Canada and Mexico but to present the Club World Cup to Trump. The FIFA president sold the product in a way that delighted Trump: "It will be like three Super Bowls in one day." Clearly, Trump enjoys the spectacle.
Next year's event will be much grander but also more complex. Sharing a competition like the World Cup with other countries involves coordination among their authorities and ease of movement for fans, especially to venues in neighboring locations like Vancouver, Seattle, Toronto, Monterrey, or even Los Angeles.
One of Trump's pretexts for imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, initially at 25% but now softened, was related to the demand for stricter border controls to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking, especially the devastating fentanyl.
Trump's decisions sparked a wave of rejection and boycotts of American products in Canada, with a tough stance from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. His successor, Mark Carney, visited the White House last month with a more conciliatory tone but the same warning: "Canada is not for sale."
Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, during an event.José Méndez/EFE
Steps back in tariff matters, whether with neighbors, the European Union, or China, have eased commercial relations and calmed markets, but deportations and expulsions of immigrants have sparked a more violent confrontation with Mexico, voiced by President Claudia Sheinbaum, with immigration being a global issue.
FIFA does not want conflicts beyond the purely football-related ones, so a year before the World Cup, Infantino hopes to shield the tournament from tensions between the organizing countries. With the Club World Cup approaching, he will have opportunities to interact with Trump, who has expressed his intention to attend several matches, although the tournament's opening in Miami coincides with his birthday celebrations in Washington.
Infantino inherited the World Cups in Russia and Qatar, tainted in their awarding by corruption, but next year's event is already a product of his administration. FIFA has at least one advantage: the management model has changed. Since 2022, the organization has taken on the functions of past organizing committees. The World Cup Bureau is designed and contracted from Zurich.
The Olympic Movement as a whole has a longer timeline until 2028 but observes with concern Trump's maneuvers, as he will receive the Games towards the end of his term. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) demands from host countries, through a clause in the contract, that laws conflicting with the Olympic Charter, technical rules of international federations, or the World Anti-Doping Code be suspended for the Olympic Family during the event. This happened with Italy's Anti-Doping Law during the 2006 Winter Games in Turin, restrictions on freedom of expression in Beijing 2008, or French regulations banning veils in public venues in Paris 2024.
Conflict with Transgender Athletes
The first conflict may arise regarding the admission of transgender athletes. The Olympic Movement leaves it to international federations, which do not have a unified position. The new IOC president, Kristy Coventry, advocates for a common criterion but requires a sports, medical, and ethical agreement. Time is needed, unlike Trump. In February, the president signed an executive order, surrounded by children, titled "Keeping Girls in Sports." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that schools or associations allowing transgender individuals to compete in female categories will face sanctions.
The IOC is currently one of those associations. In Tokyo, New Zealand's Laurel Hubbard competed; in Paris, an American athlete, Nikki Hiltz. We will see if an agreement is reached before Los Angeles.
Trump Jr.'s Doping Games
Even more necessary is the issue of doping, with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) and the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency at odds, with the latter withholding $3.6 million in January as part of its funding. The conflict dates back to Joe Biden's time in the White House when WADA allowed 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive for trimetazidine to compete in the 2021 Tokyo Games. However, the decision to halt payments occurred upon Trump's return, who in his first term in the White House pushed the so-called "Rodchenkov Act," allowing criminal charges against any athlete who tests positive in competitions against Americans.
Donald Trump Jr. at a forum in Doha.KARIM JAAFAR/AFP
WADA expressed its disapproval, but nothing compared to its anger over the "Enhanced Games," where doping will be allowed, scheduled for 2026 in Las Vegas. WADA President Witold Banka yesterday called for its prohibition by U.S. authorities. This would be like banning his son from playing, as Donald Trump Jr. is among the promoters.
The word "boycott" has been whispered in conversations among top sports leaders, observing the complex geopolitical landscape and its main actor, the president of the world's most powerful country, unleashed. The decisions made by Donald Trump could have consequences on sports events organized in the United States, especially the Olympics, which is not a remote possibility when reviewing history.
There are no precedents for boycotts due to a trade war. It is not a real war as it does not involve invading a territory or threatening a country's sovereignty, but it can impact wealth and generate confrontations beyond purely economic realms.
The United States decided not to attend Moscow 1980 due to the invasion of Afghanistan a year earlier, and Soviet authorities retaliated four years later under the pretext of security. President Jimmy Carter made the decision six months before the Moscow Games' opening, stating that attending would be endorsing the USSR's foreign policy and threatening, "Either withdraw troops or I withdraw athletes." Some world leaders might say, "Either lift tariffs or I withdraw my athletes," if Trump resumes an irrational escalation after this uncertain truce.
Immigration Apartheid
Prior to Moscow 1980, there was a bloc boycott, led by Tanzania, of Montreal 1976 due to racial issues. This was prompted by New Zealand's All Blacks touring South Africa, which was under apartheid sanctions. New Zealand's presence at the Games led to most sub-Saharan countries not participating. Racial struggles persist, as seen in the Black Lives Matter movement, also visible in stadiums worldwide, but today one of the major global causes is immigration, against which Trump acts with standards intolerable to much of the world. According to U.S. media, deportations may increase to include more nationalities, with a detention center in Guantanamo. It is his particular form of apartheid.
Trump's stance on the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza is also a risk factor. He has flirted with Vladimir Putin in search of a solution, despite the intensity of the Russian offensive. One of the bargaining chips would most likely be Russia's return to the sports arena, in which Putin invested a lot of money, whether in the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi or the 2018 World Cup. The Israeli offensive in Gaza, with the support of the Trump administration in the face of almost unanimous global condemnation, could provoke reactions not only in the Arab world.
Los Angeles, which will host the Games for the third time in its history, already suffered a boycott by the communist bloc in 1984 in response to the Moscow '80 Olympics. China, on the other hand, did not support the USSR and attended the Games for the first time in its history. Today, it holds the position of a major sports powerhouse opposing the United States, a role once held by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In 1984, China chose not to align with the rest of the communist world to showcase its strength in sports, whereas today its main strength lies in the economic realm.