"The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees can no longer be achieved," is the conclusion of French climatologist Valérie Masson-Delmotte, one of the 61 scientists from 17 countries integrated into the IPCC, who have just released their latest report in the journal Earth System Science Data.
The study warns that, at the current rate of emissions increase, the planet could deplete its estimated "carbon budget" in three years to keep temperatures below the limit set a decade ago by the Paris Agreement. The "carbon budget" calculates the total amount of CO2 that can be emitted into the atmosphere to avoid exceeding a certain global temperature increase limit.
In 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could emit a maximum of 500 billion tons of CO2 to not exceed the 1.5-degree threshold. Five years later, with more precise calculations, the "carbon budget" has shrunk to 130 billion tons. At the current rate of around 40 billion tons of CO2 per year, the budget will likely be depleted in three years, unless emissions drop by 80% by 2025, an unrealistic scenario.
"In reality, it's less than three years, as methane continues to increase," warns Sophie Szopa, research director at the Climate and Environment Sciences Laboratory (CEA). "The carbon budget will be rapidly and inevitably depleted. It's not a physical issue but a social inertia: we know that we will not achieve carbon neutrality in the coming years, not even in this decade."
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded since 1850, with a global temperature increase exceeding 1.5 degrees for the first time compared to pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature was 15.10 degrees last year (with the absolute daily record set on July 22 at 17.16 °C).
Despite being the first "natural" year to exceed the 1.5-degree limit, scientists warn that the temperature increases referred to in the Paris Agreement should be considered beyond annual fluctuations and in the context of a decade, emphasizing the importance of preventing that figure from becoming the "new normal."
The agreement signed by nearly 200 countries actually set the goal of "keeping the increase in the global average temperature well below 2 ºC compared to pre-industrial levels and continuing efforts to limit that increase to 1.5 ºC." Since then, there has been increasing scientific consensus on the need not to exceed 1.5 ºC to avoid catastrophic effects.
However, with the current emission levels, the "new normal" could become a reality before the end of this decade. The IPCC report warns that at the current rate, temperatures are projected to rise by 2.7 degrees in the second half of the century, although it emphasizes that the 1.7-degree target is still achievable in a scenario of drastic climate action.
"The remaining carbon budgets will experience a rapid decline if the world fails to reduce emissions," warns Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London. "Every fraction of temperature increase we can avoid will be essential to mitigate the impact on the planet's life and the harm that populations may suffer."
"Things are moving in the wrong direction," concludes Professor Piers Forster of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. "We are witnessing unprecedented changes in temperature increases, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. What we have long predicted is finally happening and is attributable to the high level of emissions."