The ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced by Trump could be on shaky ground, just hours after the involved parties confirmed it. Iran launched two missiles against Israel this morning, Tel Aviv reacted by accusing Tehran of breaking the ceasefire and ordered "powerful attacks" on Tehran, reports Sal Emergui from Tel Aviv.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on Monday afternoon (already Tuesday in Spain) a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, an action that is strange in its forms, words, and rhythms. In a message on his social network, Trump congratulated "everyone" and surprisingly stated that both countries "have fully agreed that there will be a total CEASEFIRE in approximately 6 hours, once both countries have completed their final missions." This will be in the early hours in the region. It will be "for 12 hours, at which point the war will be considered OVER."
In fact, the sequence itself is even more convoluted and surprising because of the enthusiasm of the president, who ordered to bomb the Islamic country's nuclear facilities on Saturday and who responded yesterday with ballistic missiles against its military bases in the Persian Gulf. "Officially, Iran will initiate the STOP FIRE and, at 12 o'clock, Israel will initiate it and, at 24 o'clock, the world will officially announce the END OF THE 12-DAY WAR. During each ceasefire, the other side will remain peaceful and respectful. Assuming everything works out as it should, which it will, I congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, for their resilience, courage and intelligence in ending what should be called 'THE 12 DAY WAR,'" Trump explained in a lengthy message on social media.
The confirmation from the parties involved has been delayed, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed this morning the ceasefire agreement with Iran announced earlier by Trump, after several hours of silence and uncertainty in his country that woke up to several Iranian missile strikes that caused four deaths in the city of Beer Sheva, as reported by Sal Emergui from Tel Aviv. Following his words, Iran broke the ceasefire by launching two missiles against Israel, which has stated that it will respond.
After stating that Israel achieved "historic accomplishments" in the military offensive in Iran that began 12 days ago and pointing out the elimination of "a dual immediate existential threat, both in the nuclear field and in ballistic missiles," Netanyahu added: "In full coordination with President Trump, Israel has accepted the president's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire."
However, unofficially the process had already started in the early hours of the morning. These twisted paths are inevitable, as summarized by analyst Ali Vaez, an expert in the Crisis Group area, the move implies that Iran starts a ceasefire with a country it does not recognize and with which it does not speak directly, mediated by Qatar, the country it bombed earlier today, and all proposed by the U.S., the country that in turn brutally attacked them 48 hours before.
However, shortly after 4:00 a.m. local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Aragchi announced, in his own way, that they would start fulfilling their part of the deal. "As Iran has made clear on several occasions: Israel started the war, not the other way around. So far, there is no 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, as long as the Israeli regime ceases its illegal aggression against the Iranian people by 4:00 a.m., Tehran time, we do not intend to continue our response thereafter. The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later."
Minutes later, in an additional message, the minister confirmed that the shootings had ceased. "The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the last minute, at four in the morning. Along with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our beloved country to the last drop of blood."
Early in the morning, Trump posted a message on the Social Truth network saying that the ceasefire is in effect and asking for it to be respected: "Please, do not violate it."
The tension is high in any case. Tehran fears it may be a trap, especially after Trump used all kinds of lies and distractions, such as saying he was in favor of diplomacy and giving himself two weeks to make a decision last Friday, while his bombers had already received orders to take off towards the Middle East with bunker-busting bombs. Or after seeing how Israel continued to attack Gaza after the ceasefire with Hamas.
The international community is cautious about the process, as Trump also claimed a few weeks ago the end of hostilities between India and Pakistan, for example. And because he was particularly eager to announce the end of attacks in the region to move on after the bombings of nuclear facilities, something that has caused a deep divide in the core of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement he leads. "This is a war that could have lasted for years and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it did not, and it never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and God bless the world!" he added in his message.
U.S. media reported White House pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to effectively end his attacks. According to these reports, Trump told him it was essential to stop, ignoring Tel Aviv's requests to continue a little longer and take advantage of the moment to cripple Iran's defenses and air capabilities for the coming years. Throughout Sunday and today, Israel's attacks have continued. And journalists on the ground in Iran were reporting that while Trump was congratulating the ceasefire, explosions were heard in many neighborhoods of the Persian capital.
He took the initiative and called Netanyahu. His vice president, the Qatari authorities to mediate with Iran. And after obtaining the very conditional - and delicate - approval of both parties, he quickly launched the announcement to the world, trying to prevent them from turning back.
The U.S. president had been sending messages all day difficult to associate with something as serious as acts of war and bombings. In one of them, he mocked Iran, saying that their response today with a mild attack on U.S. bases in Iraq or Qatar had been "predictable" and "weak." Then, in the same statement and probably in something unprecedented in international diplomacy, he thanked "Iran for warning of their missile attack, which has prevented casualties." After that, he congratulated "everyone for peace" and distributed blessings.