The White House announced on Tuesday night, through indirect channels, that President Donald Trump had decided to suspend, at least temporarily, the shipment of essential military material to Ukraine for its defense. The pause, the second since Trump took office in January, came without prior notice, without an apparent solid reason, and just a few days after the NATO summit in The Hague, where the Ukrainian issue was very much sidelined by U.S. orders, but where the U.S. president indicated his willingness to continue sending anti-aircraft batteries until Vladimir Putin accepted a ceasefire.
The decision means that Washington will stop providing air defense interceptors, bombs, and guided missiles to Ukraine, claiming that the Pentagon is concerned about the low levels of its stocks. These weapons are crucial in Ukraine's efforts to contain the increasingly intense attacks from Russia. The timing could not be more delicate, as Ukraine is struggling significantly in recent weeks to halt Russian attacks. Moscow is using ballistic missiles capable of evading radars and Patriots. Additionally, they have increased the use of drones, much cheaper, to bomb several times a week. Over the weekend, one of these brutal waves involved 477 drones, 46 cruise missiles, and 11 ballistic missiles in western Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, only one ballistic missile was successfully shot down.
The shock is enormous in Kiev. When in March, following an ambush in the Oval Office, Trump abruptly froze military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine to force Volodymyr Zelensky to accept a ceasefire and very tough peace negotiations, experts estimated that Ukraine would have up to six months of reserves to continue defending itself, assuming Europe doubled its efforts. Currently, there are no solid estimates, and it is not clear whether everything is part of a diplomatic or political maneuver yet to be revealed or a final decision implying that Washington has formally decided to distance itself from Kiev, leaving it to its fate.
"This will have a serious impact on combat effectiveness", admitted Oleh Voroshylovskyi, the commander of a Ukrainian unit responsible for shooting down Russian drones, in an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday. "We are aware of reports of delays in the delivery of certain elements of defense assistance packages previously allocated by the United States and are investigating the actual circumstances. Ukraine has not received any official notification regarding the suspension or revision of the agreed-upon defense assistance delivery deadlines. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has requested a telephone conversation with U.S. colleagues to further clarify the details," reacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in a statement on its Telegram channel.
"Ukraine has never asked the United States to send the 82nd Airborne Division; it has asked for weapons to defend its homeland and its people from Russian attacks. Allowing Russia to win this war would be an absolute disaster for the American people and for our security worldwide," reacted Mike Pompeo, who was Secretary of State under Trump in his first term.
The lack of supplies, and stock, has been a problem for Ukraine's European allies since 2023. The 27 countries sent their reserves to Kiev, and EU funds were used to acquire new equipment at a good price. However, production, especially of 155mm projectiles, is slow, and manufacturers were unable to keep up, even in times of peace, to meet the needs.
Ukraine has invested heavily in domestic production, so it has a plan B for ammunition for certain systems. But not for heavier weaponry and more powerful missiles. Therefore, the Patriots are one of the most sought-after pieces by armies, as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have depleted all supplies. Lockheed Martin produces only about 550 interceptors per year, and besides the U.S., there are 18 other countries that use Patriot systems. Ukraine has six operational ones, mainly used for the defense of the capital.
The Pentagon has indicated that this pause does not necessarily compromise aid to Ukraine, and assures that they will present President Trump with other options to "continue supporting Ukraine, consistent with its goal of ending the war." However, their movements are difficult to explain, given the thorough planning required for a war and the support for an ally.
According to The Wall Street Journal, on the same Tuesday, U.S. shipments of material that were already in Poland were halted, "including more than two dozen PAC-3 Patriot missiles, more than two dozen Stinger air defense systems, Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, and more than 90 AIM air-to-air missiles," among other systems, according to officials from the administration and Congress. "This decision was made to prioritize U.S. interests following a review by the Department of Defense (DOD) of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries worldwide," stated Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, in a brief statement. "The strength of the U.S. military remains unquestionable; ask Iran."
The overall picture with the bombing in Iran
Precisely, what happened in Iran helps to better understand the overall picture. After the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran responded with missiles to U.S. bases in Qatar. Everything was under control, almost agreed upon by the minute, but to shoot down the launches, the largest deployment of Patriots in U.S. history was used, according to the Pentagon. In June alone, Russia sent over 5,000 self-detonating drones that crashed in Ukrainian cities, causing significant civilian casualties.
"As we understand it, this decision is due to the warehouses being empty: there are few weapon reserves in them," enthusiastically stated Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry S. Peskov. "But in any case, the less weaponry is sent to Ukraine, the sooner the special military operation will end," he added, using the official Russian term for the war.
Negotiations are at a standstill, and Trump, after several outbursts against Putin, seems to have thrown in the towel. There is a faction in his circle that wants to forget about Ukraine and believes that what happens there is not a national interest. Vice President JD Vance leads this faction. Others like General Kellogg, theoretically the special envoy for the war in Ukraine for the president, and until today the staunchest opponent of Moscow, are on the other side of the spectrum.
"Recent comments on the state of negotiations are Orwellian. Russian claims that it is the U.S. and Ukraine who are stalling peace talks are unfounded. President Trump has been consistent and unwavering in his commitment to move forward to end the war. We urge an immediate ceasefire and progress towards trilateral talks to end the war. Russia cannot continue to buy time while bombing civilian targets in Ukraine," lamented Kellogg in a post on his social media this Monday.