At the beginning of the year, following Donald Trump's abrupt return to the White House and his trade war against Europe, China, and practically the whole world, Beijing's charm offensive to win new friends in Brussels was quite noticeable. The leaders of the European Union also toned down their stance towards China, starting with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who openly expressed that the bloc should deepen its commercial and investment ties with the Asian giant, even reaching new agreements.
Amid the chaos caused by the U.S. President, Chinese diplomats strolled through Brussels selling their country as a reliable partner, claiming China's role as a staunch defender of the global order and the main source of stability for the world economy. Some key players in the European Union, especially the Spanish government, bought into the argument and tried to act as a bridge between East and West. Others, like the Germans or the French, continued to maintain a tougher public stance towards Xi Jinping's regime while also pushing for closer commercial ties.
But what seemed to be a new and happy restart between China and the EU has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks. There are many fronts that, as on previous occasions, have strained relations with less than two weeks left before Von der Leyen and the President of the European Council, António Costa, participate in a highly anticipated summit in Beijing that will be much tenser than expected a few months ago.
So far in July, the Czech Republic government has accused Beijing of organizing a cyberattack on its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Berlin has summoned the Chinese ambassador to Germany after the Chinese military used a laser against a German aircraft participating in a EU operation in the Red Sea. Brussels has opened a new investigation into TikTok's data transfer to China, and China has continued to tighten restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to Europe. Additionally, China's foreign minister acknowledged for the first time that his country could not accept Russia losing the war in Ukraine, as that would allow the United States to redirect its focus towards Asia; in other words, against Beijing.
EU office officials in the Chinese capital tell this newspaper that it now seems that the open scenario is dominated by a tug of war between Beijing and Brussels, with constant exchanges of commercial blows and a more aggressive narrative, especially from the European side, as demonstrated by Von der Leyen's harsh speech against China last Tuesday, mainly due to its support for Russia.
"The way China continues to interact with Putin's war will be a determining factor for future relations between the EU and China," stated the German, recalling reports -echoed from Washington- that Beijing is a "decisive facilitator" of the Russian invasion of Ukraine by selling Moscow dual-use technologies that Putin uses in the war.
"Von der Leyen is desperately looking for a scapegoat for the EU's failed policy in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. China will not allow Von der Leyen, or anyone else, to dictate its foreign policy," an editorial in the English version of the China Daily newspaper, controlled by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), pointed out. "It is paradoxical that Von der Leyen lectures China on respecting sovereignty, rules, and principles when she has been on the wrong side in the conflict between Israel and Palestine."
Earlier this month, to ease tensions before the summit on July 24 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Brussels, where he was received by EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, who is not particularly popular in Beijing. The Chinese Foreign Ministry reports that in recent months they have greatly missed the "moderation" of Kallas's predecessor, Josep Borrell, who was "less aggressive, more thoughtful, and had deeper knowledge of geopolitics" than the former Estonian Prime Minister.
From that meeting between Kallas and Wang, the news -and surprise- was the Chinese statement that their government did not want to see Russia lose the war. Additionally, as reported by several European media outlets, the meeting was very tense on various issues. "I regret to be pessimistic, but at the upcoming summit between the EU and China, wonderful principles will be declared, but I doubt we will achieve any gradual strategic progress," declared Italy's ambassador to China, Massimo Ambrosetti, at a forum in Beijing a few days ago.
Initially, the summit between the EU and China was supposed to take place in Brussels. However, plans changed with the Chinese President's refusal to travel to Europe. With Beijing winning the showdown and the meeting finally set in the capital of the Asian giant, it was supposed to be a two-day event because it included a meeting more focused on trade and technology in a city in eastern China called Hefei. However, according to Bloomberg, the Chinese side reportedly shortened the summit to a single day.
This decision came as a result of escalating tensions that began with Beijing's restrictions on exports of the much-needed rare earth minerals, essential for the technology industry and of which China has almost a monopoly in processing. Brussels responded by canceling a round of trade talks that were scheduled before the summit. This also angered the Chinese government, which decided to exclude European companies from significant medical device contracts.
The latest episode of confrontation occurred when the German Foreign Ministry reported that it had summoned the Chinese Ambassador to Germany, Deng Hongbo, following an incident in the Red Sea. "The Chinese military used a laser against a German aircraft in the EU operation #ASPIDES," read a post on X. Beijing later denied the accusations.
In the Operation Aspides, which aims to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea from Yemen's Houthis, up to 700 German soldiers are participating. From Berlin, they explained that the aircraft was attacked "without any reason or prior contact". The incident occurred earlier this month and involved a Chinese warship that had been sailing in that area of the Red Sea. "By using the laser, the warship accepted the risk of endangering people and materials," the Germans stated, although it is not clear whether the laser was a weapon or a guidance system like the ones the Chinese coast guard has used on more than one occasion against Filipino boats in the ongoing clashes they have had in the disputed South China Sea.
"The problem we have is that each EU country follows its own strategy based on the dependence they have on supplies coming from China. Some, like Germany, are clear that Beijing is an adversary that constantly manipulates its cards to try to win all the games it plays. Meanwhile, there are countries like Spain that, when it comes to everything related to China, seem closer to the BRICS group than to the EU powers," point out two European diplomatic sources with extensive experience in the Asian giant and who are puzzled by the Sánchez government's approach to Beijing.
Additionally, at the EU headquarters in the Chinese capital, some officials acknowledge that Brussels has become trapped in the geopolitical battle between the two great titans on the board: the United States and China. Now, the bloc's quest for that coveted strategic autonomy involves reaching a trade agreement with Trump before the tariffs imposed by the Republican are activated and devising a serious plan to reduce the heavy dependence on China.
This was discussed in the European Parliament last week after the Commission President promised to "accelerate risk reduction" after accusing China of using its control over supply chains as a commercial weapon. Von der Leyen has set the tone for the upcoming summit by putting all complaints on the table, from subsidized overproduction by Beijing in its main industries to export restrictions.