The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has promised this Monday "secondary tariffs" of up to 100% on Russia if an agreement is not reached with Ukraine in 50 days. To date, the trade tariffs that Trump has applied globally do not affect Moscow, given the minimal volume of trade due to the sanctions imposed by Joe Biden since the start of the 2022 invasion. "We are very dissatisfied and we will apply very severe tariffs if we do not reach an agreement in 50 days. Tariffs of approximately 100% that we would call secondary tariffs," Trump stated from the Oval Office in a joint appearance with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
In reality, the President made a mistake and meant "secondary sanctions", Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained later, but the logic is the same. It is what the U.S. has done with Venezuela, threatening to economically penalize those who buy their oil. Whether called tariffs or sanctions, it implies a surcharge or a fine.
The announcement is a disappointment for those expecting a drastic change, one that never comes. Trump once again gives Putin extra time. It is not "two weeks," the formula he uses over and over when he wants to postpone an issue, but 50 days. At this point, the Kremlin does not take any deadline seriously, having realized that there are never consequences for doing nothing and that it has room to try to achieve its military objectives in the East, as bluntly stated in the last phone call between the two leaders.
The commercial ties between the two economies are minimal. If there are secondary penalties, meaning affecting countries trading with Russia even in something vital like oil, it could have an effect because there are dozens of them (including China) that have so far ignored Western restrictions. But in Brussels, no one counts on it too much, seeing how the President is not consistent in this matter and changes his mind every few days. Especially after Congress had considered imposing that tariff, but up to 500%, something much more burdensome.
In recent days, the traditional Republican apparatus had suggested that today there would be a truly important announcement, but it has not happened, at least not in the speculated and dreamed dimensions in Kiev, which has been suffering a constant and destructive rain of airstrikes, ballistic missiles, and drones for two months. The best news for Ukraine, relatively speaking at least, is that the White House is committed to continuing to provide existential aid, even if without paying for it. And the best news for Europe is that for the first time, the Republican leader has said that "a strong Europe is good news" and praised "the strong spirit" of the countries in the Old Continent standing up to the Kremlin.
"As you know, we have spent approximately 350 billion dollars on this war with Russia and Ukraine, and we would like it to end. It was not my war, it is Biden's war, but I am trying to get us out of it and we want it to end. And I am disappointed with President Putin because I thought we would have reached an agreement two months ago, but it doesn't seem like we will. I will ask Mark to speak about it, but today we have reached an agreement: we will send them weapons and they will pay for them. Billions of dollars. We, Americans, will manufacture them and they will pay for them," explained the President, very pleased that others will finance the operation, after months of asserting that Europeans have not contributed to these efforts and that when they have, it has been through loans, not grants.
"This is big, it is really important," Rutte said. "The President called me on Thursday to inform me that he had made a decision: to provide what is necessary for Ukraine to defend itself from Russia, but he wants the Europeans to pay for it, which is totally logical," said the Secretary-General, once again buying into the President's narrative after having forced all allies to commit to increasing Defense spending by up to 5% in the next decade, a pact sealed a few weeks ago in The Hague.
"This is based on the tremendous success of the NATO Summit, the 5%," but also on the decision to keep Ukraine strong and to increase our Defense industrial production. Again, the Europeans are stepping up. I have been in contact with many countries and I can say that at this moment Germany is in, but also Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. We have the Netherlands and Canada. Everyone wants to participate. And this is just the first wave. There will be more. So what we will do is work with NATO systems to make sure we know what the Ukrainians need, to be able to prepare packages," Rutte added. "Ukraine will have access to massive amounts of military equipment, both for air defense and missiles, ammunition, etc. If I were Vladimir Putin today, I would talk about what he plans to do in 50 days. And with this announcement, I would reconsider whether I should take the negotiations on Ukraine more seriously than I am now. As for Ukraine, I think it is great news for them."
Last night, Trump confirmed that the long-awaited Patriot missiles would be sent, the most useful for shooting down the Russian missiles that kill Ukrainians every day, which are expensive, scarce, and valuable, but without specifying more. Today he gave some more details. "We will receive some very soon, in a matter of days. In fact, a couple of countries that already have Patriots will replace them with the ones they already have. Pete Hegseth will coordinate with NATO," he said about his Defense Secretary. "We have a country with 17 Patriots ready to be sent. They will not need them. So we will reach an agreement for the 17, or a large part of them, to be sent to the worst front," Trump said.
In recent weeks, several things have changed the tone in the White House and among its Congressional allies. The President, although he has not done anything different in practice to change the relationships, has repeatedly criticized Moscow, saying he was "surprised and disappointed," that "Putin has gone completely crazy," and that "he is killing a lot of people." And above all, the attitude towards Kiev has changed. There are no longer daily tweets against the country or Zelenski, reproaches, insults, accusations of warmongering, and undermining peace negotiations.
Today, in a surprising admission, Trump explained that he was a bit fed up with the teasing in the calls with Moscow. "I come home and tell the First Lady: 'Do you know I spoke with Putin today? We had a wonderful conversation.' And she replies to me: 'Really? Another city [Ukrainian] has just been attacked,'" he said in the appearance.
The ambush in the White House is ancient history, and the President even publicly distanced himself from the Pentagon's announcement this month that it would interrupt shipments of anti-aircraft batteries to Kiev due to stock issues. Trump not only ordered the resumption of deliveries of essential defense material but has gone so far as to say in the past week that it was his duty to provide assistance. "We have to do it, they have to keep defending themselves," he said in a joint appearance with Benjamin Netanyahu last Tuesday. "I have not agreed on the amount yet, but they will have some missiles because they need protection, but the European Union is funding it. We will not pay anything, but we will send them the Patriots they desperately need," he added this Sunday on the plane back to the White House.
There is also movement in Congress, whose two chambers have a Republican majority, and that is also news. Senator Lindsey Graham, a veteran of foreign policy and a Trump ally, promised a "turning point" in relations with Moscow this weekend. After traveling throughout Europe meeting with the most involved governments, Graham has pushed for legislation to impose more sanctions on Russia. And that is a turn. His team is preparing legislation with bipartisan support to economically punish the invader.
So far, Trump has refused, but after realizing that Putin is mocking him, that he will not be able to end the war immediately, something he had said countless times was "very easy" and would be "immediate," he is opening up. The White House hoped to turn Russia into a battering ram in its long-standing confrontation with China, reversing the roles sought by Nixon and Kissinger in the 1970s, but the operation is not succeeding. On the contrary, as shown by Russian Minister Lavrov's tours in Asia and the constant contacts between their governments.
Since President Trump took office in January, the United States has not only failed to impose new sanctions, but in some cases, has relaxed them. Without new sanctions, existing measures lose their effectiveness. This has allowed Kremlin-controlled shell companies to move millions to acquire critical components, including chips and military equipment. The West has been imposing sanctions for three years and expanding them to cover the gaps that are being created, as the Russians and their allies find ways to evade punitive measures. New ports, new holdings, new banks, and accounting engineering.