The agreement sealed this Sunday in Scotland will have a limited impact on the Spanish economy in the short term. According to government calculations, it was expected that tariffs of 10% would result in a hit of 0.10% of the Spanish GDP, so the 5-point increase would raise the impact to 0.15%, a total of about 2,400 million euros of direct impact in the short term.
Spain is one of the European economies with less exposure to the United States, as despite having a trade deficit, exports to the North American country account for only 5%, a situation that contrasts with Italy and Germany, which are much more exposed.
However, it is an 18 billion euro business that goes far beyond agri-food products. In an analysis from April, Funcas detailed that around twenty economic subsectors had more than 5% of their business abroad with the North American country. Among them are the automotive parts sector (hit by its own sectoral crisis), fuels, or household appliances and mechanical devices.
Among these, there are sectors that will even fare better than during Trump's first term, such as olive oil. Just a few weeks ago in an interview with this media, the new CEO of Deoleo, Cristobal Valdés, recalled that six years ago the sector faced a 25% tariff, so the new scenario is somewhat better than that. "In any case, we will continue to strengthen our presence in the US market," he pointed out back then.
Among the sectors that seem to breathe a sigh of relief for now are Spanish wine with 335 million euros in annual sales to the American country, which faced a specific tariff, and pharmaceuticals. One of Trump's obsessions is that these must be manufactured in the US, and the relocation of various pharmaceutical companies based in Ireland to the US. However, according to Von der Leyen, these products will be protected under the agreement, which is a relief for Spain, as the US is one of its main markets.
The weight of the tariffs is already being felt in the economy, and it is expected to continue increasing now that there is a clear starting point in terms of tariffs that allows for business movements in this regard.
In April, the first month with tariffs, trade between Spain and the United States dropped by 13.8%, according to data from the Ministry of Economy and Trade. This was driven by a double-digit decline in car and energy product sales, despite the increase in food product sales.