Nine large screens display overhead, clear, and stable images of a field. If this were not a war, one would say they are part of a wildlife documentary where we wait for a predator to attack its prey, but it is a battlefield. Projectile holes from artillery, burnt military vehicles, open assault food bags flying in the wind, and occasionally, a dead body lying alone or accompanied by others just as dead are visible. A commander dressed in black like the coffee he drinks, known as The Tartar, watches the monitors until he sees movement (six Russian soldiers almost crawling towards Ukrainian lines) and alerts the artillery through his walkie-talkie. "Plus plus," they reply. In other words, "affirmative." Seconds later, the sound of a nearby cannon echoes through the windows. Enemy "neutralized."
- Every time a soldier or group of soldiers moves, we see it here. It's better to send our drones than our people. We don't want any of ours to die.
- We also detect them, even better. These Mavic drones have night vision and detect heat.
This conversation with this reporter took place in a Ukrainian jata (country house) at an undefined point on the front a couple of months ago. Aerial hypervigilance ensured the stability of the lines and the detection of an enemy trying to advance every day. But the Russians seem to have learned the lesson.
Since August 7, Z troops began to infiltrate about 17 kilometers behind Ukrainian lines in the most conflictive and hottest zone, between the besieged city of Pokrovsk and the strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramakorsk, the true Achilles' heel of Ukraine in the Donetsk region that they still control. They advanced on foot in an area where Ukrainian drones no longer searched for them, following a path previously marked by their officers. Larger Russian drones (Molniya) supplied them with food and water along the way without attracting attention, occupied some basements, and fortified themselves awaiting reinforcements.
According to the Ukrainian publication Deepstate, which monitors the battlefield through videos and photos posted online, some elements were placed not only cutting through the large Ukrainian defenses built on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, which include three layers of trenches, dragon's teeth, and minefields, but on the 11th, according to the same publication, they reached at some point the road that connects the Kramatorsk area, the heart of Ukrainian Donbass, with the rest of the country. There is a race against time for Pokrovsk.
How could such a thing happen in such a hypervigilant battlefield? "They used thermal camouflage ponchos to erase their thermal footprint so that night drones couldn't detect them. They found a gap between two of our positions and penetrated through there. They went only with their weapons, no vehicles, on foot and in small groups," Mikita, a commander of one of the defending units on that line, tells this newspaper. "We already knew that there are fabrics that can help dissipate your body heat, for example, yoga mats. We don't sleep on them, but we cover ourselves with them so they don't see us. Those ponchos are based on that idea."
In recent days, Ukrainian brigades have detected a high level of radio activity in the Russian enemy. Orders are to try to advance as much as possible before the meeting this Friday in Alaska between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The Kremlin aims to take control of Pokrovsk and threaten, thanks to that infiltration strategy, all the logistical lines feeding Ukrainian Donbass, to send the message that Kiev will not be able to hold them for too long and that it is better to surrender them now as an exchange, as suggested by Trump.
Putin is going all out on the front and in the last few days, it has been noticeable, but in the rear, contrastingly, calm days are experienced: the Russians have stopped bombing Kiev ahead of the meeting, and many in the capital and other major Ukrainian cities speculate that it is a strategy by Putin not to pressure Donald Trump.
For some analysts, who acknowledge that the situation on the battlefield is "difficult," it is not so much about a Russian advance or a front break but an attempt at sabotage and infiltration to explore the cracks that Ukraine is leaving in its defense due to the lack of rotation in its most exhausted units on a front as long as this one (800 kilometers long).
New disruption strategy
The infiltration mission, carried out by units of Russian special forces and elements of the 132nd motorized rifle brigade, has managed to bring panic to the Ukrainian rear and show the enormous deficiencies of a defensive system that is no longer able to cover all the gaps due to lack of infantry and recruitment problems. The fate for those Russian soldiers who infiltrate is usually death or capture. This week, the number of Russian casualties, caused by Putin's haste, has surprised the Ukrainians themselves, already accustomed to horror. Yesterday, Zelensky stated that in 24 hours, his troops had caused 500 dead and the same number of wounded among the enemy.
This reporter has met Ukrainian soldiers who have remained in their positions without rotation for up to 140 days, and who were supplied by drones. When they were finally relieved, they returned to their unit bases like shipwrecks, with wild hair and beard, dirty, malnourished, and disoriented. The ratio in favor of Russian troops on this front is a superiority of four Russians for every Ukrainian.
What has Ukraine done to plug the gaps? They have had to withdraw two of their best units from other fronts: the 92nd assault brigade and the Azov first corps. So far, in the last few hours, reports from the front have been more optimistic than in recent days: by not giving the Russians time to consolidate their positions and not sending armored vehicles into the breach, Ukrainian soldiers, several hundred, are capturing prisoners among those sabotage groups and regaining control of the area. Ukraine has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all those civilians (very few and very elderly) who remain in the Dobropillia area. This city, which was bustling with activity two months ago, is now semi-dead after Russian bombings with guided bombs in recent weeks.
It is evident that the Russians have taken another turn in their advance strategy: from long armored columns in 2022, we have moved to high-speed assaults on motorcycles or golf carts to bypass swarms of drones. Now, they advance on foot, occupying positions one by one and opening up areas for reinforcements to arrive and consolidate gains. As long as Ukraine has to move its best units to plug gaps, options for penetration for Z troops will open up. Additionally, with the addition of an expert drone unit called Rubicon, the Kremlin has neutralized a certain advantage that Ukraine had in the use of these devices. Now, the best Ukrainian drone pilots from groups like Birds of Madyar or Peaky Blinders are trying to hunt down the Russian Rubicon and vice versa, in a confrontation reminiscent of the old snipers in World War II.
The Russian operation has sparked criticism of Olexander Syrskyi, the Ukrainian army's commander-in-chief, who is always compared (unfavorably) to his predecessor, the charismatic Valery Zalushny. Syrskyi is a military man from the old school, born and trained in Russia on Soviet doctrines similar to those used today by the Russian army and is not very popular among his men, unlike Zalushny, who always referred to him disdainfully as "that Russian general."
"The situation is still developing, and, hopefully, it will not lead to a major operational advance, but this is a symptom of the challenges and problems. Ukraine has maintained the front with a shortage of infantry and reserves, depending on drone units. This has bought time, but it is not enough to stabilize the front," says Michael Kofman, an analyst at the Carnegie think tank.
Radio macuto, which is military jargon for a rumor that often circulates among soldiers, says that the meeting between Putin and Trump also affects the planning of Ukrainian units. Some that were to be deployed have already been halted at their rotation locations, while others, which were to be withdrawn, will hold out for a few more days. For the hard-working infantryman, returning home today is closer than yesterday. Zelensky knows this and must navigate between two realities: the need to return to their lives after almost four years of savage war and not handing Putin a victory that the Russians have failed to achieve on the battlefield. If Volodymyr Zelensky rejects the peace offers coming from Alaska, however leonine they may be, he may encounter some opposition, but if he accepts what the Kremlin demands, the next Maidan revolution will be against him.