You are not doing something right if you push an ally into the arms of your main adversary. Surely, this was not the strategy that Donald Trump had planned. But that's what happens when you mistreat a theoretical friend commercially because they refuse to break their traditional non-aligned position and maintain their diplomatic juggling that has served them well.
The situation is as follows: United States declares a brutal tariff war on its ally India because the fourth world economy is buying a lot of oil from sanctioned Russia, which is also its traditional ally, and is not willing to give it up. So, after the unexpected blow from Washington, in New Delhi, where they usually weave a network of multiple contradictory partnerships, they decide that it is time to make peace with a regional enemy, China, which in turn has a great interest in India and Washington distancing themselves.
India redirecting its relations with China is something that previous U.S. administrations, including the first Trump administration, had tried to avoid, nurturing relations with India despite its alignment with Vladimir Putin's regime. Trump's move in this game has so far been a disaster. He used tariffs to distance India from Russia, and what he has caused is for India to approach China.
Shortly after Trump announced 50% tariffs on Indian products, the Prime Minister of the world's most populous country, Narendra Modi, announced that he would visit China for the first time in seven years to participate on August 31 in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, a regional group that also includes Putin's Russia. Another key move by Modi after Trump's levies was to send his top national security advisor, Ajit Doval, to Moscow, where he was received by President Putin.
A high-level diplomatic thaw
This week, as evidence of the thaw between the two Asian giants, China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, was in India, where he held a meeting on Monday with Indian Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar. "Both countries must establish a correct strategic understanding and consider each other as partners, not rivals," said Wang, who also traveled to Delhi to lay the groundwork for an expected bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the upcoming SCO summit between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The two leaders last met in October of last year during the annual BRICS group summit held in Kazan, Russia. It was their first face-to-face meeting since the dangerous clash between the Chinese and Indian armies in June 2020.
That was a battle with sticks and stones in the Himalayas, at 4,300 meters above sea level, which ended with twenty Indian soldiers dead and eight casualties on the Chinese side. It took place in the eastern Ladakh region and marked the first deadly clash between the neighbors in the last 45 years. Both countries share an undemarcated 3,488-kilometer border known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The fight did not result in more casualties because China and India have a treaty that prohibits their forces from using firearms in the disputed areas.
After that episode, tension persisted for a long time. China reinforced its troop presence on the border, while the Modi government initiated a technological war by banning the use of dozens of Chinese-based applications, including TikTok and more recently, DeepSeek.
"We need to advance the troop withdrawal process at the Line of Control," emphasized the Indian Foreign Minister this week. "As the two largest developing countries, with a combined population of over 2.8 billion people, China and India must adopt a global vision and demonstrate the responsibility of major countries. They are expected to set an example of solidarity and self-sufficiency for developing nations and contribute to the advancement of a multipolar world," Wang added.
On Tuesday, from Beijing, state media highlighted that it is time for both countries to resume cooperation and close the open fronts. In recent weeks, they have restored some broken communication channels and announced several measures such as the resumption of direct flights and cross-border trade in the Himalayas, as well as the issuance of tourist visas for Chinese citizens.