A new ray of hope shines on the battered and disillusioned Venezuela. This is how analysts and voices of the democratic opposition interpret it - those who, if it weren't for Maduro's desire to perpetuate himself in power, would already be leading the country. Many Venezuelans cling to the image of a besieged and nervous Chavismo facing pressure from the Donald Trump Administration. With the electoral path exhausted as a means to displace the "tyrant," new scenarios are emerging with Washington focused on the Caribbean country to safeguard regional security.
The United States has launched an operation to cut off drug trafficking routes destined for the hemispheric superpower. The most striking aspect of the new Trumpist move is the deployment of a military fleet in international waters very close to the Venezuelan territorial sea limit. Guided missile cruisers, nuclear submarines, three destroyers, spy planes, and 4,000 marines are monitoring the Caribbean coast.
The anti-narcotics strategy aims to combat the influence of "criminal" and "narcoterrorist" organizations, with Nicolás Maduro being pointed out as the supreme leader and main responsible party. "Maduro is not the president of Venezuela, he is the leader of the Cartel of the Suns, a narcoterrorist organization that has taken over a country," stated Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The de facto president and his allies are no longer considered politicians but rather dangerous criminals, guilty of flooding the hemisphere with cocaine and fentanyl. So much so that the reward for handing over Maduro increased to $50 million this month.
Hugo Achá, a Bolivian analyst with extensive experience in transnational organized crime, points out that Trump's decision to establish drug trafficking-related criminal organizations as globally-reaching terrorist organizations "radically changed one of the strategic pillars of the U.S., just as it did after the September 11 attacks... From this, the executive order contemplates that the U.S. president can use all, this is the key word, all means at his disposal to neutralize, contain, or eliminate that threat."
Only forceful policies can defeat a criminal regime.
The Trump administration's decision has been applauded by the opposition. "It is an accusation that we have been making for many years. We also expressed that the problem was not only Venezuela's but also the hemisphere's. Drug trafficking has claimed the lives of young people, destroyed families, destabilized governments, our Colombian and Mexican brothers. Our region in general is plagued by drug trafficking," laments José Antonio Vega, coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Spain.
Therefore, Vega emphasizes that "it is important to attack the pillars that sustain the regime, weaken the pillars of financing, all their criminal activities that allow them to finance repression... There is no greater interest for the United States than a free Venezuela." Besides reinforcing U.S. security, opposition leaders see these actions as a way to pressure the de facto government and pave the way for freedom.
"Only forceful policies can defeat a criminal regime," emphasizes Pedro Urruchurtu, international coordinator of Vente Venezuela, the party led by María Corina Machado. He explains that democracy can be achieved when conventional methods, such as elections, converge with unconventional methods, such as safeguarding the records that proved their victory.
There is no greater interest for the United States than a free Venezuela.
From the opposition's perspective, they do not want to rush to create expectations that may not be fulfilled later. They are cautious when considering future scenarios. "We have learned that this is not exclusively about dates on the calendar, but about milestones and significant progress, and the role of leadership is precisely to accelerate those times," asserts Urruchurtu, also a political scientist. "We do not know exactly how far the Trump administration is willing to go, but what is clear is that there is a decision to move forward and that an opportunity for a transition in Venezuela is opening up."
Venezuelan political scientist Nazly Escalona points out that "not even people in Washington are sure about what is happening." In fact, she recalls that "the Trump administration has made ambiguous decisions regarding Venezuela", such as revoking and then reinstating Chevron's authorization to operate in the U.S. However, Escalona interprets the deployment as "an act of political pressure on Nicolás Maduro and those around him" influenced by the opposition. Edmundo González and especially María Corina Machado have maintained constant communication with the Trump administration, especially with Marco Rubio.
The military deployment is an act of political pressure on Nicolás Maduro and those around him.
Antonio Ledezma, former mayor of Caracas and opposition leader in exile, indicates that the purpose of the U.S. action is "to force this regime to surrender, to give way to the honor of the popular mandate expressed on June 28." He also states firmly that "this is not the diplomatic phase, nor the phase of exhausted dialogues that left frustrations, deceptions, and scams to Venezuelans and the international community."
Political scientist Miguel Ángel Martínez Meucci indicates that "it is impossible to predict what will happen," but he observes a "general trend towards the weakening of the Maduro regime." "Many things can happen, but the common denominator of all these scenarios is that internal and external pressure may converge for a change," he affirms. Taking this into account, some possible scenarios can be outlined.
Analyst Achá explains that "from a strictly capacity perspective, what is called power projection, the U.S. deployment is one of the largest seen in the region in recent history." Therefore, if they argue that Maduro and some of his allies are terrorists beyond criminals, they could escalate the conflict to a higher level, as they have the means to do so.
Achá even anticipates that Trump could argue that he is not starting a war but responding to a kind of cold war "that was already declared against the U.S. in his hands, and since this conflict threatens the country's strategic security and the lives of its citizens, then he has all means at his disposal to neutralize the threat."
2. TECHNICAL OPERATION, NOT INVASION
Escalona rules out the possibility of an invasion of the oil-rich country. "One of the pillars of the MAGA movement has been isolationism and Trump's campaign promise of no more wars... What interests him is to show his fight against drug trafficking, but taken to other dimensions: when someone introduces drugs into the U.S., they become a terrorist because they threaten national security and directly affect the American population... That is the logic behind his actions, it is not 'let's go remove Maduro from there'."
"I do not rule out that there may be some kind of technical operation, extraction, or capture of someone identified by the Americans as a drug trafficker," adds political scientist Martínez. "But what I do not see is an invasion in the sense of occupying territory. And those measures would not be directed against the Venezuelan population but against criminals," clarifies the political scientist.
It is perhaps the most far-fetched option. It was fueled by Maduro himself when citing a speech given by Cipriano Castro, former Venezuelan president and dictator from 1899 to 1908. In that proclamation, Castro offered to step down amid a naval blockade in 1902 led by Germany and Great Britain. Maduro, who tends to distort his country's history, used the exact words of his ancestor to draw a historical parallel and present himself as a leader besieged by external forces.
From Maduro's recitation of that proclamation, the interpretation was made that he might be willing to resign. An idea that lost credibility. But another analysis was considered: Cipriano Castro did not resign, but was later betrayed by Juan Vicente Gómez, his number two. Which would be Diosdado Cabello or Jorge Rodríguez for Maduro.
4. INTERNAL CONFLICTS WITHIN THE REGIME
Nazly Escalona believes that "the positive side of the US action is that Maduro is unable to find peace and stability... This action forces him to once again question himself, to have to move, to doubt his own environment, to become paranoid." Betrayals are the most significant possibilities. And the economic downturn could trigger them. "These actions directly affect the sources of funding that the tyranny receives," asserts Urruchurtu. In this sense, by reducing the amount of money Maduro's allies receive, "it is very possible that there will begin to be internal tensions within the regime, betrayals, and defections, because they are united by the mafia," Escalona emphasizes.
5. HANDLING OVER MADURO
Among these possible betrayals is the greatest of all: handing over Maduro and obtaining the $50 million reward. Something that could only be orchestrated by those within his inner circle. This could lead to the establishment of democracy or pave the way for a "democratic Chavismo," as political scientist Escalona analyzes. "It's possible that the self-proclaimed and misnamed moderate Chavistas will insert current Chavismo dissidents and reconfigure them in a way that allows them to continue governing, but no longer on the extremist terms they have recently, and they will also desist from drug trafficking to the US, at least."
6. CHAVISTA UNION
"The other thing is that these actions will simply generate greater unification and maximum solidarity among the leadership, where they say: it's now or never, it's life or death, it's all of us or it's no one, and they will entrench themselves," shares the Venezuelan political scientist. To this end, they could use the rhetoric of being "at war" against the US and its allies, which for Chavismo's purposes would be the opposition. In short, they should continue "in the best Cuban style and see themselves as victors despite their misery," as the political scientist explains.
7. LET NOTHING HAPPEN
If the US strategy leads to other lines of action and they directly decide to withdraw their weapons deployment, everything could become an anecdote. "This would be very negative," Escalona believes. "It would be like another advantage for Maduro, and in his speech they would say it was 'another victory against the empire.'" At the same time, the political scientist adds, "it would be further proof that those who support the Venezuelan democratic opposition also lack the strength to pressure or force Maduro's ouster, and that will simply inflate him further. It would be truly catastrophic to generate all this expectation and then do absolutely nothing relevant with it."
But the opposition prefers to ignore this scenario and view the US strategy as a "great opportunity." "It's a hope based on the conviction that we're going to achieve the things that are happening and that Venezuela's freedom is very close," Urruchurtu says. Escalona also summarizes that "this is a key moment to make it difficult for Maduro to achieve peace" and advises "taking advantage of this external action that is disturbing Maduro as an opportunity to reorganize and restructure the dissident struggle under a national liberation movement."