Yesterday, the European Union witnessed one of those rare historical events supported by figures. In the second quarter of the year, the 27 countries recorded their first trade surplus with Moscow, amounting to 500 million euros. "Small," says Brussels. Yes, the figure does not compensate for decades of unequal relations, but it marks a turning point for the EU, which just before the war in Ukraine had a negative trade balance of 47.4 billion euros with its neighbor.
Europe has replaced (or is close to replacing) many of the major dependencies that made it vulnerable to Vladimir Putin's blackmail. The first being energy. The trade deficit in favor of Moscow for energy products has decreased from 42.8 billion euros in the second quarter of 2022 to 4.2 billion euros, a 90% reduction.
On the flip side are fertilizers, a sector that has garnered less attention than gas or oil but indirectly places the supply of essential goods for Europeans in the hands of the Kremlin. Corn, citrus fruits, wheat, vegetables... in essence, agriculture.
Between March 2021 and June 2025, all monitored critical imports from Russia by Eurostat have significantly decreased, except for fertilizers. This group includes natural gas, nickel, oil, and metal.
The EU's exposure to Russian flows of these goods ranged from 18% (metal) to 48% (natural gas) in March 2021. By the end of last June, exposure to these supplies had been reduced to a range between 2% (oil) and 19% (liquefied natural gas).
Contrary to the trend, fertilizer purchases have increased in the last four years, from 28 billion euros to 33.7 billion euros. Consequently, Russia not only remains Europe's largest supplier but has also increased its market share from 28% to 34%. The next suppliers are far behind: Egypt (17%) and Morocco (13%).
The global fertilizer market is valued at around 145 billion dollars (2023), according to McKinsey. Russia, along with China, is a major exporter benefiting from very low energy costs to offer low-cost products. Specifically, cheap gas, crucial for their production, has allowed them to dominate the market. Brussels has already taken steps to change this.
Fertilizer prices have increased by 15% in the first six months of the year, according to the World Bank. Strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortages explain this escalation. The European Union has just imposed tariffs on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. Initially set at 40 euros per ton, these tariffs may increase to up to 430 euros per ton. European manufacturers like Fertiberia anticipate that this will "restrict the entry of low-cost products into the European market."
27% less Russian nickel
In the trade rift between Europe and the Russian powerhouse, there is another key point: critical minerals. The EU-27 have accelerated their efforts to replace the Russian flow of one of these minerals: nickel. Its versatility makes this mineral a highly valuable raw material for the steel, battery, and aerospace industries. Between the first quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2025, the EU's share of nickel imports from Russia fell from 41% to 15% (a decrease of 27 percentage points), while the import shares of the United States and Canada increased over the same period by twelve and six percentage points, respectively. "Although nickel was not on the list of directly sanctioned products, the EU began to diversify its dependence on Russia by increasing nickel imports from other countries," Eurostat noted yesterday. In terms of cost, the Twenty-Seven have gone from paying more than ¤41.2 billion for Russian nickel to allocating less than ¤15 billion.