One day after Israel bombed Qatar to eliminate the Hamas negotiating team, Putin launched a swarm of 19 drones over Eastern Poland. The timing is as crucial as the objective: at a moment when the seams of international norms are bursting, Russia has taken advantage to push its own limits while the focus is elsewhere.
In a "gray zone" strategy, or if preferred, the salami strategy, the Kremlin tests not only the military response to its aggressions but above all the political response. Moscow never launches a major attack with NATO partners, but rather slices small pieces of that salami: cutting communication cables in the Baltic by its ghost fleet, bombing the EU building in Kiev, interfering to confuse the GPS of Von der Leyen's plane, the President of the Commission, a Russian combat helicopter invades Estonia's airspace, and now launches an attack with kamikaze drones of the Shahed type (or perhaps Gerbera, its decoy version). In any case, these are prowling munitions that traveled about 250 kilometers inside Poland, turning the action into an armed aggression. In the same attack, 29 people died on the Ukrainian side. No jokes. Slice by slice, Russia aims to take the sausage.
With each piece that Putin cuts without a strong response, the Kremlin manages to expand its gray zone, that diffuse extension where it can act with impunity without facing real consequences against its regime. The military response involved the immediate take-off of fighter jets and the shooting down of some drones, although it seems an unsustainable response in case of conflict. Russia sent cheap devices (around 10,000 euros) that it can produce hundreds of each day and required the take-off of the ultra-sophisticated and expensive American-origin F35s to shoot them down. Each missile used to bring down those drones is much more expensive than the drone itself, and Russia manufactures almost 1,000 each day. That information, along with the reaction times, is gold for Putin.
But the crucial aspect in this case is the political hesitation: leaders' responses tend to be much slower and more fearful than those of the military. If Putin wants gray zones, Europe should offer clarity and set well-defined boundaries.
The Russian autocrat wants to see, above all, what Donald Trump does now, whom he seems to have figured out with the Ukraine war through ultimatums that are never fulfilled and a failed appeasement. If the US does not act to defend its ally, Russia will feel much freer to continue acting with impunity and more boldly. If the Kremlin manages to make the White House abandon its old European allies, this attack will be a victory for Putin. The Russian autocrat is already preparing the Zapad 2025 military maneuvers this Friday with Belarus and along the Suwalki corridor, the narrow passage between Kaliningrad and Belarus that connects Poland and Lithuania, the true Achilles' heel of NATO.
Francisco José Girao, director of the Defense department at the consulting firm Atrevia, believes that "an isolated action of this kind does not seek to destroy or damage. It aims to measure the one you already consider an enemy or target. Technologically, militarily, politically, and supranationally (the support of allies). An invasion like this of the airspace of the NATO and EU country that invests the most in Defense relative to its GDP (4.1%) is not decided by a captain on the ground; not by a lieutenant colonel, nor a general. Not even unilaterally by a Chief of Staff or a minister...". It is decided by Vladimir Putin himself, who knows that the political divisions in the EU are deep and will exploit each one of them.
This attack represents a new step that the Russians take in their hybrid escalation against Europe, which is hybrid because it already mixes non-military methods, such as hacking or sabotage, with strictly war actions, such as attacking the EU diplomatic building in Kiev or violating airspace with a swarm of drones from one of the community and Alliance partners. "The incursion into Polish airspace may be an accident, but it is a risk that Putin is willing to take given the level of impunity with which Russia has faced its actions," writes Sam Kiley, military analyst for The Independent.
Retired Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat believes "it is more likely to be a mistake, but having said that, mistakes can be prevented. And Putin is not taking special care to do so, demonstrating that he cares little". Although it seems a calculated provocation by the Kremlin, the history of wars that began due to a miscalculation is extensive because Putin is playing with fire.