In recent hours, airspace invasions have multiplied at various levels and in different locations and altitudes. In some places, the authorship of this strategy is clear: Russia and its aircraft are behind it and do not bother to hide it. In other cases, suspicion points to the same place but there is currently no evidence to determine the attribution of the attacks. This hybrid warfare already involves drones, bombers, and even satellites.
The German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, denounced yesterday that "two IntelSat satellites of the German Army are being followed by two Russian reconnaissance satellites, Luch-Olymp." "Russia positions its reconnaissance satellites in immediate proximity to the space systems of the Armed Forces of Germany and allied nations. This shows how close we currently are to real danger situations," said Pistorius.
How can a satellite attack another in space? In the so-called "orbital warfare," the most common attacks are usually false flag operations that allow for denial of attribution: lasers to dazzle or blind optical sensors, electronic warfare to interfere with frequencies or impersonate command and data links, cyberattacks that put the satellite in "safe mode" or divert it from its course, and high-power microwaves that degrade electronics. There are also physical methods: co-orbital satellites that inspect and push optics and panels, and kinetic interceptors (ASAT) that collide. Another strategy is to misalign, dirty, or damage solar panels, force consumption that leaves the system in a negative balance, or, in a very complex way, temporarily eclipse with another nearby artifact. The legal framework (Outer Space Treaty) prohibits weapons of mass destruction in orbit, not conventional ones, so reversible techniques that avoid escalations and, above all, the creation of space debris, the greatest systemic risk for all actors, are proliferating.
The most cited cases of hostile actions in space range from the cyberattack on the Viasat satellite on February 24, 2022 - which left thousands of users and 5,800 wind turbines in Germany without telemetry - to the wave of interferences in the last two years around the Baltic Sea (Finnair even suspended flights to Tartu and several aircraft, including that of the Spanish Defense Minister, reported disturbances). Orally, France denounced the approaches of the Russian satellite Luch/Olymp-K to Athena-Fidus, a pattern that the US pointed out again with more recent assets such as the Russian satellite Cosmos-2576.
But these gray zone attacks, which are expanding these days, experienced several chapters yesterday: the Danish government described the flight of several drones over airfields and military installations in this Nordic country during the last two days as a "systematic hybrid attack," days after a similar incident that forced the closure of Copenhagen airport for a few hours. This morning, Aalborg airport remained closed for an hour due to the possible sighting of drones in the area.
The Danish Defense Minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, emphasized that no "direct connection" with Russia can be established, although he mentioned that "there are countries or actors that may have an interest in reducing support to Ukraine". The Danish police received several reports of drones flying over Danish oil fields in the North Sea, and several ships also claimed to have seen drones. The ships' radars showed signs of these devices flying over them.
As Denmark has not yet shot down any drones, it cannot attribute the attacks to Moscow, something that Warsaw was able to do a few hours after the incident two weeks ago because they were Gerbera devices, of Russian manufacture, only used by their military, and even had their identification and serial numbers. Additionally, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flew less than 100 meters above the German frigate Hamburg last Friday and Saturday, according to Der Spiegel.
Several British, French, and German diplomats had a meeting in Moscow with Russian representatives, according to Bloomberg, to warn them that they would shoot down any aircraft entering NATO airspace. Russia responded that it considers the Alliance to be at war with them already, a statement later endorsed by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.
Several drones flew over the French military base of Mourmelon-le-Grand (Marne) from Sunday night to Monday. These were small devices. This incident "is exceptional," emphasized the French Army. According to the procedure in case of drone overflights, the security measures were reinforced "to deal with this situation."
The latest incident to occur was the invasion of US airspace in Alaska by two Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Su-35 escort fighters. These types of actions have occurred quite frequently in recent months, so for Washington, they do not pose a direct threat, although the Pentagon did scramble four armed F-16s to intercept them in the air and make them leave the area.