Last week, the British Labour Party gathered in Liverpool for their annual Conference (equivalent to a Spanish party Congress), under an ominous sign: not only was the ultranationalist and 'Eurosceptic' leading by more than ten points in the polls, but also, the majority of their voters wanted the party leader, Keir Starmer - who is also the Prime Minister - to step down.
For the Conservatives, who opened their Conference this Sunday, the Labour Party's problems are a source of envy. They are trailing Reform UK by 17.4% points. And their voters want their leader, Kemi Badenoch, to be replaced. But not by any other Conservative, but by Nigel Farage, the founder and leader of Reform. Farage leads Badenoch by nine points in the polls. The only consolation for the Conservative leader is that her rivals in the party leadership are even further behind: between 14 and 20 points. Therefore, there is no immediate danger of anyone wanting to take Badenoch's position. But not so much due to lack of desire, but because it seems like a position destined to manage a historical failure.
When voters of one party want the leader of another party, it indicates that things are really going wrong (for the former, obviously). So, the Conference begins under the shadow of the potential extinction of the "natural party of Government," as the Conservatives like to call themselves, given that, in their 193 years of existence, they have been in power for 135, which is a staggering 71.1% of that period. At this rate, the next elections, which are supposed to be in the still-distant 2029, could be the ones where the Conservatives are replaced by Reform UK. If that were the case, it would be the first time the players change in British bipartisanship since 1925 when the Labour Party eliminated the Liberal Party and relegated it to third place, which in the UK's electoral system means falling into absolute irrelevance.
So, if last week the Labour Party declared Reform UK as their true rival in the race to the Prime Minister's office, now it's the turn of the Conservatives, albeit more for survival reasons than for power. Starmer's party focused its message on strengthening the fight against illegal immigration, which is practically the sole focus of Reform UK's program. Badenoch's party has gone even further.
The first 'Tory' messages, launched yesterday, aim to combat Reform by... emulating Reform. This boils down to two things: severing the remaining ties between the UK and the rest of Europe and implementing a 'Trumpian' immigration crackdown policy.
In the first aspect, the Conservative Party has announced that, if they win the elections, the UK will withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights, a judicial body predating the European Union, with over 40 member countries, including non-EU nations. Their decisions have forced several Conservative governments to backtrack on their immigration and penal policies, sparking criticism for alleged interference in British sovereignty. Ironically, when she was elected as a 'Tory' leader a year ago, Badenoch strongly criticized Farage's promise to leave the Court if he ever comes to power, which then seemed highly unlikely and now sounds almost inevitable.
The second Conservative proposal is to create a security force similar to ICE, the US border and anti-immigration police, which has become the cornerstone of Donald Trump's policy and has been accused of numerous human rights violations due to its brutality in arrests, frequent use of violence, and detention of US citizens, partly thanks to a recent Supreme Court ruling allowing the arrest of suspected illegal immigrants based solely on their physical or racial appearance.
Badenoch's plan envisions this police force having an annual budget of £1.6 billion (¤1.85 billion). This police force would have a simple yet impressive mission: deporting 150,000 people from the UK each year. This is a significant number because there are between 700,000 and 1.2 million undocumented immigrants in the UK.
The other part of Badenoch's strategy, like any leader in trouble, is to ask for patience. "I have said that I will do politics differently, and that means being patient and taking our time until we have things clear," she stated yesterday on the public broadcaster BBC. At least the Conservative leader has the advantage that, although her leadership is weak, no one wants her gone for now. It's another story as the elections approach; her tenure will be at risk. But that's still three or four years away.
The Party of Disraeli, of Churchill, of Thatcher (but also of Chamberlain and of 'Brexit', which opened a rift at the root of the current crisis) is undergoing a slow-motion demolition. Badenoch's only card, therefore, is to be more 'Farage-like' than Nigel Farage himself in an attempt to save the 'natural party of Government' from extinction.