It has been 22 years since the EU welcomed a new member, not counting the one it lost on January 31, 2020, when the UK definitively lowered the blue flag with yellow stars. On July 1, 2013, Croatia joined the community, a country that serves as a model for its six Western Balkan neighbors. Five of them, with approved candidacies and ongoing negotiations - North Macedonia (2005), Montenegro (2010), Serbia (2012), Albania (2014), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2022) - and the last one, Kosovo, considered a potential candidate but still without official status and without recognition from five EU member states (Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania, and Slovakia).
A total of 16,350,547 citizens waiting for a membership that seems to never arrive. A tough journey through the desert where water is scarce. Albania and Montenegro lead this particular race, estimated to reach a conclusion by 2030, with Serbia losing momentum in recent times due to significant Russian influences in the country led by Aleksandar Vucic and the complicated relationship with Kosovo, whose independence declared by Pristina in 2008 is not recognized by Belgrade.
Recently, the President of the European Council, António Costa, stated that "enlargement to the Western Balkans is a geopolitical investment for peace and stability" after meeting with the Albanian Prime Minister, Edi Rama. Even though one of the candidate countries, North Macedonia, has been waiting for its turn for two decades since its candidacy was approved.
The European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, praised the progress of these states at the recent summit of the region's countries held in early July in Skopje, the Macedonian capital, but also emphasized the need to continue with pending reforms, especially focused on economic development - their economies are at 35% of the EU average level - and the legal reforms they must undertake to align with European standards: "Europe cannot be united without the Western Balkans", Kos emphasized. "In a world that is fragmenting, enlargement remains our unification project," the Commissioner pointed out. "I invite partners to seize this opportunity and redouble reform efforts."
This "opportunity" was also one of the key points highlighted by the Danish Minister for European Affairs, Marie Bjerre, when her country took over the EU Council Presidency until the end of this year. "If we do not progress, we risk losing them," Bjerre emphasized, as "in the Western Balkans, we see that the United States has withdrawn, and Russian influence is very present." "It will be more expensive for Europe if we do not make progress with enlargement," she asserted firmly.
The latest Eurobarometer, published last May, asked citizens in the region about this issue. It indicated that over 80% of Montenegrins and Albanians believe that their EU accession would be a positive development. In North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the figure ranges between 50% and 60%, while in Serbia (which recently commemorated the 25 years since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic), only 34% of citizens say that integration would be good for them.
What do experts think? We have selected six political analysts, born in each of these six aspiring states and territories, to get firsthand insights into their views on their future EU accession. We asked them the same two questions.
Daniel Prroni, researcher at the Institute for Democracy and Mediation
1. After years of stagnation, things are finally moving. Albania has opened 24 out of 33 negotiation chapters in six months, and it is expected to complete the rest by the end of the year. This is an unusually rapid pace compared to Serbia or Montenegro. The government aims to join in 2030. Albania has been labeled as a "pioneer," although it is challenging to pinpoint the meaning of this label. The key question is what explains this momentum and if it is sustainable. Much of it seems to be due less to internal reforms and more to external factors, mainly the Russia-Ukraine war, which reactivated the EU enlargement policy after almost a decade of stagnation.
Looking at the actual preparedness of Albania, the outlook is less encouraging. The speed of reforms has not kept up with the pace of negotiations. The pattern remains the same: modest progress in some areas and setbacks in others, especially in the rule of law and media freedom. Unless the EU adopts a more rigorous approach, we risk ending up with another situation like Serbia, an endless process driven more by appearances than transformation.
Furthermore, reforms in Albania should not depend on the EU's mood. Linking internal progress to Brussels' political calendar is a risky bet. Albanians expect better governance and quality of life, not as a reward for good behavior but as a starting point, with or without EU accession.
2. Accession is indeed influenced when conceived as a bloc. The label "Western Balkans" is a political construct of the EU, with little historical or cultural roots in the region, which speaks volumes. The reality on the ground is much more fragmented. The six countries are at different stages, with varying levels of preparedness and political drive behind them. This is not new. The region's countries have been grouped based on procedural milestones and changes in EU priorities. Albania has been paired with Kosovo and Bosnia, then with North Macedonia, later treated as a separate case, and now grouped with Montenegro as a "favorite." Thus, the seating arrangement is constantly being rearranged.
The idea might be for the region to join the EU as a whole, but it seems increasingly unlikely. One concern about admitting countries one by one is that those who enter first may later obstruct the others, given the persistent tensions and unresolved disputes among them. One way to avoid this would be to limit the veto power of new members over future accessions. However, whether they join as a bloc or individually, each country will have to address its bilateral issues, especially the Serbia-Kosovo relationship, before any real prospect of accession becomes viable.
Empty seats before the start of the EU and Western Balkans summit in Brussels last December.EU
Stevo Muk, President of the Board of the Institute Alternativa
1. I believe Montenegro currently has a good chance of joining the EU in the coming years. The EU has clearly conveyed this message, and now Montenegro must fulfill the obligations within the established deadlines. The EU's open-door policy towards Montenegro is the result of new geopolitical circumstances in Europe, as well as the desire to send a clear signal that the enlargement process is ongoing and that tangible results will be rewarded.
Moreover, considering Montenegro's size, the burden on the EU budget and other potential risks for the Union are exceptionally low. Although the pace of closing negotiation chapters is slightly slower than initially anticipated, there are still good chances that the process will conclude on time.
2. Besides Montenegro, only Albania has realistic chances of joining the EU in the near future. For the other Western Balkans countries, EU accession is clearly much further away due to various reasons: bilateral disputes, democratic deficiencies, corruption, and other challenges.
Although the six Western Balkans countries are often perceived as a regional bloc, in practice, their accession paths are increasingly divergent. It has become evident that the European Union intends to maintain the merit-based advancement principle, whereby each country's progress will be assessed and rewarded individually, rather than depending on the group's overall readiness.
Aleksandar Djokic, Political Analyst for various media outlets
1. With the current national-populist regime in power in Serbia, I believe that the chances of progress even in negotiations with the EU are very slim. The Cluster 3 [Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth] remains closed, despite President Vucic's promise to open it in January. The current regime is not actually seeking EU accession; it is content with Serbia remaining a candidate and with pre-accession funds remaining available. Becoming a member of the EU requires democracy, transparent governance, and the rule of law, none of which the current Serbian regime is willing to comply with.
2. It does have an influence. Grouping these politically different countries simply because they are neighbors did not have a positive impact. NATO enlargement did not follow the same path and accepted these countries individually. For example, linking Montenegro's accession with Serbia's slowed down the path of the former towards the EU, and currently, half of Montenegro's government is closely linked to Vucic's regime in Serbia. I believe this perception is changing, and that Albania is advancing faster on its own, with Montenegro lagging behind due to Serbia's malicious influence.
NORTH MACEDONIA
Branimir Jovanovic, economist at The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
1. The chances for North Macedonia are zero in the next 10 years or so. The formal requirements it has to meet - changing the constitution now to start accession talks, and then meeting numerous conditions from the bilateral protocol between Bulgaria and North Macedonia - are unacceptable to a large majority of the population.
By accepting Bulgaria's bilateral demands [due to a dispute over Bulgarian minorities], the EU made an offer that the population of North Macedonia simply cannot accept. The only way forward is for the EU to change its approach and give up these bilateral demands, but I do not think this will happen soon, as Bulgaria has a clear interest in blocking North Macedonia.
2. I believe that considering the Western Balkans as a bloc is a thing of the past. It is now clear that the EU has shifted to a regatta principle [the set of rules and norms governing sailing competitions] and will accept countries one by one as they meet the individual accession requirements.
Montenegro will probably be the first to join, perhaps as early as 2030. Albania will follow, a couple of years later. Serbia could also join, depending on who is in power there - the current leaders are not interested in joining the EU and are quite content sitting on various chairs, meaning flirting with the EU, the US, Russia, and China, but if there is a change in power and pro-EU forces come in, it is possible. North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo will probably never join, at least not in the foreseeable future.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Adnan Cerimagic, analyst at the European Stability Initiative
1. I do not see our chances as good, nor those of our neighbors. Despite Brussels' grand words, EU enlargement is stuck. Without a clear, concrete, and achievable goal - such as full membership or full integration into the single market - no Western Balkan country will be ready or incorporated in this decade. Set the goal, and progress will come on its own.
2. It does matter if they are conceived as a bloc, but it depends on how. If the EU sets a clear date by which it will be ready to welcome prepared candidates, either as full members or as integral parts of the single market, as in 1999 for the Eastern enlargement, it could unlock true reforms. Not all may join at once, but the momentum would be regained. That is what matters.
KOSOVO
Arbëresha Loxha, director of the Group for Legal and Political Studies
1. As an aspirant, Kosovo has made its orientation clear, but very few tangible steps have been taken to bring it closer to accession. In 2015, it signed the Stabilization and Association Agreement, considered a precursor to EU accession. It officially applied for membership in 2022, but the European Council has not yet debated it. One of the main obstacles is the non-recognition of Kosovo by five EU Member States: Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain. The Ohrid Agreements of 2023 could have been a positive boost for Kosovo's application, but they did not materialize. Kosovo's case is even more specific, as its accession perspective is also closely linked to achieving a definitive agreement in the dialogue process with Serbia.
2. The other five countries in the Western Balkans are at different stages of the accession process. Given the current situation, it could be thought that an accession as a bloc would only be realistic if the geopolitical situation necessitated it, similar to the case of the start of the war in Ukraine.