The leader of the British Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, closed the Conference of that political party this Wednesday promising everything to everyone. There was something for every type of voter, whether it be young people overwhelmed by the lack of access to housing, traditional conservatives who distrust the state, critics of immigration, or citizens who want less inflation.
Badenoch has proposed 'coffee for all' and has also added croissant and orange juice. The problem is that it sounds a bit desperate, with a party that, after two hundred glorious years of political domination in the UK, faces, for the first time in its history, the real risk of falling into irrelevance. Bloomberg news agency columnist Rosa Prince summed up the atmosphere of the Conference in two details, which is the equivalent of a Spanish party congress. One: there were photos of Margaret Thatcher, but none of Badenoch. And two: a year ago, after receiving the worst electoral beating in its history, 3,700 delegates attended the Conference. This year, only 3,300 did.
Badenoch's latest promise was the abolition of the tax on home purchases, which could cost the state coffers around 9 billion pounds (10.4 billion euros). In addition to that, the elimination of the property transfer tax on agricultural estates and VAT on private school fees.
The fiscal gap that this would represent in a country striving to bring its deficit below 3% of GDP and living with an eye on debt interests would be more than covered by public spending cuts of 47 billion pounds (54 billion euros), which would include laying off public employees, efficiencies in the public administration, and cuts in development aid, although the details of the Tories' plans in that regard were not clear at all.
It was the culmination of a speech in which Badenoch reviewed British history, emphasizing the country's and the party's heroic moments - the post-World War II era, the Margaret Thatcher era -, perhaps to make it clear that the Conservatives have already weathered other wilderness journeys, although this one, with only 18% of the seats in Parliament, is particularly tough.
So the Conservative Party wants, in the words of its leader, to "rebuild social mobility" and "make the UK a country where, if you work hard, you thrive." These are phrases with which Badenoch pursues a dual objective. First, to present herself as a radical alternative to the 'status quo', a role that Reform-UK led by Nigel Farage has monopolized and leads in all polls. And at the same time, to neutralize the criticisms of a lack of ideas, which is what the growing critical sector of the party accuses them of. The question, obviously, is that such an extensive list runs the risk of sounding desperate. Which would make sense, considering that 64% of Tories want a pact with Reform-UK and 46% want a merger with that ultra-nationalist party.
Badenoch has also tried to be more of a Reformer than Farage, promising to abolish the target of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, something her own party established when in power, and promising to reopen oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. And, of course, hardening immigration policy by creating a police force modeled on the US ICE - the anti-immigration police force that is being accused of abuses and use of violence - and the expulsion of 150,000 undocumented immigrants per year. The eurosceptic part was covered with the promise of the UK's withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights.
However, all these promises come against the backdrop of the biggest electoral drop for the Conservatives in their history and with the reality of polls putting them in third place in voting intention, far behind Reform-UK - which almost doubles them -, and about three points behind the Labour Party, but with the centrist Liberal Democrat Party nipping at their heels.
The Tory voter is now facing a double dilemma. On the one hand, their party is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish from Reform, so why not vote directly for Farage? On the other hand, if the voter is centrist or a moderate conservative, especially in social matters and in relation to the EU, their only option is the Liberal Democrats. At this moment, the Conservative Party does not seem to have great ideas of its own, nor a good leader, nor an enthusiastic base.
In that context, there is another option, almost as desperate as Badenoch's: her replacement. Robert Jenrick, a conservative by instinct, is the clear alternative to the leader, who has already stated that she does not rule out running or supporting alliances to "unite the right" with Reform-UK, something that Badenoch flatly rejects. At the Conference, Jenrick was well-received by the delegates, but publicly supported Badenoch at all times, perhaps with the intention of letting her fail in the upcoming May local elections and then try to overthrow her.
If he did, he would become the seventh Tory leader in ten years. That generates an image almost as bad as Badenoch trying to revive the party. The idea of ten leaders in a decade feeding such rapid turnover would imply that in 10 years, the Tories have tried half a dozen faces without success, fueling the narrative of a "fragile party," lacking consistency or institutional leadership. This is devastating for undecided or institutional voters who prioritize stability and solvency. Each change further erodes the brand, as if every leader were emerging and ephemeral, without real authority. Additionally, each new leader would have to rebuild internal pacts, realign divergent factions, and take on the burden of cleaning up the previous mess. The Tory future is dark, with or without Badenoch.