The Special Military Operation of the Vladimir Putin regime has been going on for 1,331 days and is approaching the league of the longest conflicts in contemporary history, very close to World War I, with 1,567 days, surpassing the Korean War (1,129 days), the Greco-Turkish War (1,246 days), and our Spanish Civil War (988 days). This is not counting the war in Donbass, which began in 2014.
So far, we have experienced several phases: the initial invasion days, when it seemed that Russia would quickly occupy the country and overthrow the government of Zelenski, the Ukrainian resistance, which thwarted the Russian objective and defeated the invading troops in Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson, the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, the capture of Avdiivka by Russia in 2024, and the emergence of drone warfare, leading to a stalemate on the frontlines in 2025.
Both armies are now exhausted after nearly four years of bloody and attritional warfare, but there is still no peace in sight, following Putin's flattery game in response to the appeasement attempts of Donald Trump, who seems to have finally realized that the Russian autocrat only wants to buy time and remove him from the Ukrainian equation. But Trump's latest message to Putin finally places the responsibility for the carnage on the butcher: "Stop killing Ukrainians and stop killing Russians." At this point, with the fourth winter of war knocking on the door, these five scenarios stand out for this conflict:
1. Donald Trump forces a precarious peace
After the ceasefire and the launch of his peace plan in Gaza, Trump has already instructed his chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, to focus on ending the war in Ukraine, although the approach this time has changed. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared last Wednesday: "If there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take necessary measures to impose costs on Russia for its ongoing aggression."
It is true that no direct action has been taken against Moscow yet for its refusal to negotiate with Zelenski, but now the White House, motivated to enforce "peace through force," has identified Putin as the sole obstacle to achieving that ceasefire. If they manage to bend his will, that precarious truce may not solidify due to the lack of security guarantees and Russia's overt goal, to end Ukrainian sovereignty and bring it under Kremlin control with a government aligned with its interests.
Some analysts propose real mechanisms through which Trump could increase pressure on Putin (secondary sanctions, pressuring buyers of Russian oil, or supplying long-range capabilities to Ukraine). However, the practical likelihood of "forcing" Putin to negotiate a lasting peace in the short term is low because for the Putin regime (not for Russia), the war in Ukraine is "existential," and it will continue to fight at any cost. "Negotiations have stalled as Russia continues to demand broad concessions," says the Carnegie Center. "Negotiations cannot end Russia's war against Ukraine; they can only pause it," states the Institute for the Study of War.
2. The war escalates and spreads to some NATO partners bordering Russia
Although Russian provocations have been limited so far to airspace violations with fighter jets or drones and gray zone operations, such as sabotage and hacking, it is evident that Moscow is escalating its hybrid war against Europe and playing with fire because a miscalculation in any of these missions could be catastrophic. Several European intelligence services have warned (Germany's being the latest) that Russia is preparing a provocation against a NATO country, especially the most vulnerable ones: the three Baltic republics.
Russia wants to test the Alliance's true commitment and the validity of its Article 5, but any land invasion, no matter how small, could have serious consequences for the continent's security. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated, "Russia could attack deep into Europe, so it would be irresponsible not to prepare for defense." "Kremlin officials continue to apply the same narratives to the Baltic countries that Russia has used to justify its invasions of former Soviet states in the last three decades. Kremlin narratives about 'Russian compatriots' in the Baltic countries and in the Russian world in general are part of the efforts that the Kremlin has been making for years to create the conditions that justify a possible Russian aggression against NATO in the future," writes the Institute for the Study of War.
3. The war continues in 2026 without successful efforts to stop it
It is, in fact, one of the most plausible scenarios because neither the Ukrainians are going to surrender (something that Moscow is beginning to understand after almost four years) nor can Putin afford to escape the war without something he can call a victory. Although both countries are depleting their resources at a good pace, Europe currently supports the Ukrainian state and its army, while China sustains the Russian economy by purchasing oil at a good price, and North Korea supplies ammunition to its troops. "Ukraine is planning this war for another three years, and that is reasonable," stated Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
4. The Russian economy deteriorates, and Putin must sit down to negotiate the end of the war
For the first time since the invasion began, there is genuine concern in the Kremlin about the rapid deterioration of the Russian war economy in recent months and its negative forecasts for 2026. Since 2022, Russia has been experiencing increasing strain: its liquid reserves have plummeted (recently estimated at around $31 billion), and some analysts warn that it could run out of covering deficits before the end of the year. According to Reuters, export revenues from oil and refined products have been steadily declining: in September 2025, profits from crude oil and fuel decreased even though export volumes reached recent highs, reflecting damage to the internal refining capacity due to drone attacks from Ukraine.
Economic growth has sharply moderated: the IMF lowered its forecast for 2025 to just 0.6%, down from 4.3% in 2024. Inflation remains high (8-9%), and the Central Bank has maintained high-interest rates of over 20%, complicating credit and private investment. Soviet military warehouses have been almost completely emptied, and weapons factories are already operating at the limit of three shifts per day. The Moscow Times reports that "Russia faces a stagnant economy with increasing pressure on its public finances, limiting its ability to sustain the current intensity of the war beyond 2026."
Although no sudden collapse is expected, more analysts are predicting a gradual deterioration that will impoverish the lives of Russians and put an end to Moscow's ability to sustain its aggression against Ukraine for much longer. World War II introduced a new rule in global politics: states that initiate wars of aggression tend to be defeated in the long run.
5. Allies' support dwindles, and Ukraine is forced to yield to Russia's maximalist demands
Although unlikely due to pressure from partners closer to Russian borders, who are increasingly threatened, hypothetical political changes in Europe towards positions aligned with Hungary's Orban or Germany's AfD could lead to a shift and gradually cut off aid to Ukraine.
With the Trump administration already distanced, European support is crucial today for sustaining the Ukrainian state and its army. Although the local war industry is becoming more efficient and advanced, its survival depends on the funds coming from Brussels. Without them, having lost refugee population to Europe and part of its industrial capacity due to bombings, the chances of maintaining this war of attrition for Ukraine are minimal.
According to the European External Action Service, European aid is now the fiscal and military anchor that allows Ukraine to continue functioning and fighting: on the civilian side, the Ukraine Facility guarantees stable financing of up to ¤50 billion to pay salaries, pensions, and essential services, and is complemented by other macro-financial packages and loans of ¤45 billion.
Militarily, the EU has channeled tens of billions in support for weapons and ammunition (via the European Peace Facility and associated programs), trained more than 80,000 Ukrainian military personnel, and supported artillery efforts through initiatives such as the Czech ammunition plan (millions of shells committed and $4.5 billion contributed by donors). All of this, together with plans to use frozen Russian assets, sustains the resilience of the Ukrainian state and army as the war continues.