Of all the swings in arguments that Donald Trump has made in the eight-month peace negotiation with Vladimir Putin, ranging from calling the Russian army a "paper tiger" to defining Zelenski as a "dictator without elections," he now offers one that doesn't sound bad to the European Union. It involves freezing the war "along the current front lines," exactly what the blond U.S. president said 24 hours after the meeting last Friday on Air Force One, contradicting what he had told the Ukrainian delegation at the White House, where he pressured them to hand over the Donetsk region to Putin. Depending on who he talks to first, the tycoon defends one thing or the other.
Would Zelenski agree?
The President of Ukraine could swallow that bitter pill if it brings peace (although everyone in his country believes it would be a precarious peace), but he would not recognize de jure those occupied territories as Russian, although de facto he would. That is the limit that the Ukrainians are willing to reach, as they are not willing to give away any region to Moscow that has not been militarily conquered.
Is this a firm position from both Washington and Brussels?
No, because Washington has always been closer to buying into the Kremlin's narrative, which demands surrendering all of the Donbas to achieve a ceasefire, and the volatility of the U.S. president is greater than that of cryptocurrencies. As for Europe, from the beginning, it has followed Washington's guidelines without defining a single realistic plan of its own to support Ukraine and to force Russia to sit at the negotiating table with sincere proposals.
Does Russia have an intention to negotiate peace?
No, Moscow pursues the victory it has not achieved on the battlefield and no longer hides it. Yesterday, Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, stated that Russia would not accept any ceasefire because that would mean "giving wings to a Nazi regime" and to an "illegitimate government." In other words, beyond the theater that Putin plays to buy time, the Kremlin itself acknowledges that its intention is for the invasion to continue until its objectives are met, which include ending Ukraine's sovereignty as an independent country. As long as Putin can call Trump and stroke his ego to undermine all the diplomatic work of his allies, time will continue to work in his favor, with soldiers from both sides dying.
If Russia does not want to end the war, then what are Moscow and Brussels playing at?
Both are aware that there is no common ground. Russia demands impossible things to grant (what they call "the deep reasons for the war") when it has not yet won any war, and Trump's flip-flops are like a roller coaster (pun intended). The U.S. president is a man who actually cares very little about Ukraine and only sees the war as an obstacle to weaving his businesses and commercial relationships, as he makes clear in every message on his social network. But both Europe and Putin want to attract him to their interests. Putin, to buy time, frustrate him, and disconnect him from aiding Ukraine, so that he ultimately loses interest, which he is gradually achieving. European allies seek the opposite, for his Administration to be much more involved in the economic and military pressure against Russia.
What role does Spain play in all of this?
Well, less and less. The fact that Pedro Sánchez has disconnected from the commitment to the 5% in Defense signed to converge with NATO has distanced him from his European partners, while he is also not present in the purchase of U.S. weaponry for Kiev and is not expected to take tangible measures in the so-called Volunteer Coalition. Beyond words, Spanish military support to Ukraine is fading away at the worst possible moment.