Donald Trump returns to the Asian stage. The question is whether he does so as a reconciling statesman or as an imperialistic businessman ready to lecture partners and rivals. His first stop is this Sunday in Malaysia, where he will participate in a summit of Southeast Asian countries. On Monday, he will be welcomed in Tokyo by the new Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who trusts that the nationalist streak that unites her with the Republican will help strengthen the security alliance. The highlight of the trip will be in South Korea, where Trump will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday.
Geopolitics and economics intersect in a scenario where China's influence has been gaining ground in recent years. Trump faces the challenge of reaffirming Washington's power while addressing trade imbalances and trying to counter Beijing's projection, which has taken advantage to approach its neighbors with each blow of the global trade war initiated by the American.
At a time when many Asian countries have questioned whether Washington remains a reliable partner, Trump, in his own way, will likely renew classic alliances (Japan and South Korea), strengthen ties with developing nations that were suffocated by his tariffs, and have a conciliatory meeting with the leader of the superpower challenging him. It has not been ruled out that, taking advantage of the trip, Trump will try to arrange a meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. "If he wants to meet with me, I am willing to do so, without a doubt," he said to reporters aboard the presidential plane en route to Malaysia.
So far, the Asia-Pacific region seems to have been relegated to a secondary role, at least in terms of media coverage or direct impact, regarding Trump's foreign policy, which has been more focused on other more conflictive areas. For months, the White House's strategy in this part of the world has been limited to the widespread use of tariffs to readjust what the American leader considers unfair trade practices of many countries that depend on the US as their largest export market.
Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, is the venue for the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which Trump attended only once during his first term (in 2017). In addition to the American president and the leaders of the 10 group countries, Brazilian President Lula da Silva, South African Cyril Ramaphosa, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang have also been invited. On the presidential plane en route to Malaysia, Trump said he also expected to meet with Lula, with whom he has had several diplomatic clashes in recent months.
The summit's agenda includes the great attraction for Trump of being able to score a point again as the great global peacemaker. An official peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia is expected, two countries that engaged in a military confrontation along their disputed border during the summer. Trump, along with Malaysia, was the mediator of the ceasefire.
Trump's next stop is Japan, where he will deliver a speech to US military personnel at a US naval base in Yokosuka, near Tokyo. He will then have a bilateral meeting with the new Japanese leader, whom he will question about the commitment Tokyo made during the trade agreement both countries sealed this year, under which Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in US projects. Although Prime Minister Takaichi will try to steer the meeting towards regional security. "The military activities of China, North Korea, and Russia are a serious concern. We will expand ties with the United States to new heights," she stated on Friday.
The highlight of the trip will be in South Korea, which is hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit this year, starting next Friday. However, the media spotlight will be more focused on the lead-up to this event, particularly on the anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, the only world leader who has stood up to him during the trade war, retaliating against every US tariff blow.
Tensions have escalated in recent weeks between the world's two largest economies, particularly after China announced restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump threatened to retaliate with new tariffs. From Washington, it has been indicated that the American president hopes to reach an agreement with Xi to at least extend the current tariff truce, for China to relax restrictions on rare earths, and to commit to buying more soybeans from the US.
Both leaders have spoken at least three times this year, most recently in September, when they discussed an agreement on TikTok's operations in the US. "China and I will have a really fair and excellent trade deal. I think we will end up with a fantastic agreement. It will be fantastic for both countries and for the whole world," said the American this week, who recently revealed his plans to visit Beijing early next year.