The fifth largest economy in the eurozone and one of the most developed states in the world, the Netherlands, has been plunged into political paralysis for over two years. The abrupt departure of former Prime Minister Mark Rutte - now Secretary General of NATO - in the summer of 2023 opened a crisis that has remained unresolved for over two years. An at times unbearable political atmosphere, extreme polarization, maximum fragmentation, endless negotiations to form a government (the last one lasted eight months), and governments that collapse before completing a year, as happened in early June 2025, are symptoms of the country's serious political ailment.
This Wednesday, October 29, more than 13 million Dutch citizens eligible to vote will once again have the polls open to choose the new Parliament of The Hague. There is a great weariness in Dutch society, a growing desire for stability, according to analysts in the country.
The electoral campaign has been a faithful reflection of this chaotic panorama with a certain climate of street violence, destruction in the headquarters of some parties, interruptions of left-wing rallies by neo-Nazi groups, or death threats against the far-right leader Geert Wilders, who won the last elections and even had to cancel his campaign for a few days on police advice.
"The current situation is unprecedented, totally unexpected just over two years ago," laments Anne Marie Reynaers, PhD in Administration Sciences from the University of Amsterdam in conversation with EL MUNDO. "The Netherlands has had coalition governments for decades, with a deeply rooted culture of dialogue and collaboration; two years later, those values no longer seem to exist," she adds.
What has happened in recent years for the Netherlands to descend into political turmoil? Firstly, the housing crisis with unattainable prices, the decline of public services, the increasing perception of migration as a problem, citizen insecurity, and the growing success of the Islamophobic Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Wilders, have polarized politics with bitter debates full of insults and increasing citizen unrest.
However, Reynaers and other Dutch experts agree on the growing weariness of the majority of citizens, which will lead, according to polls, to significant declines in votes for the four parties that formed the failed previous government (the PVV, Rutte's VVD, NSC, and the farmers' BBB). Some may even disappear, such as the New Social Contract (NSC), which could go from 20 seats to zero.
The main polls still point to Wilders as the favorite, but losing almost 10 seats (from 37 to 27 / 30). However, this time he will not be able to govern. All other parties with possibilities of forming a government reject sharing a cabinet with the far-right given the disastrous experience of the last government, which Wilders dismantled last summer by leaving the coalition because he could not implement "the most restrictive migration policy in history," he said.
The electoral manifesto of the PVV details that the party was created to "protect the Netherlands from Islamization", which is "the greatest existential threat to freedom."
Political scientist Matthis Roodujin analyzes that "there are two groups of PVV voters." Firstly, "the group that fears Islam and seeks a strong leader against that culture," and then "there is a less radical group." "Geert Wilders managed to convince both in the 2023 elections, but in these, the latter group could change their vote," he estimates.
Since Wilders is the most likely winner but unable to form a coalition this time, the battle to lead the government is being fought by the two parties tied for second place, as highlighted by Floor Bremer, political analyst for RTL News in a meeting with Spanish journalists. The two candidates with the most possibilities to be the next Dutch Prime Minister are the former Vice President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans (candidate of GroenLinks / PvdA, the social democrats) and the Christian Democrat Henri Bontenbal (leader of the CDA). In recent days, the young and incisive Rob Jetten (38 years old), leader of D66, also center-left, has joined the fight for the second place.
Analysts agree that these parties - if they confirm winning between 20 and 24 seats each, as the polls suggest - are likely to form a 'grand coalition' Dutch-style: social democrats, Christian democrats, plus two or three more parties to surpass 75 seats, the limit for an absolute majority in the Parliament of The Hague.
Another reason explaining the current instability of the country is the enormous political fragmentation, with up to 15 parties in a Parliament with 150 members. As Bremer adds, there is no electoral threshold, and it is very easy to found a political party and obtain a minimum of 60,000 or 70,000 votes, which entitle to a seat in this country of over 18 million inhabitants.
The elections will reflect a significant punishment vote against the People's Party for Freedom (VVD), Rutte's party that won the elections in the country for over 20 years until 2023. This time, everything indicates that their current candidate, Dilan Yesilgöz, who has shifted towards the hard right to compete with Wilders, may fall to the fourth or fifth position.
However, polls show an open scenario because over 50% of voters admitted in the last days that they had not decided their vote.
Regardless, Reynaers believes that after the elections, the parties that have agreed to isolate the far-right will have to find common ground to form a stable government that addresses the current enormous instability.
Geert Wilders. This 63-year-old natural provocateur, a populist and very agile in debates, is a veteran of Dutch politics who will win the elections, according to all polls. Before the 2023 campaign, when he moderated to approach power, he cultivated radical Islamophobia and spoke of the "Moroccan scum," for which he was convicted.
Frans Timmermans. The former Vice President of the European Commission could be second or third. A moderate social democrat, he highlights his international experience as one of his strengths.
Henri Bontenbal. Another candidate with chances to be Prime Minister. Leader of the CDA (Christian Democrats), he has a moderate profile and is distant from radicalism.
Rob Jetten. This young Dutch politician (38 years old) has been the protagonist of some recent televised debates, which has boosted the chances of D66, his center-left party, in recent days.