On Tuesday night, Zohran Mamdani won the municipal elections and will be the next mayor of New York. The youngest in a century, at 34. The first Muslim and the first of Asian and African descent. And the second socialist in the history of the city of skyscrapers. There are many numbers that give clues about the population's discontent and his victory with a campaign focused entirely on 'affordability'.
The $3,500 minimum average cost of a one-bedroom apartment in New York ($4,800 in Manhattan). The 12% increase in rents for affordable housing (over a million units) during Eric Adams' tenure, the outgoing mayor. The 350,000 millionaires living mainly in Manhattan. Or the 50% increase in the cost of living in the last decade throughout the metropolitan area.
Mamdani, Trump's nemesis who appeals to optimism and hope
But there is one particularly shocking fact that explains why during his celebration speech Mamdani said that in the future, when he looks back, he will probably only regret that "this day took so long to arrive": more than 140,000 minors, 15% of all students, lack permanent housing. They are formally homeless. "This is a city where one in four people lives in poverty, a city where 500,000 children go to bed hungry every night," denounced the candidate in his rallies.
Mamdani was the Democratic Party's candidate, after winning the primaries before the summer. But his soul and heart are with the Democratic Socialists of America, the DSA, a small but no longer marginal party. That has been gaining strength in recent years and is competing with the traditional establishment, thanks to figures with a lot of appeal among young people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Senator Bernie Sanders. With much more leftist and interventionist ideas than those of the establishment, and much more aligned with European left-wing parties.
The kind of ideas that have "terrified", in his own words, Wall Street. In the last six months, the messages from the wealthiest, investors, companies, and lobbies have been almost apocalyptic. Dozens of them have threatened to leave, talked about the city's destruction, even written opinion pieces about their fear, especially those who are Jewish.
Investor Bill Ackman, one of the best examples of billionaires who have embraced Trumpist ideas in recent months, believes that his ideas "would be disastrous for the city of New York. Socialism has no place in the economic capital of our country. New York City's ability to provide services to the poor and needy, let alone the average New Yorker, depends entirely on it being a business-friendly environment and a place where wealthy residents are willing to spend 183 days and bear the associated tax burden. Unfortunately, both have already begun planning their exits." The elected mayor recently joked that the over two million dollars that Ackman has invested against him are "more than we would have ever taxed him."
More than 35 billionaires have contributed funds to Mamdani's rivals in the campaign. Major funds like Citadel or Apollo urged all their employees to vote to try to ensure Andrew Cuomo's victory and not "candidates with extreme views incompatible with our values." Other prominent figures had a different opinion. Cliff Asness, owner of the hedge fund AQR Capital, posted on his social media the iconic scene from Planet of the Apes, with Charlton Heston, the remains of the Statue of Liberty on the beach, and the phrase: "Maniacs! They blew it up!". "It's crazy that a socialist has been elected mayor of the financial capital of the world," lamented this morning Anthony Pompliano, one of the cryptocurrency kings.
There are two different levels with Mamdani right now, someone who, as his campaign acknowledges, had not anticipated what happened even in their wildest dreams. They didn't give themselves even a 3% chance at the start of the process. The primary victory caught them off guard, they had to improvise and professionalize. And now they will have to put into practice what were proposals and ideas aimed at changing the narrative and pushing the candidates with better chances.
The first level involves his identity discourse. The new mayor was trained in racial, gender, and decolonization theories. He wrote his thesis on Frantz Fanon and Rousseau, and tweeted linking the queer movement to defunding the Police. On Tuesday night, at the Paramount Theater in Brooklyn, he began his speech quoting Eugene Debs, saying "I can see the dawn of a better day for humanity". Or Jawaharlal Nehru: "There are moments, though rarely in history, when we move from the old to the new, when an era ends and when the long-suppressed soul of a nation finds its voice," he celebrated by quoting the 1947 midnight speech of India's first prime minister celebrating independence.
The second discourse, that of the campaign, is very different and has evolved. It is much more conciliatory, less disruptive. He has reached out to all sides, hired experts in many areas he is unfamiliar with, and resorted to classic Democratic Party figures to build bridges with Wall Street, real estate developers, and the Police. It is striking how all millionaires draw a red line at the fact that Mamdani decides to keep the city's Police Commissioner, Jessica Tisch, in her position. Ironically, she is the daughter of billionaire Jim Tisch.
His main proposals have to do with the cost of living:
- Freeze rents for four years, but not citywide, only in what are known as affordable housing units, totaling just over a million in the entire metropolitan area. He himself lives in one of these very small apartments, for which he pays $2,300 a month.
- Free universal education for children up to five years old, expanding current programs that cover almost all 4-year-olds and many 3-year-olds, estimated to cost around $6 billion a year, nearly the same as the entire Police Department budget.
- Raise the minimum wage from the current $16.50 per hour to $30 per hour by 2030. "As has happened so many times, the billionaire class has tried to convince those earning $30 an hour that their enemies are those earning $20 an hour," he said Tuesday night in his victory speech.
- Free public transportation (about $800 million a year). His team argues that half of the users do not pay in general, and this would increase driver safety and reduce traffic.
- Create something similar to municipal supermarkets, one in each of the city's five boroughs. Something that exists sporadically in other states. Thanks to being exempt from certain municipal taxes, they could offer cheaper food to families with fewer resources. He estimates the cost to be around $60 million for the five stores.
- Increase taxes on the wealthiest, although he cannot do it alone and has few allies in the state legislature. "Tax the rich" has been one of the main chants of his campaign and rallies. To finance his initiatives, he proposes raising the corporate tax by four or five points, up to 11.5%, the same as New Jersey, which he says would generate an additional $5 billion for public coffers. And an extra 2% tax on those earning over a million a year, which he believes will contribute another $4 billion. The state of New York's corporate tax currently raises around $6 billion annually with a taxable base of nearly $100 billion, but that does not mean that simply increasing the maximum tax rate by five points will raise $5 billion. Since 2021, New York companies already pay a 7.25% tax if they earn over $5 million, and New Jersey's maximum rate does not apply until $10 million. Mamdani expects to raise more revenue also through outstanding fines, hiring more tax inspectors, and reforming administration to expedite permits.
- Another key element of Mamdani's platform is the creation of a Community Safety Department, which would expand city mental health services, including creating a system for specialists to respond to 911 calls related to health issues instead of the Police.