The COP30 in Belém officially takes off this Monday after the preamble from leaders and the desperate call from Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for multilateralism: "The Earth is one. Humanity is one. The responses must come from everyone and for everyone." Delegations from 170 countries will take the baton until November 21 at the so-called "summit of truth," the most crucial of the decade, which will either reignite the flame of climate action... or expose the increasing resistance in a world marked by geopolitical tensions.
"What is at stake is the survival of the spirit of Paris," warned Laurence Tubliana from the outset, considered one of the architects of the historic agreement reached a decade ago. In the face of Donald Trump's boycott, who considers climate change "the greatest scam of the century," the international community "must close ranks and reaffirm its adherence to the agreement," according to the director of the European Climate Foundation.
"COP30 must demonstrate that multilateralism works," emphasized summit president André Correa do Lago, who has placed the so-called Global Mutirão at the top of the agenda, a word used by indigenous communities to "harvest, build, or help each other," with the hope of giving new impetus to the faltering climate action.
The rapprochement between the European Union and China, supported by Brazil as the host and the world's eighth economic power, could save a summit that starts with low expectations, despite the symbolic choice of the mouth of the Amazon as the backdrop for the negotiations.
The attendance of leaders at the anticipated summit was in fact the lowest since 2019. In addition to the absence of a high-level delegation from the US, there was the boycott by Argentine President Javier Milei, and the distance marked by Japan's new iron lady, Sanae Takeishi. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang made a tepid call for international cooperation, and European leaders, with Emmanuel Macron at the forefront, lashed out against "the prophets of disorder" from the far right who seek to disrupt climate action of the past decade.
The first agreement of COP30 was sealed before the official start, with the launch of the Forever Tropical Forest Fund (TFFF). The fund aims to conserve over a billion hectares of forests by attracting $25 billion in public contributions and up to $100 billion in private capital. As a calling card, Lula Da Silva boasted of having reduced over 50% of deforestation in the Amazon.
Lula himself reported that 100 countries have already submitted updates of their Nationally Determined Contributions, outlining their plans for CO2 emissions reduction. Initial estimates speak of cuts that are clearly insufficient, in the range of 10% to 15% by 2035, when a 60% reduction would be needed to keep temperature increases below 1.5 degrees.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres himself has warned of the "moral failure" and "deadly negligence" that would result from breaking the ceiling set by the Paris Agreement of 1.5 degrees. Current projections place that increase at 2.8 degrees over the century with current trends.
The planned production of fossil fuels until 2030 is actually double what is estimated as necessary to maintain the 1.5-degree target, according to estimates from the Stockholm Energy Institute. The recent revelation of the shadow role played by the oil industry in the last three COPs, with the participation of over 5,000 lobbyists, has served to once again bring to light the major taboo at climate summits.
Lula da Silva himself has come under fire for authorizing oil exploration in the mouth of the Amazon during the countdown to COP30. In an attempt to make amends, the Brazilian president urged delegates to "chart a roadmap to overcome fossil fuel dependency in an orderly and fair manner." As was the case at COP28 in Dubai, where the word "transition" was introduced for the first time, any mention of fossil fuels will face strong resistance from producing countries.
Another key point at COP30 will be the New Climate Financing Goal, reached at the last minute at COP29 in Baku, where developed countries committed to leading the delivery of $300 billion annually to developing nations. The 'Baku to Belém Roadmap', presented on November 5, includes a commitment to raise the bar to $1.3 trillion with private sector involvement, multilateral banks, and the IMF, in addition to external actions such as debt swaps and carbon markets. The North/South gap will once again be evident in the new negotiations on mitigation and adaptation financing planned at COP30.