Brussels estimates that the Spanish economy is significantly decelerating. According to the autumn economic projections published today, Spain's GDP will increase by 2.9% this year, with growth of 2.3% in 2026 and settling at 2% by the end of the analyzed period, in 2027. The data show an improvement compared to the spring figures and are in line with what the Government will present on Monday, but moderation is evident.
Additionally, the Commission maintains Spain as the country with the highest unemployment rate in the European Union. This year's forecasted rate is 10%, and by 2026, unemployment will decrease to 9.8%, reaching 9.6% in 2027.
"Real GDP growth is expected to remain strong in 2025, at 2.9%, gradually moderating thereafter. Economic activity is projected to be driven by domestic demand, supported by a still strong labor market performance that will sustain private consumption, as well as by investment contributions," Brussels states in its growth forecasts.
Even so, Spain's comparative data is very positive. For example, Germany will only see a 0.2% increase this year and 1.2% next year, while Italy and France will remain below 1% growth both this year and next. The average growth in the eurozone is 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027.
"It is projected that the positive trend in the labor market of recent years will continue throughout the forecast period. The expected job gains are mainly attributed to ongoing migration inflows, significantly expanding the workforce and boosting job creation. The unemployment rate is expected to continue its downward trend, reaching 10.4% in 2025 and dropping below 10% in 2026 and 2027. These levels have not been seen in over ten years, although they remain among the highest in the EU," it continues. However, when looking at comparative tables, Spain is not just among the highest, it has the highest rate.
Following Spain is Finland, which has seen a noticeable increase in unemployment figures in recent years, reaching 9.5% this year. The eurozone average will be 6.3%, and the EU average will be 5.9%.
"The deficit is expected to continue decreasing due to the gradual elimination of energy measures and the reduced impact of exceptional measures due to floods, although partially offset by increased interest payments and defense spending," the Commission document continues. "Overall, the public sector deficit is projected to decrease to 2.5% in 2025," and in 2026, the figure will be 2.1%.
As for public debt, its level relative to GDP will also drop below 100% in 2026: next year, the figure will be 98.2%. In 2027, the number will decrease to 97.1%. Not only does the debt share with unemployment the fact that next year they will cross a key level, but even so, Spanish data will remain among the worst in the EU. In terms of debt, it ranks fifth worst.
The highest figure belongs to Greece, which will end the observed period with a debt of 138% of GDP but with a downward trend. More concerning is the situation in France and Italy, where the trend is upward. Italy's public debt will reach 137% in 2027, very close to Greece, while France will increase its figure from 116% in 2025 to 120%.