The eventful Climate Summit in Belém (COP30) entered its final stretch with scenes of maximum tension regarding the aftermath of the fire that caused the evacuation of the UN blue zone on Thursday, amidst the crossfire between petrostates and countries in favor of a roadmap for the end of fossil fuels. After the conference was suspended for six hours due to the fire, it seemed likely that the most chaotic climate summit of the last decade (amid fires, floods, and protester incursions) would extend beyond the finish line of this November 21 without any signs of a final agreement on the table.
The situation at the start of Friday was so pressing that the President of COP30, André Corrêa do Lago, visibly tired after the last round of negotiations, had to make a general plea to the delegations of 189 countries: "We need to preserve the Paris Agreement with a spirit of cooperation, because if we do not strengthen it, we will all lose."
The decision by the Brazilian presidency to exclude the roadmap in the penultimate draft prompted a swift reaction from 29 countries (including Spain) who threatened to boycott a final agreement if a "commitment" on a "fair, orderly, and equitable" transition away from fossil fuels beyond what was approved "in extremis" at COP28 in Dubai was not reached.
"This is an expectation shared by a vast majority of the parties, as well as by science and civil society closely watching us," read the letter, also signed by countries such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Sweden, the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Vanuatu, representing island states. "The world expects this COP to show continuity and progress, and any other minor decision would inevitably be seen as a step backward."
The French Minister of Ecological Transition, Monique Barbut, was very direct in her accusations against the boycott led by petrostates. "Who are the major blockers?" Barbut asked. "We all know. They are the oil-producing countries: Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia. But many emerging countries are joining them."
"Negotiations are going to be very tough until the end," predicted the German Minister of the Environment Carsten Schneider, who could not hide his indignation at the temporary exclusion of the "roadmap," a demand included by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the leaders' summit preceding COP30.
The European Commissioner for Climate, Wopke Hoekstra, went even further and warned that the Brazilian summit could end in failure: "What we have on the table right now is unacceptable. And since we are so far from where we should be, we are really facing the possibility of a 'no agreement' scenario."
Saudi Arabia, the main obstacle
The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, even identified Saudi Arabia in his meeting with European ministers as the main obstacle to progress towards an agreement on the "roadmap." The pressure from the Arab group - composed of around twenty countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar - is also seen as another factor that may have led Brazil to temporarily withdraw the mention of the "roadmap" (Venezuela and Bolivia may have also joined the "resistance" as oil producers).
The traditional North/South confrontation that marked the last COPs, with climate financing as a hot potato, gave way in Belém to a new dividing line due to fossil fuel production, with emerging countries deeply divided on the issue.
The absence of the United States by decision of President Trump and the ambivalence shown not only by Brazil (the eighth largest oil producer in the world) but also by India and China (still heavily reliant on coal) have further complicated the possibility of finding common ground.
The Brazilian presidency, which included the mention of the roadmap in the first draft, was still considering intermediate formulas to avoid binding commitments and ensure that no country could be forced to adopt a timetable to end the production or consumption of fossil fuels. Most countries, however, initially showed willingness to launch the so-called "Global Implementation Accelerator" as a "cooperative and voluntary" initiative that sets the path towards COP31 in Turkey.