The former Portuguese Prime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso (Lisbon, 1956) knows the ins and outs of the EU like few others, as he led the European Commission for a decade (2004-2014). In such decisive times for our continent, we took the opportunity to inquire about the turbulent international current affairs during his visit to Madrid, where, as a distinguished member of the School of Politics, Economics, and Global Affairs at IE University, he presented the new Master in Public Policy.
Question. As President of the European Commission, you had to face the greatest economic crisis in the EU since its creation. How do you remember those years from a distance?
Answer. It was extremely difficult. We were not prepared to face it. We didn't have the tools. So, in a way, we had to build the lifeboat in the middle of the storm. For example, we didn't have a European IMF-like entity to support countries. That's why we had to create it gradually, even though it was difficult to convince governments. I am perfectly aware of how challenging it was in terms of economic, social, and even political costs. But I can also say that I am proud that we were able to avoid what most people predicted at that time: Greece leaving the euro, the so-called Grexit, and also the collapse of the euro, despite all the doomsday predictions. There is a story I like to tell: in 2012, I organized a meeting at the European Commission headquarters with the chief economists of the major banks operating in Europe. And all of them, except one, told me that it was impossible to keep Greece in Europe. In fact, they advised me to expel Greece from the euro, as it could be negative. And half of them said that the euro, as it existed, could not continue. They were wrong. And it's because, although they were highly qualified individuals, they underestimated the resilience of the European Union and the strength of the euro. But it was an extremely difficult challenge.
Q. If back then the challenge was economic, now it is about security and defense. Are both situations comparable?
A. I believe that today the situation is much more complex.
Q. Is it much worse?
A. Yes, it is the worst situation we have had in the world since World War II. A more fragmented, polarized, unpredictable, and dangerous geopolitical situation due to the global power competition between the United States and China. Also, due to the effects of the pandemic. Covid reinforced economic nationalism and the current crisis of multilateralism. The level of uncertainty is much higher. And, regarding Europe, we are facing a more challenging situation than before, with a much more aggressive Russia, a much more assertive China, and more unpredictable United States. Personally, I believe the most significant transformative moment was the large-scale invasion launched by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine three years ago. Because the world, not just Europe, will not return to the previous situation. However, Europe is finally investing in Defense and no longer wants to be what I call a geopolitical teenager. And to all this, we add the scientific revolution, the impact of Artificial Intelligence, and other technologies not only in our economy but also in societies and how we interact. Therefore, for me, it is a much more challenging and difficult geopolitical situation than what I experienced as President of the Commission.
Q. However, you just mentioned European resilience. Do you believe that once again it can save us from the crossroads?
A. I often say that Europe needs a crisis to make decisions. The EU is built through crises and successive responses. Human nature tends to procrastinate. Tough decisions are postponed. And, you see, we needed the financial crisis we talked about earlier to create some instruments. Or we needed the pandemic to accept that the European Commission could purchase vaccines on behalf of all Member States. That is not in the treaties, but in an emergency, what was previously impossible became possible. And, finally, we needed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine for Europeans to start thinking about Defense in a much more serious and credible way. However, the problem we have in Europe today is that there is no spectacular moment, a trigger, like in the financial crisis with the collapse of some countries, or as in the pandemic, with so many deaths from Covid. Hence, I still do not see the sense of urgency and the scope of decisions we need.
Q. But are you optimistic? Do you believe that in the end everything will turn out fine?
A. Frankly, I don't know. What I do know is that we must prepare for it. We must do more. Let's hope it's not too little or too late. We need to carry out reforms in our economic systems to cope with this difficult situation. For example, we need to invest more. Unite the public and private sectors for technology and science. We need some form of debt combination for Defense. For example, we need a more ambitious European budget. There is not enough mobilization. It is true that today there is an awareness of the challenge: I refer to people who are aware that we now have an aggressive Russia, an assertive China, and an unpredictable United States. Therefore, there is a kind of anguish and anxiety in Europe. But I still do not see - despite the very good reports, analyses, and diagnoses - the execution. The problem in Europe, the typical one, always has to do with execution. By nature, the European Union tends to delay decisions because it is a very complex and complicated system, in addition to being democratic. Therefore, my appeal, if I may, is to the leaders of our countries and European institutions: be brave, introduce that sense of urgency.
Q. Are the leaders then to blame for this lack of urgency? Is there a leadership problem in Europe?
A. I am not talking about blame. I don't want to blame anyone because I believe that today everything is more difficult. And not only in Europe. The United States had a government shutdown for several weeks and is highly polarized. Or look at Brazil and many countries around the world. Nowadays, politics is more challenging than before, probably also due to the impact of social media. What I want is to try to understand what is happening. And also, of course, to directly answer your question. Yes, for now, it is a matter of leadership. We need leaders who understand that this is the time to make bold decisions. It cannot be business as usual.
Q. You lived alongside extremely strong leaders, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Nicolas Sarkozy. However, they failed miserably by not seeing the real Russian threat and by betting that what was happening in Crimea was an exceptional case.
A. I remember very well when the Crimea crisis erupted. By the way, Putin is the non-European leader I have met with the most in my life. It's incredible. And he blatantly lied. He said it was not an invasion, that there were only some relatives, cousins, and tourists there. We cannot trust him. I also remember how the United States, Barack Obama, were the first to say they would not send ground troops, that there would be no military action. A decision that, of course, I understand perfectly. Another thing was, of course, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, including the attempt to take Kiev, where the Russians failed due to the great courage and resistance of the Ukrainian people and leaders. In this case, Europe is now doing more. And I think it is very important that we continue to do so. Because it is not just about Ukraine, it is about Europe. Ukraine is, of course, an important country. But let's think for a moment: if Putin were to get what he wants in Ukraine, that would be the greatest incentive he could have to launch something against one of the Twenty-Seven or NATO countries. Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU, but if something were to happen tomorrow, for example, against one of the Baltic countries, we would be forced into a large-scale war with Russia. Do we really want that? I believe not. That is why my opinion is that, once again, the old Roman saying 'if you want peace, prepare for war' applies. Not because we want war, but precisely because we want to avoid it. We have to show that we are strong enough so that others do not dare to attack us. That is why what is happening in Ukraine is of vital importance, not only for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole and also for the world.