"To merchants and industrialists, their own fallacies easily convince them that favoring the private interest of a part of society acts for the benefit of the whole society." The truth of that phrase - which is not from Marx or Keynes, but from Adam Smith - has been demonstrated by Silicon Valley financier David Sacks, who works part-time in the Government of Donald Trump as a cryptoser (without, of course, any conflict of interest). Sacks, who already in October 2022 said that the State should not help anyone and in March 2023 that the State had to guarantee all deposits of the Bank of Silicon Valley (also a coincidence), recalled on Monday that if investment in Artificial Intelligence falls, the US will enter a recession, something "we cannot afford." The message points not to direct intervention, but to the Federal Reserve, which meets on the 10th, lowering rates, not to help the US but only Silicon Valley.
Ministers, millions, and missiles: Who will take over the sky and the business of Ukraine?
The skies of Ukraine are a commercial battlefield worth between 20,000 and 40,000 million euros, with the next confrontation scheduled for Wednesday, in a new meeting to discuss the military aid of Kiev's allies. The goal is to create a stable anti-aircraft defense system for the war and also for the day after, when Ukraine will need to continue arming itself in case Russia decides to invade again. The US wants the missiles to be theirs (the Patriot), and for them to be bought by the European partners of NATO (and Canada). France and Italy have their own missiles (ESSI/SAMP-T) and do not want NATO to get involved, so they can control the operation. Germany and the Nordic countries propose a joint system with Ukraine, which also allows them to secure the contracts (including the licensed manufacturing of the Patriots). And the Eastern European countries, straightforwardly: buy Patriots from Trump and send them to the front.
When water costs as much as rent: Kabul could be the first capital without water
In the developed world, we are used to seeing statistics indicating that people spend, for example, a third of their disposable income on housing. In the capital of Afghanistan, Kabul, the statistics are about water. There are families that spend 30% of their income to obtain it. And 65% of the population has gone into debt to buy it, according to the NGO Mercy Corp. These are signs of a catastrophe that, according to the UN, could make Kabul the first capital in history to run out of water in five years. International aid to Afghanistan is plummeting, and it is not clear whether the Taliban regime will be able to secure investments from its ally China worth hundreds of millions of dollars to alleviate a crisis that has already dried up 50% of Kabul's water intakes. To the west, the capital of Iran, Tehran (15 million inhabitants), could also run out of water in the next decade.
With Trump hiding GDP, CPI, and unemployment, will the Fed have to resort to tarot cards?
In a moment of low growth, inflationary pressures, and trade war, it is at least worrying when a State stops publishing macroeconomic data. Even more so when the head of State and Government of that country abruptly dismissed the head of labor statistics in August, after these reflected a significant deterioration in the labor market. But that is what is happening in the world's largest economy: the United States. The preliminary GDP data for the third quarter has been postponed indefinitely. The CPI and unemployment for October have been canceled. And labor costs, private consumption, import prices, and retail sales for September are heading in the same direction. The official reason is the closure of the public administration in November. But the political intention seems impossible to ignore. Thus, the Federal Reserve will have to decide on monetary policy in December with a Ouija board and tarot cards.
Trump criticizes arms sales to Ukraine... from the system he himself created
"The United States continues to sell massive amounts of arms to NATO for them to distribute to Ukraine." With the dollar sign included, Donald Trump posted a message on his Truth Social network a week ago. The tone of complaint in the message was contradictory because Trump was the one who forced his allies to establish the so-called Prioritized Requirements List for Ukraine (PURL, in English), under which European allies and Canada buy equipment from the US to transfer to Ukraine. In reality, US military support is almost non-existent in terms of equipment. Since Trump took office, Washington has not allocated new budget allocations for Ukraine, and the weapons reaching Kiev are part of programs approved by Joe Biden. The assistance provided by the United States is critical, but only in terms of intelligence and espionage regarding Russian movements.
Pro-Trump account in Asia or Africa? The mystery of bots and VPNs in Musk's X
That X account (formerly Twitter) that accurately reflects the national situation... Could it be in Pakistan? Or in Nigeria? That is the question that many users of Elon Musk's social network have been asking in the last two weeks after it allowed access to the location from which messages are posted. The idea uncovered a huge number of pro-Donald Trump accounts that are actually in Asia and Africa, although it is also unclear whether those locations are correct, as it is possible that some anonymous (or pseudonymous) X users use VPNs to hide their true location. Moreover, the percentage of X users who are bots may have increased from 11% (when Musk bought it saying "we will end the bots or die trying") to between 20% and 64%. This lack of credibility also affects advertisers on X because selling something in Texas (or Madrid) is not the same as selling it in Karachi.