Warnings that war is approaching Europe are on the rise. Almost simultaneously, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense have indicated that Vladimir Putin has already set his sights, and the risk of conflict is very real.
"The shadow of war is knocking at Europe's door," warned the UK Minister of Defense, Al Carns, yesterday during the presentation of a new Military Intelligence Service. And from Berlin, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte only deepened that same idea: "We are the next target of Russia and we are already in the line of fire."
"We all must accept that we need to act now to defend our way of life. Because this year Russia has become even more brazen, reckless, and ruthless, both towards NATO and Ukraine," Rutte continued during his visit to the German capital. And furthermore: "We are facing a conflict on the scale of the wars our grandparents and great-grandparents endured."
Rutte sets a deadline of up to five years for Russia's attack, that is, by 2030. "NATO's own defenses can hold for now, but with its economy focused on war, Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO," he added. But according to intelligence services from the Netherlands or Germany, as European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has mentioned on more than one occasion, Putin could be ready in just two years.
These warnings are also in line with those made just a few days ago in this same newspaper by the former NATO military chief, Rob Bauer: "There is a risk of a nuclear war between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance in three to five years." "The Russian Armed Forces, especially the Ground Forces, are rapidly reconstituting because their economy is in full swing. We know their ambitions," he added.
For this, all voices point out that first, Russia must seal some kind of peace agreement with Ukraine, something that seems increasingly close. And once that is done, rearm, rebuild their armies, and start a new campaign. Therefore, in Brussels and in capitals geographically closer to Russia, there is so much emphasis on the need to advance in rearmament. To increase military spending to 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
"We know that, for our security in Europe, we must do much more than in the past. This was made very clear at the NATO summit in The Hague, where we made decisions on the 3.5% and 5% defense spending targets," also pointed out yesterday by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
This discourse contrasts significantly with that of the Spanish Government, which refuses to go beyond 2% of spending. That figure, NATO points out, could help Spain surpass the initial capability assessments, which will take place in the first half of next year. But afterwards, the Alliance adds, that investment will fall far short. "It will soon be demonstrated," Rutte insists whenever asked about this issue.