The Doha Forum is the conference organized by Qatar every December, a different showcase to observe world politics, as it is not an event dominated by the West. Those leading the way are, obviously, the Qataris. But with them goes a part of the Global South, the new powers seemingly destined to lead the world in the 21st century, to whom sacred concepts in Europe like the West or transatlantic community provoke a mix of discomfort and laughter.
And this year, the Forum coincided with the collapse, more or less visible, of that transatlantic relationship. The United States, through the words of Donald Trump's son, Don Jr., seems more interested in following a patrimonialist governance model than a liberal democracy, which brings it closer to some countries in the Global South and distances it from a Europe that, at least at this moment and seen from the Persian Gulf, seems smaller, more lost, and also more ignorant of its own irrelevance than ever. This week, Washington has intensified its pressure for Ukraine to cede territory and sovereignty to Russia in exchange for unspecified security guarantees, treating the old continent as a mix of ideological rival, region on the brink of collapse, and an area where Washington aims to subvert the political order.
Despite the EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, stating in Doha that everything is fine in the transatlantic relationship, the fierceness of the US National Security Strategy has knocked Europe out. Europeans are starting to consider as a real possibility US interference in their elections to support nationalist and anti-EU parties. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has already embraced the ideas of a White House that has accepted as true the replacement theory, meaning a plan to replace whites in the West with Arab, Latin American, African, and Asian populations. All these parties now openly backed by the White House are also pro-Russian.
The US is serious about Ukraine
The situation is dire for Ukraine, which is fighting for its immediate survival as a sovereign country. The US does not seem willing to ease the pressure for Europe to stop aiding Kiev. It is not unlikely that Trump may even decide to end the PURL (Priority Requirements List for Ukraine), the mechanism he created last summer to sell weapons to NATO partners, which would then be forwarded to Ukraine. If the PURL ends, the supply of anti-aircraft missiles to Kiev would be seriously jeopardized, and Ukraine would not be able to continue the war.
Europe needs two years to establish a sustained supply line to Ukraine. Few believe that, with Trump, the United States is willing to maintain aid to that country for so long. One of the prevailing theories in Doha was that the United States had released its National Security Strategy precisely now and without moderating its aggressive tone to pressure Europe on Ukraine. The US is not concerned about Ukraine's future. As US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said in Doha, "Ukraine will have to accept the agreement reached, and Russia will have to respect it in the long term." However, the peace agreement includes detailed territorial and sovereignty concessions in foreign policy and defense that Kiev must make, as well as economic contributions from the EU, while only vaguely mentioning "security guarantees" to Kiev.
Donald Trump, with his wife, at the 2026 World Cup draw to be held in the US, Canada, and Mexico.MANDEL NGANAFP
Trump wants peace for Ukraine and Gaza... and money for the United States
"The alliance between the United States and the European Union cannot only be based on economic, commercial, and business interests. It is also based on shared values, and an interest in human rights and democracy." This is how Jon Brennan, former CIA director under Barack Obama, expressed his view on the US-Europe relationship to EL MUNDO.
Brennan is certainly not an ally of Trump, who has repeatedly stated that the former spy agency chief "should be in jail." But his cautious words point to something underlying Trump's peace plan for Ukraine: Europe provides the money to rebuild the country (between 100,000 and 200,000 million euros), and the United States manages it according to its criteria. The agreement foresees collaboration between the US and Russia in cryptocurrencies, a sector where Moscow has no leadership but is controlled in the US by Trump's allies, some of whom, like David Sacks, even work in the White House, or are cabinet members, like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. It also includes a plan to develop critical minerals exploitation, an industry to which the Trump administration is granting significant subsidies to selected companies without transparency, some of which are companies in which Don Jr. has interests.
Not surprisingly, one of the two negotiators on the US side is Trump's son-in-law, the financier Jared Kushner, who holds no public office and is also a central figure in the Gaza peace plan. The potential economic interest of the Trumps and their circle in peace in Ukraine could be one of the elements making it very difficult for Europe to influence the negotiations.
In the developing world, admiration for the European integration system was boundless in the first decade of this century. The EU, with the euro, was the model that countries dreamed of. Then came the euro crisis, and admiration for the economic aspect faded. With Ukraine, the geopolitical aspect has vanished. The EU speaks of Russia as an "existential threat", but it is unable to articulate a response not directed by the United States. Adding to this its lack of weight in artificial intelligence (AI), the cloud, and other technologies, its future geopolitical weight seems destined to shrink. The lack of strategic capacity is evident in the fact that the US and Russia were able to negotiate a peace agreement on their own that in practice is a surrender of Ukraine without anyone in Europe being aware.
"Where has Europe gone?" asks Trita Parsi, vice president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute, founded with money from both the right (the Koch brothers) and the left (George Soros) and, although American, born in Sweden. "How is it possible that it has not played a mediating role in the Gaza war? Before, when there was a conflict, there were negotiations in Madrid, agreements in Oslo, in Paris, or in Geneva. How can it claim to have moral authority when it is unable to have a policy with practical effects in a country, Ukraine, with which it shares a border?" he continues. His analysis concludes with a resounding: "After this, what moral authority can it claim to have?"
Traditional relations between Europe and the US are a thing of the past
A European country's politician commented in Doha: "What surprised me the most about the intervention of the US ambassador to NATO is that he said he found out about the National Security Strategy through the press."
It reflects what seems to be a new distribution of power in the White House that countries like Russia, China, or the different Gulf emirates understand better than the European legalists. Moscow managed to reach an agreement with Washington through Kushner and Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, whom the US president knows because he is a prominent real estate businessman from New York with whom he has been playing golf for decades (rumor has it that Witkoff lets him win to please the ego of the current White House tenant). Marco Rubio, who is not only the Secretary of State but also the National Security Advisor, was unaware. And when he tried to sabotage the agreement, he was humiliated into retracting within hours.
This dynamic is accentuated because Trump is 79 years old and has heart problems, and although he still leads all major issues, his agenda does not seem as overloaded as in the past. But he is delegating more. And, as in the case of Ukraine or Gaza, he is doing so to people he trusts, not to the officially appointed high-ranking officials.
Europe, therefore, will have to play more the Starmer card, that is, the strategy of the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, with the help of the king of that country, Carlos III, by personally flattering Trump offering him State visits or praising his golf courses. The big problem is that, with a public opinion manifestly hostile to the US president, it seems unlikely that any politician without Starmer's apparent disregard for his popularity will do so.
The US is not going to break with Europe.
Despite all of the above, the US is not going to leave NATO. Or, at least, that's what Whitaker said in Doha. Nor break with the EU. The National Security Strategy itself acknowledges that Europe is a key region that also has military superiority in all areas, except nuclear, compared to Russia. What Washington wants is a Europe ideologically more aligned with Trumpism, or, in Whitaker's words, "more culturally aligned" with the US, as stated by the US ambassador to the Atlantic Alliance. Whether that is compatible with the Europe that exists today will be known in the future.
The example of Canada
When the liberal Mark Carney won the elections in Canada in April, he gave a clear order to his government team: prepare to disengage the country from the US.
His arguments were weighty. Trump had stated on multiple occasions his intention to annex Canada. On April 28, the day of the Canadian elections, Trump had declared that the country would have "ZERO TARIFFS if it becomes the celebrated 51st state of the United States of America". Even before assuming the presidency, Trump had posted a montage on the internet with him under the Canadian and American flags with the caption "Oh, Canada!" in front of snowy mountains. Ironies of geographical ignorance: the mountains were the very European Alps, and in the background was the unmistakable silhouette of the Matterhorn, marking the border between Italy and Switzerland.
It was not just about trade. The cornerstone of the security of Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand is the intelligence-sharing system known as Five Eyes, with the US. But since Trump's arrival, the US, which obviously dominates that structure, had started to provide less information, especially regarding Russia. On June 10, the US Department of Defense announced a review of Aukus, the pact for the construction of atomic submarines reached in September 2021 with Australia and the UK.
Since then, Canada has been seeking new markets and new economic and technological alliances. It will never be able to disconnect from the US, a country with which it shares the world's longest border and an air defense command, and which has a GDP 14 times larger and a population eight times greater. But its intention is to reduce that dependence to the maximum. Like many Europeans, Carney believes that Trumpism is not a historical exception, but the new direction of the United States.