The oil market is currently in what is called a "broken" or "hybrid" curve. This means that traders expect a relative scarcity - or, at least, tensions - in the short term, and an abundance of supply, exceeding demand, in the long term. To put it simply: right now, there is a sense of relative scarcity; starting in May, a turning point is expected; and, by summer, much more oil should flow.
This situation started in October, solidified last month, and the crisis in Venezuela has not played a role. The reason is that, even after the production increase that the country experienced this year until the U.S. blockade began, its production never exceeded one million barrels, which represents around 0.95% of the world's crude oil.
Therefore, the market has reacted with indifference to the capture of Nicolás Maduro. In fact, the price of oil dropped by 1% at the opening of the futures market in New York due to the possibility that in the coming months, the end of Chavismo could allow the Latin American country to increase its production.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. But that is of no use if the infrastructure to extract that oil has been destroyed, if the fields are damaged, or if exploiting part of those fields is prohibitively expensive. The Caribbean country suffers from these three problems, so even if oil starts flowing in the coming months, it will be in moderate amounts. The oil that Donald Trump talks about has, at least for the next few years, a high chance of staying where it is: underground in Venezuela.
The best example of this situation was given yesterday by the OPEC+ itself, that is, the cartel of 22 emerging or developing oil-exporting countries, including Venezuela. In November, eight OPEC+ countries (including the two largest exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia) froze their production until March in an effort to prevent the price of a barrel from continuing to fall. Yesterday, Sunday, the representatives of these governments held an online summit to decide whether to stick to their plans or pump more oil. The meeting was brief and ended with an expected decision: for now, they will not inject more oil into the market.
The final press release of the meeting does not mention Venezuela, Maduro, or even once. On the contrary, its title describes a petroleum market situation marked by "market stability caused by the absence of changes in global economic forecasts, and the 'good health' of fundamentals, as reflected in low inventories."
Global inventories are rising, indicating that prices will remain relatively low, around $60 per barrel. When referring to "low inventories," OPEC+ is talking about commercially stored oil in industrialized countries of the OECD. But that is only a fraction of the world's crude oil stocks, which also include those of emerging and developing economies, strategic reserves, and oil and derivatives on ships.
This indicates that Venezuelan oil is too insignificant to have an impact. Moreover, the market is tired of political risks that never materialize into supply disruptions. In 2025, oil went through a war in the Middle East - between Israel and Iran, the latter being the third-largest country in the world by reserves -, the continuation of Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and the start of the embargo on Venezuela. And yet, the price of a barrel of oil dropped by 20%. The crisis triggered by the U.S. action adds to tensions - resolved with bombings - between the Emirates and Saudi Arabia for control of Yemen. None of this has disturbed the oil traders.
The outlook now is for a recovery in Venezuelan oil production in the medium term. However, in the short term, it could still fall further, even if Delcy Rodríguez reached an agreement with Donald Trump to lift the blockade. The reason is that Caracas has had to limit the import of products used in refining the extracted oil.
In reality, Venezuelan oil began to disappear from the market in October when the United States began its military deployment in the region. This is how exports from that country to China, which after a series of moves by the Donald Trump government in the first half of the year was practically its only buyer, dropped from approximately 700,000 barrels per day to less than 600,000.
But the key moment was on December 16 when the U.S. imposed a total blockade on Venezuelan oil, meaning that Caracas could only sell oil to no country, except for the approximately 150,000 barrels per day it gives to the U.S. oil company Chevron as in-kind restitution for debts. Since then, oil exports have plummeted. Now, Donald Trump has said that the blockade remains pending the actions of Delcy Rodríguez's new government, so for now, there are no changes.