According to Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, the airstrike in Caracas was for legitimacy and democracy. "Nicolás Maduro is not the president of Venezuela, and his regime is not the legitimate government. Maduro is the head of the Cartel of the Suns, a narco-terrorist organization that has taken over a country. And he is indicted for trafficking drugs into the United States". According to Vice President JD Vance, it is a matter of drugs and natural resources. "President Trump offered multiple ways out, but he was very clear throughout the process: drug trafficking must cease, and stolen oil must be returned to the United States. Maduro is the most recent person to discover that President Trump is serious". And according to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, it is because with demonstrations like the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities or the capture of Maduro, the whole world gets the message. "It's called PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH. After the disastrous years of Joe Biden - when the United States was woke, weak, and in retreat - President Trump and the Department of War are RESTORING DETERRENCE."
But the important opinion - and motivation - is that of the president. And the president, this Saturday, said many other things, leaning for the second time, after Iran, towards the most bellicose and interventionist wing of his Administration. That Maduro was a criminal and will have to face justice, curiously for charges similar to those that led to the conviction of the Honduran Juan Orlando Hernández, inexplicably pardoned and released by Trump a few days ago. But also that María Corina Machado, "a very kind lady," cannot take charge of Venezuela "because she does not have the respect or support of the people". And that, therefore, his Administration will work closely, at least for now, with the heirs, accomplices, and subordinates of Maduro to "make Venezuela great again."
The world held its breath when the president said that the United States would take over governing the country until it could guarantee "a safe transition", or that he was not "afraid to deploy troops on the ground," or boasted of an "attack on Venezuelan sovereignty," awakening memories and ghosts of Iraq, Afghanistan, and nation-building. But he quickly opened his mouth, with surprising surprise and indignation, as he outlined his intentions and clarified his words, closing the door to the aspirations of the opposition that won the last elections and extending a hand to the usual regime, as long as they hand over the management of their oil to American companies.
He said it dozens and dozens of times in his speech. Oil, oil, oil, and stability. "We are going to make our huge American oil companies, the largest in the world, spend billions of dollars, fix the severely damaged infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country. We are going to replace them and make a lot of money to take care of the country." The Rodríguez brothers, willing to do whatever it takes to survive, can sell a scenario of stability and transition in the face of the chaos of a regime change. And the White House extends a hand, at least for now. "We will not allow others to take charge", Trump concluded regarding the possibility of third countries wanting to fill a power vacuum.
The relationship and obsession of Donald Trump with Venezuela and Maduro have been structured on numerous and very different axes: the media, the personal, the ideological, the geopolitical, the economic, the migratory, or the oil. Not to mention the spectacle factor. "I literally saw it as if I were watching a TV show... the speed, the violence... the speed, the violence... it was amazing (...) There is no other country on Earth that can carry out such a maneuver," he said proudly this Saturday about the special forces operation, repeating almost word for word his excitement when he detailed the aerial deployment with which he attacked Iran.
Trump has enjoyed the spotlight, being able to do something that is beyond anyone else's reach, as Putin has despaired with Zelenski. But his moves have little to do with the democratic aspirations of Venezuelans. "Trump talks about attacking countries and seizing their leaders as a symbol of status, a sign of American greatness", points out Stephen Wertheim, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment and a professor at Yale University. And he can explain to the MAGA movement that it is not an expansive foreign policy but a defensive one. In his hemisphere, his backyard, to prevent the arrival of drugs and set the conditions for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans to return to their country. That's how he explained it last night.
In reality, there is much more at play. As Ryan Evans pointed out yesterday, founder of War on the Rocks, a specialized media outlet in strategy, defense, and foreign affairs, Trump operates more on instincts than on ideologies or sophisticated thinking. If he sees an opportunity, he seizes it. If he has a better hand, he plays it. And here he has seen a geopolitical, economic, natural resources opportunity, and a way to deter his rivals. "Many assume that Trump has a doctrine comparable to past doctrines. Respected friends keep saying that he follows a great strategy of 'defensive realism,' a 'Jacksonian' or that he is 'isolationist.' Trump may be surrounded by people with doctrines, but he does not have them. Secondly, people interpret his public statements as bluffs or commitments when they can be both. And thirdly, they underestimate the conflict within the Administration and how this alters the results. Venezuela is a kind of escape valve for the hawks, especially Rubio, but also others. There is no one in the Administration holding a truly aggressive stance towards Russia or China, so these and Iran have been his only options," he explained.
Trump attacks (and since taking office on January 20, 2025, he has authorized at least 626 airstrikes in seven different countries, 70 more than Joe Biden in his entire four-year term) because he can, pleasing the military and keeping them in shape, imposing respect but also a sense of urgency in Beijing. He closed Venezuelan airspace and its coasts because he can and keeps Chinese ships away. He attacked dozens of boats, allegedly in international waters, because he can. He boarded oil tankers and seized their cargo because he can. He said the oil belongs to him because he can. And he captured and removed Maduro from the country, perhaps facilitating a regime change, to make it clear that he can and that international law is completely foreign to him. Trump sees life as a zero-sum game and relies on the idea that power is useless if not used. Being the most powerful nation on the planet and not taking advantage of it seems ridiculous to him, like losers.