The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on Monday a series of economic measures to increase pressure on the Iranian regime, as protests and repression spread throughout the country. The decision is the first step and targets, at least theoretically, Russia, Turkey, India, or China, the main trading partners among the major nations and the largest buyers of its oil. But everything indicates that this is not the last or the most aggressive. Trump is considering different military options, from new bombings on Iranian nuclear facilities to their missile silos, including a cyberattack. As hours pass and more details of Tehran's retaliations are known, the President is leaning towards taking action, as reported by the main American media.
"Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a 25% tariff on all business conducted with the United States of America. This Order is final. Thank you for your attention!" the President wrote on his social media, without providing further details. Hours earlier, his spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, had acknowledged that airstrikes were "one of the many options being considered", but that "diplomacy is always the President's first option." Something that, after the summer attacks precisely in Iran, or the operation in Venezuela, is much harder to believe. "What is publicly heard from the Iranian regime is very different from the messages the Administration receives privately, and I believe the President is interested in exploring those messages," added Leavitt.
According to The Wall Street Journal, "Trump has not yet made a definitive decision on his actions and will meet with top advisors on Tuesday to define his strategy. Options could include ordering military attacks on regime facilities or launching cyberattacks, approving new sanctions, and promoting social media operations against the regime." Vice President JD Vance leads the faction opposed to any military intervention, appealing to the principles of the MAGA movement and the Administration's promises to forget about conflicts on other continents and focus on the needs of Americans. But as time passes, Trump is becoming more attracted to the power of the U.S. military, the endless possibilities it opens up, and even the spectacle factor, from secretly mobilizing dozens of planes that cross the entire planet and emerge unscathed from the Persian mountains to the operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro without American casualties.
"Mr. President: your decisive leadership in economically isolating this regime with your actions today is admirable. Your promise to support the protesters and warn the regime that it will not tolerate the killings has sparked the largest demonstration against this fanatical regime since its founding. I believe the Iranian regime has crossed the red line. They are mass murdering their people and mocking your leadership. It is time to take decisive military action, without troops on the ground, and pursue those who commit the murders. Let's make Iran great again," urges veteran Republican Senator Lindsey Graham from the opposite side, a well-known hawk and supporter of immediate attacks to force a regime change. With direct threats, mentions of drones, or a nod to a possible forced exile in Moscow for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Within the Administration, many officials fear that Trump will once again be influenced by Benjamin Netanyahu and the promises of a new Middle East. They fear U.S. involvement, but above all, that the mere possibility could "fuel regime propaganda, claiming that the United States and Israel are secretly orchestrating the protests," according to officials cited by The New York Times.
Sources from the WSJ add that Trump currently seems inclined to attack Iran again, but that "he could change his mind depending on events in the country and conversations with his advisors. Some officials indicated that Trump could strike first and then seek serious talks with Tehran, something the President seemed to suggest on Sunday. "Perhaps we need to act before the meeting due to what is happening", he said in reference to the meeting with the national security and intelligence team on Tuesday.
A logistical problem, pointed out by those opposed to a bombing, is that the United States does not have any aircraft carriers in waters close to Iran right now. The quickest option, according to military experts, would be to redirect the USS Abraham Lincoln from the South China Sea, something Joe Biden did in the past. This worries the Pentagon. Another option is to repeat what was seen a few months ago, but it requires a more complicated deployment from much more distant bases and without coverage.