There are two major questions, closely related, currently shaping the political landscape in the United States. The first, and most important, is whether President Donald Trump is truly prepared for a de-escalation of the situation in Minnesota, following the death of two protesters, the shooting of an immigrant, and the hundreds of documented cases of arbitrary detentions, abuse of power, threats, and police excesses. Especially against minors and vulnerable individuals.
The second, whether the federal Government will be forced to shut down this Friday, once again, as the Democratic Party seems determined to cut funding for responsible agencies, especially ICE.
In the last 48 hours, Trump has given some signals that seemed to indicate not a 180-degree turn, but at least a change in tactics. First, he removed the head of the border patrol in charge of federal agents in Minneapolis, Gregory Bovino. At the same time, he decided to send his immigration czar, Tom Homan, to negotiate with local authorities.
He clearly distanced himself from his Administration's position over the weekend, which had labeled Alex Pretti, the man who was shot dead on the street on Saturday, as a "domestic terrorist" and "killer." Considering sacrificing the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem. He even wrote on his social media that he had spoken with the state governor and the mayor of Minneapolis, and that they had all gotten along very well.
Furthermore, the Department of Homeland Security has stated that the agents who shot and killed Alex Pretti are on "administrative leave", which is standard procedure when an agent is involved in a shooting. This should be automatic in such situations, but Bovino, when asked before being relieved of duty, said they had been reassigned to other locations, and that administrative leave was only a possibility, not a fact. Today, his former superiors have stated that he was mistaken in saying that, a new example of how they are throwing him under the bus, making him appear directly responsible and almost solely responsible for the recorded excesses.
However, at the same time, the Administration continues with its objectives, which include mass detentions not only of convicted criminals, but of anyone who is an immigrant or appears to be one. Videos of ICE and Customs and Border Protection agents separating families, threatening protesters, mocking citizens from their hotels by showing their buttocks, and even attempting to raid the Ecuadorian consulate continue to surface.
The Government continues to crack down on those who oppose the raids. And the President himself warned the mayor on Wednesday that "he is playing with fire", after the mayor reiterated that his city is a sanctuary city that does not cooperate with anti-immigration forces. "Surprisingly, Mayor Jacob Frey has just declared that in Minneapolis, 'federal immigration laws are not and will not be enforced.' This comes after having had a very productive conversation with him. Could someone close to him explain that this statement constitutes a serious violation of the law and that he is playing with fire?" he wrote.
"Today [yesterday] I am in Minneapolis. Federal agents arrested 16 rioters for allegedly assaulting federal law enforcement officers, individuals who have resisted and obstructed their work. We hope there will be more arrests. I have said it before and I will say it again: NOTHING will prevent President Trump and this Department of Justice from enforcing the law," stated Attorney General Pam Bondi, sharing on social media photos of the detainees, American citizens whom she has identified by name on her X account.
Bondi's presence, who three days ago requested in a letter to the governor the delivery of voter records, the census, and documents on Health and nutrition programs, has been interpreted as a provocation. Adding fuel to a fire that was starting to cool down, while immigration czar Homan meets with all local and state authorities to demand their collaboration in the detention, identification, and transportation of individuals. As well as protection for federal agents.
The second issue is whether all of this will lead, within 48 hours, to a new shutdown, a federal Government shutdown. Not as severe as the one experienced in October and November, but significant. Democrats have stated that they will not approve the necessary funds for the items expiring at midnight on January 31, as it includes funding for agencies like ICE. There is a broad legislative package, and the opposition has told Republicans that either they dismantle that package and approve the rest but not the funding for Homeland Security, or the federal Government will shut down.
Democrats have demanded the removal of Kristi Noem, the withdrawal of ICE from Minnesota, a reduction in agents, and an end to random persecution. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reiterated on Wednesday that he has no intention of splitting the six-bill funding package, affecting the Departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, Homeland Security, and others. "I think at this point the conversation should be between the White House and the Democrats. If they have any specific demands, they should make them known," he insisted.
"President Trump has calmed the situation in Minnesota," stated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, saying that the President is "urging" Congress to avoid a partial shutdown. "The White House is open to negotiations," he added. "What concerns us the most is that an independent investigation is carried out and that these roaming patrols that are terrorizing Minneapolis are stopped," declared Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, the main representative of his party on the Homeland Security funding committee. "We are also concerned about addressing these issues related to secret police and ensuring that agents are identified through body cameras," he added.
Specific details will be outlined throughout the day, in various Capitol Hill lunches and a series of scheduled meetings afterward. According to internal polls circulating among senators, seen by Politico, "broad bipartisan majorities of voters oppose ICE's illegal tactics, including detaining American citizens (73%), entering homes without a warrant (79%), and not wearing clearly identifiable uniforms (70%).
A calculation by the Congressional Budget Office estimates that deployments of the National Guard in six cities in the U.S. cost almost 500 million dollars by the end of 2025. Continuing with the deployments, at least with the current personnel volume, would cost around 93 million dollars per month. In general, deploying 1,000 National Guard troops in a U.S. city in 2026 would cost between 18 and 21 million dollars per month, depending on the area.